ROARABLE
Today ⌘ Pro Terminal Big Ideas 🎲 Predictions Screener 🦋 Butterfly 8 Analysts 🏛️ Policy 🎬 Video ★ Watchlist 🎲 Prediction Markets 📊 RQD Track Record 📅 Next Catalysts 🛡️ Overlap & Crash X-Ray 📰 Live Wire 🐋 13F Whales 🏛️ Congress & CEO Buys 🏆 $100K Arena ⌘ Pro Terminal 📐 Methodology & Corrections
Stock Ratings / Financials / AON / earnings
AJG (69) MRSH (80) WTW (74) BRO (72) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Aon plc (Ireland) (Class A) (AON) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±4.9% Move

$321.67 +0.01% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $321.06

Aon plc (Ireland) (Class A) (AON) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →
ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $68.24B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AON Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AON stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-02, Aon plc (Ireland) (Class A) (NYSE: AON) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $321.67 (+0.01% 1D, market cap $68.24B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, AON ranks #171 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AON compare to AJG and MRSH in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Specialty Insurers), AON carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 15.0%. By comparison, AJG (Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 46.0x, ROIC 5.3%, cap $68.74B) and MRSH (Marsh) posts a B+ grade (80/100 RQD, P/E 22.5x, ROIC 10.6%, cap $93.69B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AON leads on earnings multiple (18.5x) while WTW leads on capital efficiency (16.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AON?
▼

Per AON's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000315293), Aon plc (Ireland) (Class A) generated $17.18B in revenue (+9.4% YoY), $3.69B in net income, and $3.22B in free cash flow against $50.78B in total assets and $14.66B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $321.06 (-0.19%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 18.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510068
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C
Cash (13)Whales (14)SEC (15)Macro (10)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target
$401 Bull$336 Base$262 Bear
📬 FREE AON RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AON)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AON SCORES 68/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (69.4) create a -10 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
60
Grade C$274.71+8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
63
Grade C+$296.71+2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
65
Grade C+$302.50+6.3% Next Q
Current
68
Grade C+$321.67+1.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (60) → C+ (68)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AON Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, AON faces multiple-compression risk if 18.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($300.68) or 200D SMA ($325.53) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($336.15) toward Bear Floor ($262.20).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AON• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AON Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 68%NO 32%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±4.9% Swing Band

±$15.76 Expected Swing
$305.91 (-4.9%)Spot $321.67$337.43 (+4.9%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

AON Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 68/100

Trailing EPS: $17.42 • YoY Revenue Growth: 9.4%

Model Bullish Setup (68/100)Model Risk Weight (32/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$17.18B$3.69B$3.22B52%
FY 20242024-12-31$15.70B$2.65B$2.82B52%
FY 20232023-12-31$13.38B$2.56B$2.83B52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating AON & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on AON
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
AON // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +2.14%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $315.7H $321.7L $315.7C $321.7VOL 2.00M
RES: $327.9SUP: $252.7SMA50: $300.7SMA200: $325.5
$390.5$356.8$323.2$289.5$255.9RES $327.9SUP $252.7$321.72026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AON Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AON Butterfly Map → + Track AON →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
11.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +9.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AON today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AON. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AON today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AON)

Financials Rank #171 of 1096 ⚔️ AJG vs AON Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (AON vs. AJG, MRSH, WTW, BRO)

Industry: Specialty Insurers (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Aon plc (Ireland) (Class A) (AON) ranks #171 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #53 by equity capitalization ($68.24B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AON leads on earnings valuation at 18.5x trailing P/E, while WTW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.6% ROIC and — gross margin. MRSH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 80/100 (B+) compared with AON at 68/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AON ACTIVE
Aon plc (Ireland) (Class A)
C+ 68/100 18.5x — 15.0% +0.01% $68.24B Benchmark Subject
AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
C+ 69/100 46.0x — 5.3% +2.93% $68.74B /ajg-vs-aon →
MRSH
Marsh
B+ 80/100 22.5x — 10.6% +1.82% $93.69B /mrsh-vs-aon →
WTW
Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company
B 74/100 18.6x — 16.6% +1.15% $29.79B /wtw-vs-aon →
BRO
Brown & Brown Inc.
B 72/100 21.3x — 4.7% +2.83% $22.50B /bro-vs-aon →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000315293

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Aon plc (Ireland) (Class A) (AON) reported GAAP revenue of $17.18B (+9.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $15.70B , and +28.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $3.69B, operating cash flow of $3.48B, and free cash flow of $3.22B (+14.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, AON closed FY2025 with $50.78B in total assets against $14.66B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $17.18B $3.69B $3.48B $3.22B $50.78B $14.66B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $15.70B $2.65B $3.04B $2.82B $48.97B $16.27B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $13.38B $2.56B $3.44B $2.83B $37.53B $8.78B

3. AON Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AON stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Aon plc (Ireland) (Class A) (NYSE: AON) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $321.67 (+0.01% 1D, market cap $68.24B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, AON ranks #171 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AON compare to AJG and MRSH in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Specialty Insurers), AON carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 15.0%. By comparison, AJG (Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 46.0x, ROIC 5.3%, cap $68.74B) and MRSH (Marsh) posts a B+ grade (80/100 RQD, P/E 22.5x, ROIC 10.6%, cap $93.69B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AON leads on earnings multiple (18.5x) while WTW leads on capital efficiency (16.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AON?

