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Why APPF Stock surged +5.44% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$224.86 +5.44% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $227.60

AppFolio Inc. (APPF) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 76/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 21% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $7.97B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on APPF Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is APPF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, AppFolio Inc. (NASDAQ: APPF) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 76/100 at a spot price of $224.86 (+5.44% 1D, market cap $7.97B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, APPF ranks #34 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does APPF compare to TTAN and DBX in the Technology sector?
▼

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), APPF carries a Roarable B+ (76/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 52.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 20.6%. By comparison, TTAN (ServiceTitan Inc.) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -11.2%, cap $8.00B) and DBX (Dropbox Inc.) posts a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E 16.1x, ROIC 83.1%, cap $8.04B). Among the 5-stock peer group, DBX leads on earnings multiple (16.1x) while DBX leads on capital efficiency (83.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for APPF?
▼

Per APPF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001433195), AppFolio Inc. generated $950.8M in revenue (+19.7% YoY), $140.9M in net income, and $238.9M in free cash flow against $689.0M in total assets and $65.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 52x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $227.60 (+1.22%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 25.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 76/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 11% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 70.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+
025507510076
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw B · Rk A-
Cash (18)Whales (12)SEC (18)Macro (15)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+8.1% Base Target
$287 Bull$243 Base$184 Bear
📬 FREE APPF RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for APPF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (76/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY APPF SCORES 76/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 25.1% FCF Margin ($238.9M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 26.00 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-8 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
68
Grade B-$218.61-0.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
71
Grade B$217.33-4.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
73
Grade B$207.05+8.6% Next Q
Current
76
Grade B+$224.86+7.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (68) → B+ (76)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the APPF Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 76/100 (B+) score, APPF faces multiple-compression risk if 52.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 52x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($211.28) or 200D SMA ($183.36) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($243.07) toward Bear Floor ($184.39).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $APPF• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “APPF Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 76%NO 24%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why APPF Stock surged +5.44% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

AppFolio Inc. (APPF) surged +5.44% to $224.86, trading at 68% of its 52-week range ($142.56 – $263.4). High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 21% return on capital) with steady institutional support.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 68% of its 52-week range ($142.56 – $263.4) with RSI-14 at 60.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±8.9% around $224.86 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable B+ (Buy) backed by 52% gross margin and $238.9M annual free cash flow.
Live APPF Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (APPF Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
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APPF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +30.16%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-04O $213.3H $224.9L $213.3C $224.9VOL 426.8K
RES: $224.8SUP: $202.2SMA50: $211.3SMA200: $183.4
$243.2$215.9$188.6$161.4$134.1RES $224.8SUP $202.2$224.92026-05-052026-06-222026-08-062026-09-222026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

APPF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 APPF Butterfly Map → + Track APPF →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
37.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +19.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on APPF today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for APPF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for APPF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (APPF)

Technology Rank #34 of 715 ⚔️ TTAN vs APPF Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (APPF vs. TTAN, DBX, S, DSGX)

Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, AppFolio Inc. (APPF) ranks #34 by composite RQD confidence (76/100, grade B+) and #169 by equity capitalization ($7.97B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DBX leads on earnings valuation at 16.1x trailing P/E, while DBX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 83.1% ROIC and 80.1% gross margin. DSGX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 79/100 (B+) compared with APPF at 76/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
APPF ACTIVE
AppFolio Inc.
B+ 76/100 52.1x — 20.6% +5.44% $7.97B Benchmark Subject
TTAN
ServiceTitan Inc.
C+ 68/100 — 70.1% -11.2% -1.60% $8.00B /ttan-vs-appf →
DBX
Dropbox Inc.
B+ 76/100 16.1x 80.1% 83.1% -1.68% $8.04B /dbx-vs-appf →
S
SentinelOne Inc.
C 65/100 — 74.1% -15.0% -7.91% $8.06B /s-vs-appf →
DSGX
Descartes Systems Group Inc.
B+ 79/100 48.1x 77.1% 12.0% +0.86% $7.82B /dsgx-vs-appf →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001433195 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), AppFolio Inc. (APPF) reported GAAP revenue of $950.8M (+19.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $794.2M , and +53.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $140.9M, operating cash flow of $242.1M, and free cash flow of $238.9M (+28.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, APPF closed FY2025 with $689.0M in total assets against $65.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 26.00, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $950.8M $140.9M $242.1M $238.9M $689.0M $65.9M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $794.2M $204.1M $188.2M $186.1M $626.7M $48.3M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $620.4M $2.7M $60.3M $32.4M $4.04B $944.8M

3. APPF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is APPF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, AppFolio Inc. (NASDAQ: APPF) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 76/100 at a spot price of $224.86 (+5.44% 1D, market cap $7.97B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, APPF ranks #34 in composite RQD confidence.

