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ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$12.13 -2.26% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.06

ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 49/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.84B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ARR Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ARR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (NYSE: ARR) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $12.13 (-2.26% 1D, market cap $1.84B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ARR ranks #670 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ARR compare to DHC and BXMT in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ARR carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 14.3%. By comparison, DHC (Diversified Healthcare Trust of) holds a E grade (25/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -17.2%, cap $1.87B) and BXMT (Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 16.7x, ROIC 3.1%, cap $1.88B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARR leads on earnings multiple (5.9x) while ARR leads on capital efficiency (14.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARR?
▼

Per ARR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001428205), ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. generated $8.82B in revenue (+55.0% YoY), $322.7M in net income, and $124.2M in free cash flow against $21.01B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.06 (-0.60%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 1.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (49/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510049
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D · Rk D
Cash (8)Whales (4)SEC (13)Macro (7)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4% Base Target
$20 Bull$12 Base$9 Bear
📬 FREE ARR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (49/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ARR SCORES 49/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (35% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
57
Grade C$13.62-5.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
54
Grade C-$12.81-1.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
52
Grade C-$12.67-4.3% Next Q
Current
49
Grade D$12.13-5.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (57) → D (49)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ARR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ARR currently carries a cautious 49/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($14.20) and Max Pain ($12.74) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $20.28.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ARR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 49%NO 51%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
34.330 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
4 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE2% OF RANGE
L: $12$12.13H: $19
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 8 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 20 / 40
MULTI-MODEL QUANT PANEL DELIBERATION

2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning on ARR

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (40)

14.3% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 6.54% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (47)

21/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 7/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ARR
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ARR)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ARR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ARR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -29.92%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-04O $12.45H $12.45L $12.13C $12.13VOL 4.54M
RES: $17.33SUP: $11.67SMA50: $14.20SMA200: $16.41
$18.14$16.51$14.88$13.25$11.62RES $17.33SUP $11.67$12.132026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ARR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ARR Butterfly Map → + Track ARR →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-11.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +55.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARR)

Financials Rank #670 of 1097 ⚔️ DHC vs ARR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ARR vs. DHC, BXMT, RLJ, DEI)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) ranks #670 by composite RQD confidence (49/100, grade D) and #439 by equity capitalization ($1.84B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARR leads on earnings valuation at 5.9x trailing P/E, while ARR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.3% ROIC and — gross margin. RLJ currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 60/100 (C-) compared with ARR at 49/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ARR ACTIVE
ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc.
D 49/100 5.9x — 14.3% -2.26% $1.84B Benchmark Subject
DHC
Diversified Healthcare Trust of
E 25/100 — — -17.2% -2.45% $1.87B /dhc-vs-arr →
BXMT
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc.
D 50/100 16.7x — 3.1% -1.95% $1.88B /bxmt-vs-arr →
RLJ
RLJ Lodging Trust of $0.01 par value
C- 60/100 67.9x — 1.3% -1.33% $1.94B /rlj-vs-arr →
DEI
Douglas Emmett Inc.
D 45/100 105.1x — 0.9% -2.76% $1.70B /dei-vs-arr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001428205 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) reported GAAP revenue of $8.82B (+55.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $5.69B , and +1648.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $322.7M, operating cash flow of $124.2M, and free cash flow of $124.2M (-52.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARR closed FY2025 with $21.01B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $8.82B $322.7M $124.2M $124.2M $21.01B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $5.69B -$14.4M $261.5M $261.5M $13.55B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $504.7M -$67.9M $132.8M $132.8M — —

3. ARR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ARR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (NYSE: ARR) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $12.13 (-2.26% 1D, market cap $1.84B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ARR ranks #670 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ARR compare to DHC and BXMT in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ARR carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 14.3%. By comparison, DHC (Diversified Healthcare Trust of) holds a E grade (25/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -17.2%, cap $1.87B) and BXMT (Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 16.7x, ROIC 3.1%, cap $1.88B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARR leads on earnings multiple (5.9x) while ARR leads on capital efficiency (14.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARR?

Per ARR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001428205), ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. generated $8.82B in revenue (+55.0% YoY), $322.7M in net income, and $124.2M in free cash flow against $21.01B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ARR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ARR last traded at $12.13 (-2.26% on volume of 5,121,513 shares), positioning the stock -14.58% below its 50-day simple moving average ($14.20) and -26.08% below its 200-day simple moving average ($16.41). Across its 52-week range of $12.28 to $19.31, ARR sits at the 0.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 34.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.5% ($11.34 to $12.92).

Direct Sub-Reports: ARR RQD Cockpit ARR 12M Forecast ARR Earnings & Move ARR Dividends & DRIP ARR Insiders & 13F ARR Whale Options ARR Profit Sankey ARR News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 49/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ARR — ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 49/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $12.13 (-2.26% 1D, market capitalization $1.84B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 14.3%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 6.54%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Financials sector and the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry,..9B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) reported $8.82B in annual revenue (up from $5.69B in FY2024, +55.0% YoY) and $322.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($504.7M revenue, -$67.9M net income) through FY2025, ARR scaled operating cash flow to $124.2M and free cash flow to $124.2M, backed by $21.01B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 49/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 6.54% and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $12.28 – $19.31 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 5.9x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Real Estate Investment Trusts (Financials), ARR carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can ARR sustain or expand its — operating margin and 14.3% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $8.82B and free cash flow of $124.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ARR's 5.5x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ARR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ARR Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ARR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $12.13?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ARR 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ARR:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $14.44 (+16.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider-conviction pillar scores 17 of 20 and the stock trades at 5.9x TTM P/E with 14.3% ROIC.

Picked up a starter position in ARR in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $12.45. Insider-conviction pillar scores 17 of 20 and the stock trades at 5.9x TTM P/E with 14.3% ROIC.. Trading inside a $12.28–$19.31 52-week range with 6.54% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Real Estate Investment Trusts multiples expand this quarter.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

@BearTrap_Alert Shorting a 4/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $12.45 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $10.46 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $12.45

Institutional flow scores only 4 of 20, the RQD verdict is a Sell/Distribution Warning, and dividend yield is 0%.

Careful chasing ARR at $12.45. Institutional flow scores only 4 of 20, the RQD verdict is a Sell/Distribution Warning, and dividend yield is 0%.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 0.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $10.46 on multiple compression.

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