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Why AI Stock dropped -2.53% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$11.55 -2.53% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.48

C3.ai Inc. (AI) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 37/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $1.91B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, C3.ai Inc. (NYSE: AI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $11.55 (-2.53% 1D, market cap $1.91B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, AI ranks #496 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AI compare to MQ and BL in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), AI carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 30.9%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, MQ (Marqeta Inc. (Class A)) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.88B) and BL (BlackLine Inc.) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 79.9x, ROIC 20.6%, cap $1.97B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PRGS leads on earnings multiple (25.1x) while BL leads on capital efficiency (20.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AI?
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Per AI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-04-30, CIK 0001577526), C3.ai Inc. generated $250.3M in revenue (-35.7% YoY), -$470.4M in net income, and -$192.1M in free cash flow against $895.8M in total assets and $79.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.47 (-0.65%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (37/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510037
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- · Rk D-
Cash (5)Whales (13)SEC (7)Macro (9)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.4% Base Target
$18 Bull$10 Base$8 Bear
📬 FREE AI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (37/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AI SCORES 37/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (35% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±11.4% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+9/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 39% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 52.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
45
Grade D$11.67+1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
42
Grade D$11.79+4.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
40
Grade D$12.33-6.3% Next Q
Current
37
Grade D-$11.55-8.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (45) → D- (37)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AI currently carries a cautious 37/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($11.18) and Max Pain ($12.13) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $18.41.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AI• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AI Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 37%NO 63%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why AI Stock dropped -2.53% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

C3.ai Inc. (AI) dropped -2.53% to $11.55, trading at 39% of its 52-week range ($7.68 – $17.53). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 39% of its 52-week range ($7.68 – $17.53) with RSI-14 at 52.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±11.4% around $11.55 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 30.9% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
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  • ✓Walkthrough of AI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
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AI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +25.27%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $12.17H $12.17L $11.55C $11.55VOL 4.48M
RES: $13.73SUP: $7.24SMA50: $11.18SMA200: $10.02
$14.95$13.04$11.13$9.23$7.32RES $13.73SUP $7.24$11.552026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AI Butterfly Map → + Track AI →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
27.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -35.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AI)

Technology Rank #496 of 715 ⚔️ MQ vs AI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (AI vs. MQ, BL, PRGS, CNXC)

Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, C3.ai Inc. (AI) ranks #496 by composite RQD confidence (37/100, grade D-) and #295 by equity capitalization ($1.91B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PRGS leads on earnings valuation at 25.1x trailing P/E, while BL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 20.6% ROIC and 75.2% gross margin. PRGS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with AI at 37/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AI ACTIVE
C3.ai Inc.
D- 37/100 — 30.9% -35.0% -2.53% $1.91B Benchmark Subject
MQ
Marqeta Inc. (Class A)
D 46/100 — 70.0% -35.0% +2.87% $1.88B /mq-vs-ai →
BL
BlackLine Inc.
D+ 58/100 79.9x 75.2% 20.6% +0.83% $1.97B /bl-vs-ai →
PRGS
Progress Software Corporation
B 73/100 25.1x 80.8% 8.5% -0.55% $1.84B /prgs-vs-ai →
CNXC
Concentrix Corporation
D 46/100 — 35.0% -10.4% +2.52% $1.84B /cnxc-vs-ai →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-04-30 • CIK 0001577526 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-04-30), C3.ai Inc. (AI) reported GAAP revenue of $250.3M (-35.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $389.1M , and -19.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$470.4M, operating cash flow of -$190.2M, and free cash flow of -$192.1M (-332.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, AI closed FY2025 with $895.8M in total assets against $79.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.28, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2026-04-30 $250.3M -$470.4M -$190.2M -$192.1M $895.8M $79.3M
FY2024 (FY) 2025-04-30 $389.1M -$288.7M -$41.4M -$44.4M $1.06B $87.7M
FY2023 (FY) 2024-04-30 $310.6M -$279.7M -$62.4M -$76.3M $1.08B $251.8M

3. AI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, C3.ai Inc. (NYSE: AI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $11.55 (-2.53% 1D, market cap $1.91B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, AI ranks #496 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AI compare to MQ and BL in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), AI carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 30.9%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, MQ (Marqeta Inc. (Class A)) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.88B) and BL (BlackLine Inc.) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 79.9x, ROIC 20.6%, cap $1.97B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PRGS leads on earnings multiple (25.1x) while BL leads on capital efficiency (20.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AI?

Per AI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-04-30, CIK 0001577526), C3.ai Inc. generated $250.3M in revenue (-35.7% YoY), -$470.4M in net income, and -$192.1M in free cash flow against $895.8M in total assets and $79.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AI last traded at $11.55 (-2.53% on volume of 2,941,173 shares), positioning the stock +3.31% above its 50-day simple moving average ($11.18) and +15.27% above its 200-day simple moving average ($10.02). Across its 52-week range of $7.68 to $17.53, AI sits at the 39.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.4% ($10.23 to $12.87).

Direct Sub-Reports: AI RQD Cockpit AI 12M Forecast AI Earnings & Move AI Dividends & DRIP AI Insiders & 13F AI Whale Options AI Profit Sankey AI News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 37/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AI — C3.ai Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-04-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

C3.ai Inc. (AI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 37/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $11.55 (-2.53% 1D, market capitalization $1.91B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (5/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of 30.9%, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of -9.82%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (13/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (7/20): Incorporates a 1.30x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.28, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.10x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

C3.ai Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Technology sector, operating in the Computer Software: Prepackaged Software industry..0B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2026-04-30), C3.ai Inc. (AI) reported $250.3M in annual revenue (up from $389.1M in FY2024, -35.7% YoY) and -$470.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($310.6M revenue, -$279.7M net income) through FY2025, AI scaled operating cash flow to -$190.2M and free cash flow to -$192.1M, backed by $895.8M in total assets against $79.3M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 37/100): Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -9.82% and institutional whale pillar of 13/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 5/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 13/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $7.68 – $17.53 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.30x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order links are recorded in the source data. The only sector context available is the Technology / Computer Software: Prepackaged Software classification. Investors should note that the Red-tagged "execution reset" coverage item is the sole risk-watch signal, and the source does not describe what that reset involves.

  • Key Question #1: Can AI sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Computer Software: Prepackaged Software peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $250.3M and free cash flow of -$192.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $79.3M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is AI's 36.0x forward P/E multiple to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.30x)?

AI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for C3.ai Inc. (AI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AI Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $11.55?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AI:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $13.75 (+16.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Institutional accumulation (15/20 whale flow) and a Green-tagged analyst upgrade signal support despite negative cash flow.

Picked up a starter position in AI in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $11.85. Institutional accumulation (15/20 whale flow) and a Green-tagged analyst upgrade signal support despite negative cash flow.. Trading inside a $7.68–$17.45 52-week range with -9.82% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Computer Software: Prepackaged Software multiples expand this quarter.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — AI's 7/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $9.72 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $11.85

ROIC of -35% and FCF yield of -9.82% with FY 2025 revenue down to $250.3M leave the cash engine scoring only 5/20.

ROIC of -35% and FCF yield of -9.82% with FY 2025 revenue down to $250.3M leave the cash engine scoring only 5/20.. Look at the math on AI: paying 36.0x forward P/E for -35.0% ROIC and -60.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Computer Software: Prepackaged Software demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $10.43 before getting long.

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