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Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (AMR) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$159.19 -1.62% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $158.42

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (AMR) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 43/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.02B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AMR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (NYSE: AMR) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $159.19 (-1.62% 1D, market cap $2.02B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, AMR ranks #167 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AMR compare to NRP and BTU in the Energy sector?
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Within the Energy sector (Coal Mining), AMR carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -4.1%. By comparison, NRP (Natural Resource Partners LP) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 18.4%, cap $1.53B) and BTU (Peabody Energy Corporation) posts a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.1%, cap $2.70B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HCC leads on earnings multiple (79.3x) while NRP leads on capital efficiency (18.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AMR?
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Per AMR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001704715), Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. generated $2.12B in revenue (-28.0% YoY), -$61.7M in net income, and $144.9M in free cash flow against $2.28B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $158.43 (-0.48%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 6.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-
025507510043
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Cash (12)Whales (4)SEC (10)Macro (8)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.8% Base Target
$267 Bull$148 Base$116 Bear
📬 FREE AMR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AMR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (43/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AMR SCORES 43/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 6.8% FCF Margin ($144.9M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.18 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
51
Grade C-$183.93-13.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
48
Grade D$158.81+6.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
46
Grade D$168.57-5.6% Next Q
Current
43
Grade D-$159.19-6.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (51) → D- (43)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AMR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AMR currently carries a cautious 43/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($185.58) and Max Pain ($167.15) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $266.51.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AMR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AMR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
1.82% Total Yield
0.02% Cash ($0.03/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
88/100 • REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
0% (100% Reinvested)
8 consecutive years of payout growth
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (5.5% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $17,081

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $311/yr
$10.6K
Yr 1
$11.1K
Yr 2
$11.7K
Yr 3
$12.4K
Yr 4
$13.1K
Yr 5
$13.8K
Yr 6
$14.5K
Yr 7
$15.3K
Yr 8
$16.2K
Yr 9
$17.1K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AMR)

  • ✓Walkthrough of AMR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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AMR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.89%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $161.8H $161.8L $159.2C $159.2VOL 180.5K
RES: $256.3SUP: $155.3SMA50: $185.6SMA200: $184.2
$250.1$218.6$187.0$155.4$123.8RES $256.3SUP $155.3$159.22026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AMR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -28.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AMR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AMR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AMR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AMR)

Energy Rank #167 of 211 ⚔️ NRP vs AMR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (AMR vs. NRP, BTU, CNR, HCC)

Industry: Coal Mining (10 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (AMR) ranks #167 by composite RQD confidence (43/100, grade D-) and #119 by equity capitalization ($2.02B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HCC leads on earnings valuation at 79.3x trailing P/E, while NRP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.4% ROIC and — gross margin. NRP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with AMR at 43/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AMR ACTIVE
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc.
D- 43/100 — — -4.1% -1.62% $2.02B Benchmark Subject
NRP
Natural Resource Partners LP
B- 70/100 — — 18.4% -0.75% $1.53B /nrp-vs-amr →
BTU
Peabody Energy Corporation
E 24/100 — — -2.1% -0.22% $2.70B /btu-vs-amr →
CNR
Core Natural Resources Inc.
D- 37/100 — — -4.0% -0.25% $4.31B /cnr-vs-amr →
HCC
Warrior Met Coal Inc.
D+ 56/100 79.3x 22.4% 1.8% +0.41% $4.54B /hcc-vs-amr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001704715 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (AMR) reported GAAP revenue of $2.12B (-28.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.95B , and -38.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$61.7M, operating cash flow of $144.9M, and free cash flow of $144.9M (-75.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, AMR closed FY2025 with $2.28B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.18, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.12B -$61.7M $144.9M $144.9M $2.28B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.95B $187.6M $579.9M $579.9M $2.44B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $3.46B $722.0M $851.2M $851.2M — —

3. AMR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AMR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (NYSE: AMR) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $159.19 (-1.62% 1D, market cap $2.02B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, AMR ranks #167 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AMR compare to NRP and BTU in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Coal Mining), AMR carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -4.1%. By comparison, NRP (Natural Resource Partners LP) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 18.4%, cap $1.53B) and BTU (Peabody Energy Corporation) posts a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.1%, cap $2.70B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HCC leads on earnings multiple (79.3x) while NRP leads on capital efficiency (18.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AMR?

Per AMR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001704715), Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. generated $2.12B in revenue (-28.0% YoY), -$61.7M in net income, and $144.9M in free cash flow against $2.28B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AMR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AMR last traded at $159.19 (-1.62% on volume of 180,479 shares), positioning the stock -14.22% below its 50-day simple moving average ($185.58) and -13.56% below its 200-day simple moving average ($184.17). Across its 52-week range of $133.64 to $253.82, AMR sits at the 21.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.2% ($142.95 to $175.43).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 43/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AMR — Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (AMR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 43/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $159.19 (-1.62% 1D, market capitalization $2.02B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -4.1%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -2.9%, and free cash flow yield of 7.06%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 4.18, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (AMR) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Energy sector and Coal Mining industry. The profile does not describe the company's products, customers, or revenue model beyond its sector classification. The company reported revenue of $2.12B for FY 2025, which indicates a substantial operating business.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (AMR) reported $2.12B in annual revenue (up from $2.95B in FY2024, -28.0% YoY) and -$61.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($3.46B revenue, $722.0M net income) through FY2025, AMR scaled operating cash flow to $144.9M and free cash flow to $144.9M, backed by $2.28B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 43/100): Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 7.06% and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $133.64 – $253.82 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -2.9% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks are identified in the source data. Investors should note that this absence reflects the limits of the available data rather than confirmation that no such dependencies exist.

  • Key Question #1: Can AMR sustain or expand its -2.9% operating margin and -4.1% ROIC against Coal Mining peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.12B and free cash flow of $144.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is AMR's equity valuation to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

AMR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (AMR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AMR Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AMR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $159.19?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AMR 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AMR:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $187.84 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The FCF yield of 7.06% and Altman Z-Score of 4.18 suggest the company still generates cash and carries balance-sheet strength despite r

Here is why I am bullish on AMR here at $159.19: The FCF yield of 7.06% and Altman Z-Score of 4.18 suggest the company still generates cash and carries balance-sheet strength despite recent losses.. Compare AMR's -2.9% operating margin and -4.1% ROIC against the rest of Coal Mining. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $151.23 are getting bought.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@ForensicBear Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Coal Mining. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $130.54 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $159.19

Revenue fell from $3.46B in FY 2023 to $2.12B in FY 2025, with net income swinging to -$61.7M and ROIC at -4.1%.

Revenue fell from $3.46B in FY 2023 to $2.12B in FY 2025, with net income swinging to -$61.7M and ROIC at -4.1%.. Look at the math on AMR: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for -4.1% ROIC and -2.9% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Coal Mining demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $140.09 before getting long.

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