Yahoo Finance report covering ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Why ARR Stock dropped -2.26% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 49/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is ARR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (NYSE: ARR) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $12.13 (-2.26% 1D, market cap $1.84B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ARR ranks #670 in composite RQD confidence.
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does ARR compare to DHC and BXMT in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ARR carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 14.3%. By comparison, DHC (Diversified Healthcare Trust of) holds a E grade (25/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -17.2%, cap $1.87B) and BXMT (Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 16.7x, ROIC 3.1%, cap $1.88B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARR leads on earnings multiple (5.9x) while ARR leads on capital efficiency (14.3% ROIC).
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARR?
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Per ARR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001428205), ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. generated $8.82B in revenue (+55.0% YoY), $322.7M in net income, and $124.2M in free cash flow against $21.01B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where to Enter $ARR, Where to Set Your Hard Stop-Loss & Today's Top 3 High-Conviction Trades
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ARR Turnaround Squeeze
While ARR currently carries a cautious 49/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($14.20) and Max Pain ($12.74) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $20.28.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
Why ARR Stock dropped -2.26% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) dropped -2.26% to $12.13, trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($12.28 – $19.31). Stretched risk/reward at 6x P/E (14% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($12.28 – $19.31) with RSI-14 at 34.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±6.5% around $12.13 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $124.2M annual free cash flow.
Seeking Alpha report covering ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
www.marketscreener.com report covering ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
GlobeNewswire report covering ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
See here for an analysis of 16 safe small-cap high-yield dividend dogs with strong cash flow and top picks projected to gain up to 62% by 2027.
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ARR)
- ✓Walkthrough of ARR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
ARR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +55.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARR today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARR)
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ARR vs. DHC, BXMT, RLJ, DEI)
Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) ranks #670 by composite RQD confidence (49/100, grade D) and #439 by equity capitalization ($1.84B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARR leads on earnings valuation at 5.9x trailing P/E, while ARR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.3% ROIC and — gross margin. RLJ currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 60/100 (C-) compared with ARR at 49/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARR
ACTIVE
ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. | D | 49/100 | 5.9x | — | 14.3% | -2.26% | $1.84B | Benchmark Subject |
| DHC Diversified Healthcare Trust of | E | 25/100 | — | — | -17.2% | -2.45% | $1.87B | /dhc-vs-arr → |
| BXMT Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. | D | 50/100 | 16.7x | — | 3.1% | -1.95% | $1.88B | /bxmt-vs-arr → |
| RLJ RLJ Lodging Trust of $0.01 par value | C- | 60/100 | 67.9x | — | 1.3% | -1.33% | $1.94B | /rlj-vs-arr → |
| DEI Douglas Emmett Inc. | D | 45/100 | 105.1x | — | 0.9% | -2.76% | $1.70B | /dei-vs-arr → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001428205 ↗In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) reported GAAP revenue of $8.82B (+55.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $5.69B , and +1648.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $322.7M, operating cash flow of $124.2M, and free cash flow of $124.2M (-52.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARR closed FY2025 with $21.01B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $8.82B | $322.7M | $124.2M | $124.2M | $21.01B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $5.69B | -$14.4M | $261.5M | $261.5M | $13.55B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $504.7M | -$67.9M | $132.8M | $132.8M | — | — |
3. ARR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs ARR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-03, ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (NYSE: ARR) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $12.13 (-2.26% 1D, market cap $1.84B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ARR ranks #670 in composite RQD confidence.
How does ARR compare to DHC and BXMT in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ARR carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 14.3%. By comparison, DHC (Diversified Healthcare Trust of) holds a E grade (25/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -17.2%, cap $1.87B) and BXMT (Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 16.7x, ROIC 3.1%, cap $1.88B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARR leads on earnings multiple (5.9x) while ARR leads on capital efficiency (14.3% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARR?
Per ARR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001428205), ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. generated $8.82B in revenue (+55.0% YoY), $322.7M in net income, and $124.2M in free cash flow against $21.01B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is ARR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
ARR last traded at $12.13 (-2.26% on volume of 5,121,513 shares), positioning the stock -14.58% below its 50-day simple moving average ($14.20) and -26.08% below its 200-day simple moving average ($16.41). Across its 52-week range of $12.28 to $19.31, ARR sits at the 0.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 34.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.5% ($11.34 to $12.92).
ARR — ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 49/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $12.13 (-2.26% 1D, market capitalization $1.84B).
- Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 14.3%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 6.54%.
- Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
- Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.
2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory
ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Financials sector and the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry,..9B.
In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) reported $8.82B in annual revenue (up from $5.69B in FY2024, +55.0% YoY) and $322.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($504.7M revenue, -$67.9M net income) through FY2025, ARR scaled operating cash flow to $124.2M and free cash flow to $124.2M, backed by $21.01B in total assets against $0 in total debt.
3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff
- 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 49/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 6.54% and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $12.28 – $19.31 52-week range.
- 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 5.9x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.
4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch
Operating in Real Estate Investment Trusts (Financials), ARR carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.
- Key Question #1: Can ARR sustain or expand its — operating margin and 14.3% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
- Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $8.82B and free cash flow of $124.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
- Key Question #3: How sensitive is ARR's 5.5x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?
ARR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
Yahoo Finance report covering ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
www.marketscreener.com report covering ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
GlobeNewswire report covering ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
ARR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $12.13?
Insider-conviction pillar scores 17 of 20 and the stock trades at 5.9x TTM P/E with 14.3% ROIC.
Picked up a starter position in ARR in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $12.45. Insider-conviction pillar scores 17 of 20 and the stock trades at 5.9x TTM P/E with 14.3% ROIC.. Trading inside a $12.28–$19.31 52-week range with 6.54% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Real Estate Investment Trusts multiples expand this quarter.
@BearTrap_Alert Shorting a 4/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $12.45 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.
Institutional flow scores only 4 of 20, the RQD verdict is a Sell/Distribution Warning, and dividend yield is 0%.
Careful chasing ARR at $12.45. Institutional flow scores only 4 of 20, the RQD verdict is a Sell/Distribution Warning, and dividend yield is 0%.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 0.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $10.46 on multiple compression.