How profitable is ASP Isotopes Inc. (ASPI)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), ASPI converted $23.8M of revenue into a 14.3% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Stock Ratings / Materials / ASPI / financials

GEVO (26) OEC (39) ALTO (46) NL (46) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

ASP Isotopes Inc. (ASPI) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

Q: Where is ASPI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ASPI last traded at $1.94 (-3.96% on volume of 3,088,599 shares), positioning the stock -33.10% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.90) and -59.58% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.80). Across its 52-week range of $1.89 to $10.14, ASPI sits at the 0.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.70 to $2.18).

$1.94 -3.96% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.92

ASP Isotopes Inc. (ASPI) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 21/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $309.7M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ASPI Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ASPI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, ASP Isotopes Inc. (NASDAQ: ASPI) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 21/100 at a spot price of $1.94 (-3.96% 1D, market cap $309.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, ASPI ranks #261 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ASPI compare to GEVO and OEC in the Materials sector?

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Within the Materials sector (Major Chemicals), ASPI carries a Roarable E (21/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 14.3%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, GEVO (Gevo Inc.) holds a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.9%, cap $309.0M) and OEC (Orion S.A.) posts a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.2%, cap $316.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ASPI leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while NL leads on capital efficiency (3.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASPI?

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Per ASPI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001921865), ASP Isotopes Inc. generated $23.8M in revenue (+475.5% YoY), -$159.8M in net income, and -$47.4M in free cash flow against $498.0M in total assets and $1.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.92 (-0.90%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (21/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-11.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-16.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ASPI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (21/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ASPI SCORES 21/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+5/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 14.3% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+5/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.72 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$2.28-11% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$2.03+1.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$2.06-5.8% Next Q

Current

Grade E$1.94-11.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (29) → E (21)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ASPI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ASPI currently carries a cautious 21/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.90) and Max Pain ($2.04) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $10.65.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ASPI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ASPI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 21%NO 79%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How ASPI Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $433.0K

FY24

Rev $4.1M

FY25

Rev $23.8M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$23.8M	14.3%	-80%	-$159.8M	-$47.4M	-45%
FY 2024	$4.1M	38.6%	-80%	-$32.4M	-$26.4M	-45%
FY 2023	$433.0K	14.3%	-80%	-$16.3M	-$5.4M	-35%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ASPI)

✓Walkthrough of ASPI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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ASPI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -62.40%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-03O $2.13H $2.13L $1.94C $1.94VOL 3.44M

RES: $2.00SUP: $1.38SMA50: $2.90SMA200: $4.80

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ASPI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ASPI Butterfly Map → + Track ASPI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +475.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ASPI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ASPI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ASPI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ASPI)

Materials Rank #261 of 270 ⚔️ GEVO vs ASPI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (ASPI vs. GEVO, OEC, ALTO, NL)

Industry: Major Chemicals (67 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, ASP Isotopes Inc. (ASPI) ranks #261 by composite RQD confidence (21/100, grade E) and #197 by equity capitalization ($309.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ASPI leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while NL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 3.4% ROIC and 30.4% gross margin. ALTO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 46/100 (D) compared with ASPI at 21/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ASPI ACTIVE ASP Isotopes Inc.	E	21/100	—	14.3%	-35.0%	-3.96%	$309.7M	Benchmark Subject
GEVO Gevo Inc.	E	26/100	—	—	-2.9%	-6.40%	$309.0M	/gevo-vs-aspi →
OEC Orion S.A.	D-	39/100	—	19.9%	2.2%	+0.71%	$316.5M	/oec-vs-aspi →
ALTO Alto Ingredients Inc.	D	46/100	—	3.8%	2.0%	-4.11%	$283.1M	/alto-vs-aspi →
NL NLI Holdings Inc.	D	46/100	—	30.4%	3.4%	-2.53%	$347.7M	/nl-vs-aspi →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001921865 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), ASP Isotopes Inc. (ASPI) reported GAAP revenue of $23.8M (+475.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.1M , and +5407.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$159.8M, operating cash flow of -$37.8M, and free cash flow of -$47.4M (-79.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, ASPI closed FY2025 with $498.0M in total assets against $1.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.72, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$23.8M	-$159.8M	-$37.8M	-$47.4M	$498.0M	$1.5M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$4.1M	-$32.4M	-$16.7M	-$26.4M	$94.3M	$1.4M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$433.0K	-$16.3M	-$5.4M	-$5.4M	—	—

3. ASPI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ASPI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ASPI compare to GEVO and OEC in the Materials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASPI?

