Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$33.17 +0.42% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $33.13

Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $823.4M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ALRS Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ALRS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-02, Alerus Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: ALRS) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $33.17 (+0.42% 1D, market cap $823.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ALRS ranks #350 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ALRS compare to IBCP and SPFI in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), ALRS carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 47.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.1%. By comparison, IBCP (Independent Bank Corporation) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 12.0x, ROIC 13.6%, cap $819.2M) and SPFI (South Plains Financial Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 14.2x, ROIC 11.8%, cap $832.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, IBCP leads on earnings multiple (12.0x) while IBCP leads on capital efficiency (13.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALRS?
▼

Per ALRS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000903419), Alerus Financial Corporation generated $0 in revenue, $17.4M in net income, and $58.8M in free cash flow against $5.23B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 47x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $33.13 (-0.11%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 1.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510063
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C
Cash (12)Whales (14)SEC (13)Macro (12)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.3% Base Target
$40 Bull$34 Base$26 Bear
📬 FREE ALRS RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ALRS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ALRS SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.7% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 8 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
55
Grade C$31.06+0.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
58
Grade C$31.16+4.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
60
Grade C$32.52+2% Next Q
Current
63
Grade C$33.17+0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (55) → C (63)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ALRS Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, ALRS faces multiple-compression risk if 47.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 47x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($32.37) or 200D SMA ($28.85) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($33.92) toward Bear Floor ($26.46).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ALRS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ALRS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
4.33% Total Yield
2.53% Cash ($0.84/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
88/100 • FORTRESS PAYOUT
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
23% of FCF
8 consecutive years of payout growth
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (9.3% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $24,333

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $1,054/yr
$10.9K
Yr 1
$11.9K
Yr 2
$13.1K
Yr 3
$14.3K
Yr 4
$15.6K
Yr 5
$17.0K
Yr 6
$18.6K
Yr 7
$20.4K
Yr 8
$22.3K
Yr 9
$24.3K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Cash-Flow & Quality Compounder Desk

Cash-Fortress Compounders: Auditing Free Cash Flow & Yield Safety in ALRS & A-Rated Leaders

  • ✓12-month Bull/Base/Bear fair-value walkthrough on ALRS and its top sector peer
  • ✓Top Roarable A-Rated cash compounders with verified executive & 13F accumulation
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
ALRS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +24.75%▲ ASCENDING TRIANGLE
2026-11-02O $32.27H $33.17L $32.27C $33.17VOL 179.6K
RES: $33.99SUP: $30.40SMA50: $32.37SMA200: $28.85
$35.20$31.90$28.61$25.31$22.02RES $33.99SUP $30.40$33.172026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ALRS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
34.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ALRS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ALRS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ALRS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ALRS)

Financials Rank #350 of 1096 ⚔️ IBCP vs ALRS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ALRS vs. IBCP, SPFI, RCBC, SMBK)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) ranks #350 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #597 by equity capitalization ($823.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, IBCP leads on earnings valuation at 12.0x trailing P/E, while IBCP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.6% ROIC and — gross margin. IBCP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with ALRS at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ALRS ACTIVE
Alerus Financial Corporation
C 63/100 47.2x — 3.1% +0.42% $823.4M Benchmark Subject
IBCP
Independent Bank Corporation
B 73/100 12.0x — 13.6% -1.43% $819.2M /ibcp-vs-alrs →
SPFI
South Plains Financial Inc.
B- 70/100 14.2x — 11.8% -0.41% $832.5M /spfi-vs-alrs →
RCBC
River City Bank
C- 61/100 — — — -1.29% $834.2M /rcbc-vs-alrs →
SMBK
SmartFinancial Inc.
C 63/100 16.7x — 9.1% -1.22% $839.0M /smbk-vs-alrs →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000903419

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $17.4M, operating cash flow of $67.5M, and free cash flow of $58.8M (+527.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, ALRS closed FY2025 with $5.23B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $0 $17.4M $67.5M $58.8M $5.23B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $0 $17.8M $21.7M $9.4M $5.26B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $0 $11.7M $26.8M $26.8M — —

3. ALRS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ALRS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Alerus Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: ALRS) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $33.17 (+0.42% 1D, market cap $823.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ALRS ranks #350 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ALRS compare to IBCP and SPFI in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), ALRS carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 47.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.1%. By comparison, IBCP (Independent Bank Corporation) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 12.0x, ROIC 13.6%, cap $819.2M) and SPFI (South Plains Financial Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 14.2x, ROIC 11.8%, cap $832.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, IBCP leads on earnings multiple (12.0x) while IBCP leads on capital efficiency (13.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALRS?

Per ALRS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000903419), Alerus Financial Corporation generated $0 in revenue, $17.4M in net income, and $58.8M in free cash flow against $5.23B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 47x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ALRS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ALRS last traded at $33.17 (+0.42% on volume of 180,372 shares), positioning the stock +2.47% above its 50-day simple moving average ($32.37) and +14.97% above its 200-day simple moving average ($28.85). Across its 52-week range of $20.31 to $34.40, ALRS sits at the 91.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 61.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.7% ($31.61 to $34.73).

