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Alarm.com Holdings Inc. (ALRM) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$66.03 +1.80% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $66.40

Alarm.com Holdings Inc. (ALRM) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 73/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (66.1% gross margin, 65% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B β€’ BUY Cap $3.18B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ALRM Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ALRM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Alarm.com Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: ALRM) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 73/100 at a spot price of $66.03 (+1.80% 1D, market cap $3.18B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, ALRM ranks #53 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ALRM compare to TDC and INTA in the Technology sector?
β–Ό

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), ALRM carries a Roarable B (73/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 24.8x, gross margin of 66.1%, and ROIC of 64.6%. By comparison, TDC (Teradata Corporation) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 24.8x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $3.19B) and INTA (Intapp Inc.) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -9.9%, cap $3.24B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ALRM leads on earnings multiple (24.8x) while TDC leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALRM?
β–Ό

Per ALRM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001459200), Alarm.com Holdings Inc. generated $1.01B in revenue (+7.6% YoY), $131.6M in net income, and $137.0M in free cash flow against $2.14B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (66.1% gross margin)β€”profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $66.40 (+0.56%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) β€’ 13.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 73/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 13% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 69.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY β€’ B
025507510073
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw A- Β· Rk C-
Cash (16)Whales (17)SEC (13)Macro (11)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+6.8% Base Target
$83 Bull$70 Base$54 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE ALRM RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ALRM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±5.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (73/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY ALRM SCORES 73/100 (B) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+17/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (Β±5.8% realized swing band)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 13.6% FCF Margin ($137.0M FCF) & 66.1% Gross Margin

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (68.2) create a -9 pt regime headwind

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
65
Grade C+$56.29+4.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
68
Grade B-$58.68+10.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
70
Grade B$64.81+1.9% Next Q
Current
73
Grade B$66.03+7.1% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C+ (65) β†’ B (73)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ALRM Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 73/100 (B) score, ALRM faces multiple-compression risk if 24.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 63.6% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($57.33) or 200D SMA ($50.21) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($70.49) toward Bear Floor ($54.14).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ALRMβ€’ $4.8M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œALRM Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 73%NO 27%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
SEC FORM 4 Γ— 13F HEDGE FUNDS Γ— CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

ALRM Smart-Money Thermometer: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales β†’
β–² Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)β–Ό Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (ALRM)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on ALRM. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ALRM Tape Review)

  • βœ“Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • βœ“Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • βœ“Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ALRM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +39.81%⚑ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $66.54H $66.54L $64.86C $66.03VOL 721.7K
RES: $67.72SUP: $53.67SMA50: $57.33SMA200: $50.21
$69.22$61.71$54.19$46.67$39.16RES $67.72SUP $53.67$66.032026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ALRM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ ALRM Butterfly Map β†’ + Track ALRM β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
18.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ALRM today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ALRM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ALRM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ALRM)

Technology Rank #53 of 715 βš”οΈ TDC vs ALRM Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (ALRM vs. TDC, INTA, CLBT, VIA)

Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Alarm.com Holdings Inc. (ALRM) ranks #53 by composite RQD confidence (73/100, grade B) and #245 by equity capitalization ($3.18B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ALRM leads on earnings valuation at 24.8x trailing P/E, while TDC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 59.4% gross margin. ALRM currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 73/100 (B).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ALRM ACTIVE
Alarm.com Holdings Inc.
B 73/100 24.8x 66.1% 64.6% +1.80% $3.18B Benchmark Subject
TDC
Teradata Corporation
C+ 66/100 24.8x 59.4% 85.0% -1.87% $3.19B /tdc-vs-alrm β†’
INTA
Intapp Inc.
D+ 58/100 β€” 74.0% -9.9% +6.68% $3.24B /inta-vs-alrm β†’
CLBT
Cellebrite DI Ltd.
C+ 69/100 39.4x 84.2% 14.6% -0.16% $3.05B /clbt-vs-alrm β†’
VIA
Via Transportation Inc. (Class A)
D 50/100 β€” 39.6% -23.6% +0.03% $2.97B /via-vs-alrm β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001459200 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Alarm.com Holdings Inc. (ALRM) reported GAAP revenue of $1.01B (+7.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $939.8M , and +14.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $131.6M, operating cash flow of $153.3M, and free cash flow of $137.0M (-30.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, ALRM closed FY2025 with $2.14B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.94, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.01B $131.6M $153.3M $137.0M $2.14B β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $939.8M $122.5M $206.4M $196.3M $2.04B β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $881.7M $80.3M $136.0M $136.0M β€” β€”

