MARKET WIREYahoo! Finance Canada • 21h ago
Alico, Inc. (ALCO) Seasonal Returns Chart - Yahoo FinanceYahoo! Finance Canada report covering Alico Inc. (ALCO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Why ALCO Stock slipped -0.19% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$37.33 -0.19% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $37.25
Alico Inc. (ALCO) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 38/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT
Cap $277.5M
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Is ALCO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Alico Inc. (NASDAQ: ALCO) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $37.33 (-0.19% 1D, market cap $277.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 8/20. Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, ALCO ranks #107 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does ALCO compare to VFF and BNC in the Consumer Staples sector?
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Within the Consumer Staples sector (Farming/Seeds/Milling), ALCO carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of -30.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, VFF (Village Farms International Inc.) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 9.8x, ROIC 10.5%, cap $305.7M) and BNC (BNB Standard Corporation) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $241.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VFF leads on earnings multiple (9.8x) while VFF leads on capital efficiency (10.5% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALCO?
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Per ALCO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0000003545), Alico Inc. generated $44.1M in revenue (-5.5% YoY), -$147.3M in net income, and $14.6M in free cash flow against $195.0M in total assets and $82.8M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $37.25 (-0.22%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 33.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (38/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ALCO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (38/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ALCO SCORES 38/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+8/20 pts (21% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 33.2% FCF Margin ($14.6M FCF) & 0% Gross Margin
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (21% of score)
Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade D$38.25-2.4% Next Q
46
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$37.35+0.1% Next Q
43
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$37.37-0.1% Next Q
41
CurrentGrade D-$37.33-7.8% Hist 90D α
38
Trajectory: D (46) → D- (38)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ALCO Turnaround Squeeze
While ALCO currently carries a cautious 38/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($38.73) and Max Pain ($39.20) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $47.26.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ALCO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ALCO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why ALCO Stock slipped -0.19% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Alico Inc. (ALCO) slipped -0.19% to $37.33, trading at 44% of its 52-week range ($31.32 – $45.01). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 44% of its 52-week range ($31.32 – $45.01) with RSI-14 at 41.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±3.4% around $37.33 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 0% gross margin and $14.6M annual free cash flow.
Live ALCO Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREStock Traders Daily • 1d ago
(ALCO) as a Liquidity Pulse for Institutional TacticsStock Traders Daily report covering Alico Inc. (ALCO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREYahoo Finance • 65d ago
Alico Maps Shift From Citrus to Florida Land Development at IDEAS ConferenceAlico (NASDAQ:ALCO) outlined its transition from citrus production to a land-management and real estate-entitlement strategy at the Midwest IDEAS Investor Conference, as the Florida-based company seeks to monetize its ag
CATALYSTYahoo Finance • 77d ago
Alico (ALCO) Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptLand leasing income drove revenue growth as citrus winds down and development advances.
CATALYSTYahoo Finance • 82d ago
Alico 3Q Revenue Jumps on Booming Land Management Strategy – Quarterly Update ReportDownload the Complete Report Here Alico, Inc. (ALCO) New Lease Structure Broadens Land Monetization Strategy; Stronger Liquidity Extends Runway Through FY29 Key Takeaways: 3Q FY26 reinforced ALCO’s post-citrus transition
RISK WATCHYahoo Finance • 83d ago
Alico to Present at the 17th Annual Midwest IDEAS Investor ConferenceFORT MYERS, Fla., Aug. 12, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Alico, Inc. (“Alico” or the “Company”) (Nasdaq: ALCO) today announced that John Kiernan, the Company’s President and Chief Executive Officer, will present and host one-
CATALYSTYahoo Finance • 83d ago
Alico Q3 Earnings Call HighlightsAlico (NASDAQ:ALCO) reported higher third-quarter revenue and a return to profitability as the company continued its transition away from citrus operations and toward land management, agricultural leasing and real estate
MARKET WIREYahoo Finance • 84d ago
Alico (ALCO) Surpasses Q3 Earnings and Revenue EstimatesAlico (ALCO) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of +139.73% and +247.69%, respectively, for the quarter ended June 2026. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?
