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Why AON Stock surged +3.64% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$333.38 +3.64% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $334.93

Aon plc (Ireland) (Class A) (AON) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $68.24B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AON stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Aon plc (Ireland) (Class A) (NYSE: AON) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $333.38 (+3.64% 1D, market cap $68.24B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, AON ranks #121 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AON compare to AJG and MRSH in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Specialty Insurers), AON carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 15.0%. By comparison, AJG (Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 46.0x, ROIC 5.3%, cap $70.76B) and MRSH (Marsh) posts a A- grade (81/100 RQD, P/E 22.5x, ROIC 10.6%, cap $95.40B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AON leads on earnings multiple (18.5x) while WTW leads on capital efficiency (16.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AON?
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Per AON's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000315293), Aon plc (Ireland) (Class A) generated $17.18B in revenue (+9.4% YoY), $3.69B in net income, and $3.22B in free cash flow against $50.78B in total assets and $14.66B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $334.95 (+0.47%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 18.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510069
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C
Cash (13)Whales (14)SEC (15)Macro (11)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.9% Base Target
$413 Bull$350 Base$273 Bear
📬 FREE AON RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AON)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AON SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (69.4) create a -9 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
61
Grade C$275.35+6.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
64
Grade C+$294.35+7.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
66
Grade B-$315.72+5.6% Next Q
Current
69
Grade C+$333.38+2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (61) → C+ (69)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AON Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, AON faces multiple-compression risk if 18.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($300.02) or 200D SMA ($325.44) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($349.88) toward Bear Floor ($272.91).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AON• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AON Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why AON Stock surged +3.64% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Aon plc (Ireland) (Class A) (AON) surged +3.64% to $333.38, trading at 58% of its 52-week range ($266.33 – $382.34). Solid steady margins (15% return on capital), mixed timing at 19x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 58% of its 52-week range ($266.33 – $382.34) with RSI-14 at 69.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4.7% around $333.38 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C+ (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $3.2B annual free cash flow.
Live AON Headlines & Catalysts
CATALYSTYahoo Finance • 4d ago
Aon (AON) Stock May Be 23% Undervalued As USI Deal Nears

Aon plc has just logged a sharp rebound in its share price over the past month, and the move raises a straightforward question for investors who care about valuation. At around US$321.64 per share, the issue is whether t

CATALYSTYahoo Finance • 5d ago
Should Earnings Beat Require Action From Aon (AON) Investors?

Aon reported third quarter 2026 revenue of US$4.1b and net income of US$476 million, with both basic and diluted EPS from continuing operations modestly higher than a year earlier. The nine month figures, including US$13

CATALYSTYahoo Finance • 5d ago
AON Q3 Earnings Call Highlights

AON (NYSE:AON) reported 6% organic revenue growth in the third quarter of 2026, led by 7% growth in both its commercial risk and reinsurance businesses. The company said its results reflected broad-based demand for risk,

CATALYSTYahoo Finance • 5d ago
Aon: Q3 Earnings Snapshot

DUBLIN (AP) — DUBLIN (AP) — Aon PLC (AON) on Wednesday reported third-quarter earnings of $476 million.On a per-share basis, the Dublin-based company said it had profit of $2.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (AON Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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AON // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +5.86%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $321.6H $333.4L $321.6C $333.4VOL 1.82M
RES: $333.9SUP: $252.1SMA50: $300.0SMA200: $325.4
$390.5$356.8$323.2$289.5$255.9RES $333.9SUP $252.1$333.42026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AON Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
11.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +9.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AON today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AON. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AON today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AON)

Financials Rank #121 of 1097 ⚔️ AJG vs AON Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (AON vs. AJG, MRSH, WTW, BRO)

Industry: Specialty Insurers (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Aon plc (Ireland) (Class A) (AON) ranks #121 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #54 by equity capitalization ($68.24B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AON leads on earnings valuation at 18.5x trailing P/E, while WTW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.6% ROIC and — gross margin. MRSH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 81/100 (A-) compared with AON at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AON ACTIVE
Aon plc (Ireland) (Class A)
C+ 69/100 18.5x — 15.0% +3.64% $68.24B Benchmark Subject
AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
B- 70/100 46.0x — 5.3% +1.02% $70.76B /ajg-vs-aon →
MRSH
Marsh
A- 81/100 22.5x — 10.6% +2.37% $95.40B /mrsh-vs-aon →
WTW
Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company
B 74/100 18.6x — 16.6% +0.34% $29.92B /wtw-vs-aon →
BRO
Brown & Brown Inc.
B+ 76/100 21.3x — 4.7% +3.04% $23.14B /bro-vs-aon →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000315293 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Aon plc (Ireland) (Class A) (AON) reported GAAP revenue of $17.18B (+9.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $15.70B , and +28.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $3.69B, operating cash flow of $3.48B, and free cash flow of $3.22B (+14.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, AON closed FY2025 with $50.78B in total assets against $14.66B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $17.18B $3.69B $3.48B $3.22B $50.78B $14.66B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $15.70B $2.65B $3.04B $2.82B $48.97B $16.27B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $13.38B $2.56B $3.44B $2.83B $37.53B $8.78B