Per AON's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000315293), Aon plc (Ireland) (Class A) generated $17.18B in revenue (+9.4% YoY), $3.69B in net income, and $3.22B in free cash flow against $50.78B in total assets and $14.66B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AON trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AON last traded at $321.67 (+0.01% on volume of 1,821,106 shares), positioning the stock +6.98% above its 50-day simple moving average ($300.68) and -1.19% below its 200-day simple moving average ($325.53). Across its 52-week range of $266.33 to $382.34, AON sits at the 47.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 69.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.9% ($305.91 to $337.43).

AON Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is AON's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Aon plc (Ireland) (Class A) (AON)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is AON stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±4.9% event move for AON, spanning a range between $305.91 and $337.43.

Direct Sub-Reports: AON RQD Cockpit AON 12M Forecast AON Earnings & Move AON Dividends & DRIP AON Insiders & 13F AON Whale Options AON Profit Sankey AON News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 68/100 (C+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

AON — Aon plc (Ireland) (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:10:36Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, AON scores 68 out of 100, equating to a C+ grade and the verdict "Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 (ROIC 15%; FCF yield 4.72%), Whale 13F Flow at 14/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 16/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 10/20 (Beta 0.94; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 15/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 7/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). Taken together, the highest-scoring pillar is insider conviction, while macro regime fit is the weakest, indicating that the stock's current positioning is supported by insider flow and a sound balance sheet but is held back by its sector sensitivity profile. For a prospective investor, the upside driver is the combination of insider and balance-sheet strength; the valuation tradeoff is that the market data shows an 18.5x trailing P/E and a 17.9x EV/EBITDA, which the rating does not reconcile against the cash-engine score. The overall verdict is a neutral hold posture with a watch condition for a breakout, not a directional recommendation.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
$321.64$68.24B18.517.217.917.420.92%0.94$266.33 - $382.3415%

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$17181.0M$4344.0M$3695.0MN/A$3218.0M$1195.0M$14660.0M
FY 2024$15698.0M$3835.0M$2654.0MN/A$2817.0M$1085.0M$16265.0M
FY 2023$13376.0M$3785.0M$2564.0MN/A$2833.1MN/A$8782.3M

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $13376.0M in FY 2023 to $17181.0M in FY 2025, and net income rose from $2564.0M to $3695.0M over the same span. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 15%, Altman Z is 2.5, Piotroski F is 7/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. Per the market data, the gross margin is reported as 0%, which the source does not reconcile with the operating and net margins. Debt declined from $16265.0M in FY 2024 to $14660.0M in FY 2025 while cash rose from $1085.0M to $1195.0M.

Open Questions

  • What are the company's products, customers, and revenue model, given that the source profile contains only sector and industry labels?
  • Why is the reported gross margin 0% when operating and net margins are positive at 25.3% and 21.5%?
  • What explains the missing FY 2023 cash figure and the N/A EPS across all reported periods?
  • What drove the decline in debt between FY 2024 and FY 2025, and how does it relate to the Debt/Equity of 0.5?
  • What are the sector-specific macro sensitivities behind the 10/20 macro regime score?

AON Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Aon plc (Ireland) (Class A) (AON) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AON Debate Forum (3) ↓
🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 5d ago
AON Q3 Earnings Call Highlights

AON (NYSE:AON) reported 6% organic revenue growth in the third quarter of 2026, led by 7% growth in both its commercial risk and reinsurance businesses. The company said its results reflected broad-based demand for risk,

Read Full Source ↗
🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 5d ago
Aon: Q3 Earnings Snapshot

DUBLIN (AP) — DUBLIN (AP) — Aon PLC (AON) on Wednesday reported third-quarter earnings of $476 million.On a per-share basis, the Dublin-based company said it had profit of $2.

Read Full Source ↗
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AON Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $321.67?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AON 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AON:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $347.37 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is AON (C+ • RQD 68/100) a Buy at $321.64?

Welcome to the AON (Aon plc (Ireland) (Class A)) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 68/100 (Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout) in Specialty Insurers. Bulls point to capital efficiency (15.0% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

BE BearTrap_Alert Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $257.31 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $321.64

Pump the brakes on AON — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on AON, but look at what you are paying: 18.5x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Aon plc (Ireland) (Class A) expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

TA TapeReader_Pro Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $411.70 (+28.0%)
Spot @ $321.64

AON cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on AON, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Specialty Insurers and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $321.64 (52-wk range $266.33 - $382.34), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

LIVE TAPE SPY $755.72 -0.38% QQQ $690.49 -1.44% DIA $517.13 -0.37% IWM $279.33 +0.96% NVDA $204.64 -4.22% AAPL $344.63 -1.23% MSFT $521.91 -1.55% TSLA $399.81 -0.86% PLTR $184.11 -6.27% SOFI $16.76 -4.83% IBIT $43.36 -0.94% GLD $355.78 -1.34%