Where is ASPI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ASPI last traded at $1.94 (-3.96% on volume of 3,088,599 shares), positioning the stock -33.10% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.90) and -59.58% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.80). Across its 52-week range of $1.89 to $10.14, ASPI sits at the 0.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.70 to $2.18).

Direct Sub-Reports: ASPI RQD Cockpit ASPI 12M Forecast ASPI Earnings & Move ASPI Dividends & DRIP ASPI Insiders & 13F ASPI Whale Options ASPI Profit Sankey ASPI News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 21/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ASPI — ASP Isotopes Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

ASP Isotopes Inc. (ASPI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 21/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $1.94 (-3.96% 1D, market capitalization $309.7M).

Fundamental Cash Engine (5/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of 14.3%, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of -14.53%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (5/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.72, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.01x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

ASP Isotopes Inc. (ASPI) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Materials sector and the Major Chemicals industry, with a market capitalization of $0.3B. FY 2025 revenue was $23.8M, with reported gross margin of 14.3% per the market data.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), ASP Isotopes Inc. (ASPI) reported $23.8M in annual revenue (up from $4.1M in FY2024, +475.5% YoY) and -$159.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($433.0K revenue, -$16.3M net income) through FY2025, ASPI scaled operating cash flow to -$37.8M and free cash flow to -$47.4M, backed by $498.0M in total assets against $1.5M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 21/100): Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -14.53% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 5/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $1.89 – $10.14 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Major Chemicals (Materials), ASPI carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 14.3%.

Key Question #1: Can ASPI sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Major Chemicals peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $23.8M and free cash flow of -$47.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.5M in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is ASPI's equity valuation to Materials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ASPI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for ASP Isotopes Inc. (ASPI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ASPI Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 21h ago

ASP Isotopes (NasdaqCM:ASPI) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions

Simply Wall St report covering ASP Isotopes Inc. (ASPI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

To cover stock-award taxes, ASP Isotopes (ASPI) COO sells 22,500 shares under a trading plan.

Stock Titan report covering ASP Isotopes Inc. (ASPI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

ASP Isotopes says South Africa gas project achieves stable liquid helium production (ASPI:NASDAQ)

Seeking Alpha report covering ASP Isotopes Inc. (ASPI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

ASP Isotopes Inc. Estimates – NASDAQ:ASPI

TradingView report covering ASP Isotopes Inc. (ASPI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

A South African nuclear fuel project has secured a buyer: TerraPower

Stock Titan report covering ASP Isotopes Inc. (ASPI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Kalkine Media • 1d ago

Can ASP Isotopes (NASDAQ:ASPI) Build on Stable Liquid Helium Output?

Kalkine Media report covering ASP Isotopes Inc. (ASPI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

A proposed 21,830-share sale at ASP Isotopes (NASDAQ: ASPI) carries a $48K market value.

Stock Titan report covering ASP Isotopes Inc. (ASPI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

ASP Isotopes (JSE:ISO) - Stock Analysis

Simply Wall St report covering ASP Isotopes Inc. (ASPI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ASPI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $1.94?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ASPI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $2.50 (+23.8%)

📌 Pinned Debate

The company held $279.6M in cash against only $1.5M of debt at FY 2025, giving it substantial liquidity relative to its balance sheet o

Here is why I am bullish on ASPI here at $2.02: The company held $279.6M in cash against only $1.5M of debt at FY 2025, giving it substantial liquidity relative to its balance sheet obligations.. Compare ASPI's -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against the rest of Major Chemicals. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $1.92 are getting bought.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@BreakoutHunter Agree on the RQD 21/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $2.02 and keeping dry powder in case we test $1.88.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.52 (-24.8%)

Spot @ $2.02

The company posted a FY 2025 net loss of -$159.8M with ROIC of -35% and FCF of -$47.4M, and the RQD rating scores it 21 with an Altman

Careful chasing ASPI at $2.02. The company posted a FY 2025 net loss of -$159.8M with ROIC of -35% and FCF of -$47.4M, and the RQD rating scores it 21 with an Altman Z-Score of 0.72.. Gross margin is 14.3%, but operating margin is -60.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $1.52 on multiple compression.