RISK WATCHYahoo Finance • 153d ago
Juicy Florida Land Monetization: Alico President & CEO John Kiernan, Live at NasdaqWatch the interview below, or Click HERE: Exec Edge hosted a fireside chat on June 1 at Nasdaq MarketSite with John Kiernan, President and Chief Executive Officer at Alico, Inc. (Nasdaq: ALCO). The in-person interview wa
MARKET WIREYahoo Finance • 165d ago
How Is Alico Inc (ALCO) Doing As It Exits Citrus Business?Alico Inc (NASDAQ:ALCO) is one of the best small cap agriculture stocks to buy now. The stock has risen almost 30% over the past six months, and analysts see more upside potential. Alico Inc (NASDAQ:ALCO) is winding down
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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ALCO)
- ✓Walkthrough of ALCO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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ALCO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -8.37%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $37.57H $37.57L $37.33C $37.33VOL 18.3K
RES: $44.38SUP: $36.49SMA50: $38.73SMA200: $40.20
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
ALCO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -5.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ALCO today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ALCO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ALCO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ALCO)
Consumer Staples Rank #107 of 147
⚔️ VFF vs ALCO Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (ALCO vs. VFF, BNC, LND, LMNR)
Industry: Farming/Seeds/Milling (25 Tracked Issuers)Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Alico Inc. (ALCO) ranks #107 by composite RQD confidence (38/100, grade D-) and #95 by equity capitalization ($277.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VFF leads on earnings valuation at 9.8x trailing P/E, while VFF leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.5% ROIC and 40.6% gross margin. VFF currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 53/100 (D+) compared with ALCO at 38/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALCO
ACTIVE
Alico Inc. | D- | 38/100 | — | -30.0% | -35.0% | -0.19% | $277.5M | Benchmark Subject |
| VFF Village Farms International Inc. | D+ | 53/100 | 9.8x | 40.6% | 10.5% | +4.40% | $305.7M | /vff-vs-alco → |
| BNC BNB Standard Corporation | D- | 37/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -5.25% | $241.4M | /bnc-vs-alco → |
| LND Brasilagro Brazilian Agric Real Estate Co Sponsored ADR (Brazil) | D | 45/100 | — | — | — | +0.63% | $326.5M | /lnd-vs-alco → |
| LMNR Limoneira Co | E | 19/100 | — | -0.7% | -6.0% | -0.37% | $193.6M | /lmnr-vs-alco → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0000003545 ↗In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Alico Inc. (ALCO) reported GAAP revenue of $44.1M (-5.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $46.6M , and +10.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$147.3M, operating cash flow of $20.1M, and free cash flow of $14.6M (+130.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, ALCO closed FY2025 with $195.0M in total assets against $82.8M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-09-30 | $44.1M | -$147.3M | $20.1M | $14.6M | $195.0M | $82.8M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-09-30 | $46.6M | $7.0M | -$30.5M | -$48.4M | $397.6M | $82.0M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-09-30 | $39.8M | $1.8M | -$6.3M | -$6.3M | — | — |
3. ALCO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs ALCO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-03, Alico Inc. (NASDAQ: ALCO) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $37.33 (-0.19% 1D, market cap $277.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 8/20. Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, ALCO ranks #107 in composite RQD confidence.
How does ALCO compare to VFF and BNC in the Consumer Staples sector?
Within the Consumer Staples sector (Farming/Seeds/Milling), ALCO carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of -30.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, VFF (Village Farms International Inc.) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 9.8x, ROIC 10.5%, cap $305.7M) and BNC (BNB Standard Corporation) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $241.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VFF leads on earnings multiple (9.8x) while VFF leads on capital efficiency (10.5% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALCO?
Per ALCO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0000003545), Alico Inc. generated $44.1M in revenue (-5.5% YoY), -$147.3M in net income, and $14.6M in free cash flow against $195.0M in total assets and $82.8M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is ALCO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
ALCO last traded at $37.33 (-0.19% on volume of 18,143 shares), positioning the stock -3.61% below its 50-day simple moving average ($38.73) and -7.14% below its 200-day simple moving average ($40.20). Across its 52-week range of $31.32 to $45.01, ALCO sits at the 43.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.4% ($36.06 to $38.60).
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 38/100 (D-)
✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED
ALCO — Alico Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-09-30
1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Alico Inc. (ALCO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 38/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $37.33 (-0.19% 1D, market capitalization $277.5M).
- Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of -30.0%, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of 5.25%.
- Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (8/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
- Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.20, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.83x.
2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory
Alico Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified under the Consumer Staples sector and the Farming/Seeds/Milling industry. The profile identifies the company as operating in Farming/Seeds/Milling with a market capitalization of $0.3B.
In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-09-30), Alico Inc. (ALCO) reported $44.1M in annual revenue (up from $46.6M in FY2024, -5.5% YoY) and -$147.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($39.8M revenue, $1.8M net income) through FY2025, ALCO scaled operating cash flow to $20.1M and free cash flow to $14.6M, backed by $195.0M in total assets against $82.8M in total debt.
3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff
- 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 38/100): Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 5.25% and institutional whale pillar of 6/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $31.32 – $45.01 52-week range.
- 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.
4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch
Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are therefore — The only sector context available is the Consumer Staples classification and the Farming/Seeds/Milling industry, with beta of 1.0 indicating market-level sensitivity.
- Key Question #1: Can ALCO sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Farming/Seeds/Milling peers over the next 4 quarters?
- Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $44.1M and free cash flow of $14.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $82.8M in total debt?
- Key Question #3: How sensitive is ALCO's equity valuation to Consumer Staples capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?
ALCO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Alico Inc. (ALCO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 21h ago
Alico, Inc. (ALCO) Seasonal Returns Chart - Yahoo Finance Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Alico Inc. (ALCO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Traders Daily • 1d ago
(ALCO) as a Liquidity Pulse for Institutional Tactics Stock Traders Daily report covering Alico Inc. (ALCO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 65d ago
Alico Maps Shift From Citrus to Florida Land Development at IDEAS Conference Alico (NASDAQ:ALCO) outlined its transition from citrus production to a land-management and real estate-entitlement strategy at the Midwest IDEAS Investor Conference, as the Florida-based company seeks to monetize its ag
🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 77d ago
Alico (ALCO) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript Land leasing income drove revenue growth as citrus winds down and development advances.
🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 82d ago
Alico 3Q Revenue Jumps on Booming Land Management Strategy – Quarterly Update Report Download the Complete Report Here Alico, Inc. (ALCO) New Lease Structure Broadens Land Monetization Strategy; Stronger Liquidity Extends Runway Through FY29 Key Takeaways: 3Q FY26 reinforced ALCO’s post-citrus transition
🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 83d ago
Alico to Present at the 17th Annual Midwest IDEAS Investor Conference FORT MYERS, Fla., Aug. 12, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Alico, Inc. (“Alico” or the “Company”) (Nasdaq: ALCO) today announced that John Kiernan, the Company’s President and Chief Executive Officer, will present and host one-
🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 83d ago
Alico Q3 Earnings Call Highlights Alico (NASDAQ:ALCO) reported higher third-quarter revenue and a return to profitability as the company continued its transition away from citrus operations and toward land management, agricultural leasing and real estate
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 84d ago
Alico (ALCO) Surpasses Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates Alico (ALCO) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of +139.73% and +247.69%, respectively, for the quarter ended June 2026. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE
3 Active Posts & Replies
ALCO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $37.33?
🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ALCO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH
🎯 Target: $45.25 (+21.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate The 5.25% FCF yield and $34.8M of FY 2025 cash show the company generated positive free cash flow of $14.6M despite operating losses.
The 5.25% FCF yield and $34.8M of FY 2025 cash show the company generated positive free cash flow of $14.6M despite operating losses.. When you look under the hood at ALCO, Fundamental Cash Engine is 8/20 with -30.0% gross margins and -35.0% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (6/20) has been quietly accumulating below $45.01. My 12M target is $45.25.
EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL
Both sides have a point here — ALCO's 8/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.
SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH
🎯 Target: $28.80 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $37.40 A -35% ROIC, -60% operating margin, and 0.2 Altman Z-Score point to a balance sheet and earnings base under severe stress.
Fading this rally in ALCO at $37.40. A -35% ROIC, -60% operating margin, and 0.2 Altman Z-Score point to a balance sheet and earnings base under severe stress.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $37.40 (52-wk range $31.32–$45.01), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.