ALRS Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Does ALRS pay a dividend and is it safe?

Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) offers a 2.53% cash dividend yield ($0.84 annualized) and 4.33% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as FORTRESS PAYOUT.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 63/100 (C) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ALRS — Alerus Financial Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:32:35Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ALRS carries an RQD Score of 63 out of 100, a letter grade of C, and a verdict label of "Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward." Across the five pillars, the Fundamental Cash Engine scores 12 of 20, with ROIC of 3.1% and an FCF yield of 7.15%, indicating modest capital efficiency relative to the cash the company generates. The Whale 13F Flow pillar scores 14 of 20, reflecting institutional accumulation and options positioning, which is the strongest pillar in the rating. Insider Conviction scores 12 of 20 based on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow, a middling reading. Macro Regime Fit scores 12 of 20, with Beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity as the stated basis. Forensic Balance Sheet scores 13 of 20, supported by an Altman Z-Score of 2.5, a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.5.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the upside drivers in this rating are the institutional flow signal and the cash-flow yield, while the valuation tradeoff is significant: the trailing P/E of 47.2 against a stated EPS (TTM) of 0.7 means the price embeds expectations well above current reported earnings power. The Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 and ROIC of 3.1% argue against treating the business as a high-quality compounder on the present evidence. The rating frames the stock as balanced rather than attractive or unattractive, and the distribution of pillar scores (none above 14 of 20) is consistent with that middle verdict.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$0.0M$0.0M$17.4MN/A$58.8M$67.2MN/A
FY 2024$0.0M$0.0M$17.8MN/A$9.4M$61.2MN/A
FY 2023$0.0M$0.0M$11.7MN/A$26.8MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, reported net income was $17.4M for FY 2025, $17.8M for FY 2024, and $11.7M for FY 2023, while FCF was $58.8M, $9.4M, and $26.8M respectively. Revenue and operating income are reported as $0.0M in each period and cannot be interpreted from the source data. Per the market data, gross, operating, and net margins are each reported as 0%, and ROIC is 3.1%. The Altman Z-Score of 2.5 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 are cited in the Roarable RQD rating, and Debt/Equity of 0.5 is also cited there. Balance sheet posture is characterized by the source as moderate on these metrics, though debt in the financials table is not available in source data.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

The news wire contains six items, all tagged to ALRS and marked YELLOW, covering Alerus's Q3 2026 results and earnings call: a Yahoo Finance item on the Q3 earnings call, a TradingView estimates item, a Seeking Alpha item on the Q3 2026 earnings call presentation dated 2026-10-29, a Yahoo Finance headline reporting Q3 2026 net income of $19.2 Million, a MarketScreener item on Q3 and nine-month results, and a Quiver Quantitative item on the same $19.2 Million figure. The most consequential catalyst in the wire is the reported third-quarter 2026 net income of $19.2 Million, which is higher than the FY 2025 full-year net income figure in the SEC financials, though the wire does not provide the comparison basis. Risk watch items are not specified in the source data. The butterfly supply-chain graph reports no supply chain, no butterfly links, and no proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Supply chain: NONE. Butterfly links: none listed. Proprietary signals: none listed. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are not available in source data. The only sector-level information is the Financials / Major Banks classification and a stated Beta of 1.0.

Open Questions

  • What is the revenue and operating income for each reported period, given that the financials table shows $0.0M for both?
  • What is the basis for the reported $19.2 Million Q3 2026 net income relative to the FY 2025 and FY 2024 figures?
  • What is the debt balance behind the Debt/Equity ratio of 0.5, since the debt field is N/A in every period?
  • What drives the 47.2 trailing P/E given EPS (TTM) of 0.7, and how does the forward P/E of 43.9 reflect expected earnings?
  • What specific institutional 13F, insider Form 4, and Congressional trades underlie the Whale and Insider pillar scores?

ALRS Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ALRS Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ALRS Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $33.17?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ALRS 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ALRS:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $35.67 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is ALRS (C • RQD 63/100) a Buy at $33.03?

Welcome to the ALRS (Alerus Financial Corporation) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 63/100 (Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward) in Major Banks. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (47.2x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $25.10 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $33.03

Pump the brakes on ALRS — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on ALRS, but look at what you are paying: 47.2x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Alerus Financial Corporation expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

CA CashFlowKing Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $41.95 (+27.0%)
Spot @ $33.03

ALRS cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on ALRS, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Major Banks and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $33.03 (52-wk range $20.31 - $34.40), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

LIVE TAPE SPY $755.72 -0.38% QQQ $690.49 -1.44% DIA $517.13 -0.37% IWM $279.33 +0.96% NVDA $204.64 -4.22% AAPL $344.63 -1.23% MSFT $521.91 -1.55% TSLA $399.81 -0.86% PLTR $184.11 -6.27% SOFI $16.76 -4.83% IBIT $43.36 -0.94% GLD $355.78 -1.34%