3. AON Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AON stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Aon plc (Ireland) (Class A) (NYSE: AON) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $333.38 (+3.64% 1D, market cap $68.24B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, AON ranks #121 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AON compare to AJG and MRSH in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Specialty Insurers), AON carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 15.0%. By comparison, AJG (Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 46.0x, ROIC 5.3%, cap $70.76B) and MRSH (Marsh) posts a A- grade (81/100 RQD, P/E 22.5x, ROIC 10.6%, cap $95.40B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AON leads on earnings multiple (18.5x) while WTW leads on capital efficiency (16.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AON?

Per AON's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000315293), Aon plc (Ireland) (Class A) generated $17.18B in revenue (+9.4% YoY), $3.69B in net income, and $3.22B in free cash flow against $50.78B in total assets and $14.66B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AON trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AON last traded at $333.38 (+3.64% on volume of 1,688,025 shares), positioning the stock +11.12% above its 50-day simple moving average ($300.02) and +2.44% above its 200-day simple moving average ($325.44). Across its 52-week range of $266.33 to $382.34, AON sits at the 57.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 69.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.7% ($317.71 to $349.05).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 69/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AON — Aon plc (Ireland) (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Aon plc (Ireland) (Class A) (AON) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 69/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $333.38 (+3.64% 1D, market capitalization $68.24B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 15.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 25.3%, and free cash flow yield of 4.72%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (14/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 0.94x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Aon plc Class A Ordinary Shares (Ireland) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector and Specialty Insurers industry. Per the market data, the company reports an operating margin of 25.3% and a net margin of 21.5%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Aon plc (Ireland) (Class A) (AON) reported $17.18B in annual revenue (up from $15.70B in FY2024, +9.4% YoY) and $3.69B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($13.38B revenue, $2.56B net income) through FY2025, AON scaled operating cash flow to $3.48B and free cash flow to $3.22B, backed by $50.78B in total assets against $14.66B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 69/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 14/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $266.33 – $382.34 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 18.5x trailing P/E and 17.9x EV/EBITDA against 25.3% operating margins and a 0.94x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Specialty Insurers (Financials), AON carries a macro regime beta of 0.94 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can AON sustain or expand its 25.3% operating margin and 15.0% ROIC against Specialty Insurers peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $17.18B and free cash flow of $3.22B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $14.66B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is AON's 17.2x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.94x)?

AON Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Aon plc (Ireland) (Class A) (AON) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AON Debate Forum (3) ↓
🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 5d ago
AON Q3 Earnings Call Highlights

AON (NYSE:AON) reported 6% organic revenue growth in the third quarter of 2026, led by 7% growth in both its commercial risk and reinsurance businesses. The company said its results reflected broad-based demand for risk,

Read Full Source ↗
🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 5d ago
Aon: Q3 Earnings Snapshot

DUBLIN (AP) — DUBLIN (AP) — Aon PLC (AON) on Wednesday reported third-quarter earnings of $476 million.On a per-share basis, the Dublin-based company said it had profit of $2.

Read Full Source ↗
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AON Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $333.38?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AON 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AON:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $424.60 (+32.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction (16/20) and a sound balance sheet (Altman Z 2.5, Piotroski F 7/9) support the stock's positioning.

Long AON at $321.67 targeting $424.60. Insider conviction (16/20) and a sound balance sheet (Altman Z 2.5, Piotroski F 7/9) support the stock's positioning.. Institutional whale score is 14/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $266.33 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@QuantViper Agree on the RQD 69/100 quality, though with 0.94 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $321.67 and keeping dry powder in case we test $299.15.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $257.34 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $321.67

Macro regime fit scores only 10/20 on a 0.94 beta and sector sensitivity, with an 18.5x trailing P/E offering limited valuation cushion

Fading this rally in AON at $321.67. Macro regime fit scores only 10/20 on a 0.94 beta and sector sensitivity, with an 18.5x trailing P/E offering limited valuation cushion.. With a beta of 0.94 and the stock sitting at $321.67 (52-wk range $266.33–$382.34), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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