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Why ASPI Stock dropped -3.96% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$1.94 -3.96% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.92

ASP Isotopes Inc. (ASPI) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 21/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $309.7M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ASPI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, ASP Isotopes Inc. (NASDAQ: ASPI) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 21/100 at a spot price of $1.94 (-3.96% 1D, market cap $309.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, ASPI ranks #261 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ASPI compare to GEVO and OEC in the Materials sector?
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Within the Materials sector (Major Chemicals), ASPI carries a Roarable E (21/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 14.3%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, GEVO (Gevo Inc.) holds a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.9%, cap $309.0M) and OEC (Orion S.A.) posts a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.2%, cap $316.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ASPI leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while NL leads on capital efficiency (3.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASPI?
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Per ASPI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001921865), ASP Isotopes Inc. generated $23.8M in revenue (+475.5% YoY), -$159.8M in net income, and -$47.4M in free cash flow against $498.0M in total assets and $1.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.92 (-0.90%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (21/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-11.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510021
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Cash (5)Whales (3)SEC (5)Macro (5)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-16.5% Base Target
$11 Bull$2 Base$1 Bear
📬 FREE ASPI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ASPI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (21/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ASPI SCORES 21/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+5/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 14.3% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+5/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.72 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
29
Grade E$2.28-11% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
26
Grade E$2.03+1.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
24
Grade E$2.06-5.8% Next Q
Current
21
Grade E$1.94-11.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (29) → E (21)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ASPI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ASPI currently carries a cautious 21/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.90) and Max Pain ($2.04) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $10.65.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ASPI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ASPI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why ASPI Stock dropped -3.96% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

ASP Isotopes Inc. (ASPI) dropped -3.96% to $1.94, trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($1.89 – $10.14). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($1.89 – $10.14) with RSI-14 at 36.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $1.94 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable E (Strong Sell) backed by 14.3% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live ASPI Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRESimply Wall St • 1d ago
ASP Isotopes (JSE:ISO) - Stock Analysis

Simply Wall St report covering ASP Isotopes Inc. (ASPI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ASPI)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ASPI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ASPI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -62.40%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $2.13H $2.13L $1.94C $1.94VOL 3.44M
RES: $2.00SUP: $1.38SMA50: $2.90SMA200: $4.80
$9.01$7.08$5.15$3.22$1.29RES $2.00SUP $1.38$1.942026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ASPI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +475.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ASPI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ASPI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ASPI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ASPI)

Materials Rank #261 of 270 ⚔️ GEVO vs ASPI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (ASPI vs. GEVO, OEC, ALTO, NL)

Industry: Major Chemicals (67 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, ASP Isotopes Inc. (ASPI) ranks #261 by composite RQD confidence (21/100, grade E) and #197 by equity capitalization ($309.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ASPI leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while NL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 3.4% ROIC and 30.4% gross margin. ALTO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 46/100 (D) compared with ASPI at 21/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ASPI ACTIVE
ASP Isotopes Inc.
E 21/100 — 14.3% -35.0% -3.96% $309.7M Benchmark Subject
GEVO
Gevo Inc.
E 26/100 — — -2.9% -6.40% $309.0M /gevo-vs-aspi →
OEC
Orion S.A.
D- 39/100 — 19.9% 2.2% +0.71% $316.5M /oec-vs-aspi →
ALTO
Alto Ingredients Inc.
D 46/100 — 3.8% 2.0% -4.11% $283.1M /alto-vs-aspi →
NL
NLI Holdings Inc.
D 46/100 — 30.4% 3.4% -2.53% $347.7M /nl-vs-aspi →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001921865 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), ASP Isotopes Inc. (ASPI) reported GAAP revenue of $23.8M (+475.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.1M , and +5407.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$159.8M, operating cash flow of -$37.8M, and free cash flow of -$47.4M (-79.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, ASPI closed FY2025 with $498.0M in total assets against $1.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.72, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $23.8M -$159.8M -$37.8M -$47.4M $498.0M $1.5M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $4.1M -$32.4M -$16.7M -$26.4M $94.3M $1.4M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $433.0K -$16.3M -$5.4M -$5.4M — —

3. ASPI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ASPI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, ASP Isotopes Inc. (NASDAQ: ASPI) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 21/100 at a spot price of $1.94 (-3.96% 1D, market cap $309.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, ASPI ranks #261 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ASPI compare to GEVO and OEC in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Major Chemicals), ASPI carries a Roarable E (21/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 14.3%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, GEVO (Gevo Inc.) holds a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.9%, cap $309.0M) and OEC (Orion S.A.) posts a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.2%, cap $316.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ASPI leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while NL leads on capital efficiency (3.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASPI?

Per ASPI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001921865), ASP Isotopes Inc. generated $23.8M in revenue (+475.5% YoY), -$159.8M in net income, and -$47.4M in free cash flow against $498.0M in total assets and $1.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ASPI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ASPI last traded at $1.94 (-3.96% on volume of 3,088,599 shares), positioning the stock -33.10% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.90) and -59.58% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.80). Across its 52-week range of $1.89 to $10.14, ASPI sits at the 0.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.70 to $2.18).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 21/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ASPI — ASP Isotopes Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

ASP Isotopes Inc. (ASPI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 21/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $1.94 (-3.96% 1D, market capitalization $309.7M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (5/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of 14.3%, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of -14.53%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (5/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.72, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.01x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

ASP Isotopes Inc. (ASPI) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Materials sector and the Major Chemicals industry, with a market capitalization of $0.3B. FY 2025 revenue was $23.8M, with reported gross margin of 14.3% per the market data.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), ASP Isotopes Inc. (ASPI) reported $23.8M in annual revenue (up from $4.1M in FY2024, +475.5% YoY) and -$159.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($433.0K revenue, -$16.3M net income) through FY2025, ASPI scaled operating cash flow to -$37.8M and free cash flow to -$47.4M, backed by $498.0M in total assets against $1.5M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 21/100): Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -14.53% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 5/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $1.89 – $10.14 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Major Chemicals (Materials), ASPI carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 14.3%.

  • Key Question #1: Can ASPI sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Major Chemicals peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $23.8M and free cash flow of -$47.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.5M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ASPI's equity valuation to Materials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ASPI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for ASP Isotopes Inc. (ASPI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ASPI Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ASPI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $1.94?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ASPI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ASPI:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $2.50 (+23.8%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The company held $279.6M in cash against only $1.5M of debt at FY 2025, giving it substantial liquidity relative to its balance sheet o

Here is why I am bullish on ASPI here at $2.02: The company held $279.6M in cash against only $1.5M of debt at FY 2025, giving it substantial liquidity relative to its balance sheet obligations.. Compare ASPI's -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against the rest of Major Chemicals. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $1.92 are getting bought.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@BreakoutHunter Agree on the RQD 21/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $2.02 and keeping dry powder in case we test $1.88.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.52 (-24.8%)
Spot @ $2.02

The company posted a FY 2025 net loss of -$159.8M with ROIC of -35% and FCF of -$47.4M, and the RQD rating scores it 21 with an Altman

Careful chasing ASPI at $2.02. The company posted a FY 2025 net loss of -$159.8M with ROIC of -35% and FCF of -$47.4M, and the RQD rating scores it 21 with an Altman Z-Score of 0.72.. Gross margin is 14.3%, but operating margin is -60.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $1.52 on multiple compression.

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