3. ALRM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ALRM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Alarm.com Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: ALRM) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 73/100 at a spot price of $66.03 (+1.80% 1D, market cap $3.18B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, ALRM ranks #53 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ALRM compare to TDC and INTA in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), ALRM carries a Roarable B (73/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 24.8x, gross margin of 66.1%, and ROIC of 64.6%. By comparison, TDC (Teradata Corporation) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 24.8x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $3.19B) and INTA (Intapp Inc.) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -9.9%, cap $3.24B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ALRM leads on earnings multiple (24.8x) while TDC leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALRM?

Per ALRM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001459200), Alarm.com Holdings Inc. generated $1.01B in revenue (+7.6% YoY), $131.6M in net income, and $137.0M in free cash flow against $2.14B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (66.1% gross margin)β€”profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ALRM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ALRM last traded at $66.03 (+1.80% on volume of 551,828 shares), positioning the stock +15.18% above its 50-day simple moving average ($57.33) and +31.51% above its 200-day simple moving average ($50.21). Across its 52-week range of $41.49 to $67.41, ALRM sits at the 94.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 68.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±5.8% ($62.20 to $69.86).

Direct Sub-Reports: ALRM RQD Cockpit ALRM 12M Forecast ALRM Earnings & Move ALRM Dividends & DRIP ALRM Insiders & 13F ALRM Whale Options ALRM Profit Sankey ALRM News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 73/100 (B) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ALRM β€” Alarm.com Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Alarm.com Holdings Inc. (ALRM) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 73/100, corresponding to a B letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $66.03 (+1.80% 1D, market capitalization $3.18B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (16/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 64.6%, gross margin of 66.1%, operating margin of 13.2%, and free cash flow yield of 4.20%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (17/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.94, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Alarm.com Holdings Inc. (ALRM) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Technology sector, within the Computer Software: Prepackaged Software industry..3B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Alarm.com Holdings Inc. (ALRM) reported $1.01B in annual revenue (up from $939.8M in FY2024, +7.6% YoY) and $131.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($881.7M revenue, $80.3M net income) through FY2025, ALRM scaled operating cash flow to $153.3M and free cash flow to $137.0M, backed by $2.14B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (B β€’ RQD 73/100): Strong cash generator (66.1% gross margin)β€”profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 16/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 17/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $41.49 – $67.41 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 24.8x trailing P/E and 15.6x EV/EBITDA against 13.2% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are therefore β€” Investors should note that the RSI reading of 85 and the break below the 50-day moving average, both cited in the news wire, point to near-term price volatility; the third-quarter results on November 5, 2026 are a scheduled event that could alter the current setup.

  • Key Question #1: Can ALRM sustain or expand its 13.2% operating margin and 64.6% ROIC against Computer Software: Prepackaged Software peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.01B and free cash flow of $137.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ALRM's 23.1x forward P/E multiple to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ALRM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Alarm.com Holdings Inc. (ALRM) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to ALRM Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ALRM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $66.03?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ALRM 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ALRM:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Fundamental Long-Only πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $78.48 (+21.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Per the RQD rating, ROIC of 64.6% and Piotroski F of 8/9 indicate strong capital efficiency and balance-sheet quality.

Per the RQD rating, ROIC of 64.6% and Piotroski F of 8/9 indicate strong capital efficiency and balance-sheet quality.. When you look under the hood at ALRM, Fundamental Cash Engine is 16/20 with 66.1% gross margins and 64.6% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (17/20) has been quietly accumulating below $67.41. My 12M target is $78.48.

RetailWhale_TX πŸ‚ BULL

Both sides have a point here β€” ALRM's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $55.13 (-15.0%)
Spot @ $64.86

Per the RQD rating, macro regime fit scores only 11 of 20, and P/E (TTM) of 24.8 leaves limited valuation cushion.

Fading this rally in ALRM at $64.86. Per the RQD rating, macro regime fit scores only 11 of 20, and P/E (TTM) of 24.8 leaves limited valuation cushion.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $64.86 (52-wk range $41.49–$67.41), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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