How does APPF compare to TTAN and DBX in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), APPF carries a Roarable B+ (76/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 52.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 20.6%. By comparison, TTAN (ServiceTitan Inc.) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -11.2%, cap $8.00B) and DBX (Dropbox Inc.) posts a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E 16.1x, ROIC 83.1%, cap $8.04B). Among the 5-stock peer group, DBX leads on earnings multiple (16.1x) while DBX leads on capital efficiency (83.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for APPF?

Per APPF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001433195), AppFolio Inc. generated $950.8M in revenue (+19.7% YoY), $140.9M in net income, and $238.9M in free cash flow against $689.0M in total assets and $65.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 52x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is APPF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

APPF last traded at $224.86 (+5.44% on volume of 426,821 shares), positioning the stock +6.43% above its 50-day simple moving average ($211.28) and +22.63% above its 200-day simple moving average ($183.36). Across its 52-week range of $142.56 to $263.40, APPF sits at the 68.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 60.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.9% ($204.85 to $244.87).

Direct Sub-Reports: APPF RQD Cockpit APPF 12M Forecast APPF Earnings & Move APPF Dividends & DRIP APPF Insiders & 13F APPF Whale Options APPF Profit Sankey APPF News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 76/100 (B+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

APPF — AppFolio Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

AppFolio Inc. (APPF) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 76/100, corresponding to a B+ letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $224.86 (+5.44% 1D, market capitalization $7.97B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (18/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 20.6%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 16.1%, and free cash flow yield of 3.25%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (12/20) + Insider Conviction (13/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (15/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (18/20): Incorporates a 1.23x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 26.00, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.11x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

AppFolio Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Technology sector, Computer Software: Prepackaged Software industry. The company reported FY 2025 revenue of $950.8M, indicating an operating scale in that range.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), AppFolio Inc. (APPF) reported $950.8M in annual revenue (up from $794.2M in FY2024, +19.7% YoY) and $140.9M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($620.4M revenue, $2.7M net income) through FY2025, APPF scaled operating cash flow to $242.1M and free cash flow to $238.9M, backed by $689.0M in total assets against $65.9M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (B+ • RQD 76/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 18/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $142.56 – $263.40 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Priced at 52x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Investors must weigh 52.1x trailing P/E and 46.9x EV/EBITDA against 16.1% operating margins and a 1.23x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

There are no upstream or downstream dependencies, no sector correlations, and no proprietary signals recorded. Within the source data, the only ripple-relevant item is the UBS downgrade citing slower unit growth, which, if sustained, would be the second-order variable to watch, since high multiples (forward P/E 43.8) leave limited room for growth deceleration. Investors should monitor whether unit-growth commentary translates into revenue deceleration in future filings.

  • Key Question #1: Can APPF sustain or expand its 16.1% operating margin and 20.6% ROIC against Computer Software: Prepackaged Software peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $950.8M and free cash flow of $238.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $65.9M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is APPF's 43.8x forward P/E multiple to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.23x)?

APPF Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for AppFolio Inc. (APPF) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to APPF Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

APPF Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $224.86?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON APPF 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on APPF:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $275.09 (+29.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

High ROIC of 20.6% and a fortress balance sheet (Altman Z 26, Debt/Equity 0.11) support a Roarable Buy rating.

The street is overcomplicating AppFolio Inc. (APPF). High ROIC of 20.6% and a fortress balance sheet (Altman Z 26, Debt/Equity 0.11) support a Roarable Buy rating.. With an RQD score of 76/100 (B+) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 18/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $230.31.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Fair point on 52.1x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $174.86 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $213.25

Valuation is stretched at 52.1x trailing P/E and 46.9x EV/EBITDA, and UBS downgraded the stock to Neutral on slower unit growth.

Valuation is stretched at 52.1x trailing P/E and 46.9x EV/EBITDA, and UBS downgraded the stock to Neutral on slower unit growth.. Look at the math on APPF: paying 52.1x trailing P/E for 20.6% ROIC and 16.1% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Computer Software: Prepackaged Software demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $187.66 before getting long.

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