Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±6.1% Move

$16.65 -3.25% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.59

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 74/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (89% profit margin, 17% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $2.22B
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AUPH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: AUPH) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 74/100 at a spot price of $16.65 (-3.25% 1D, market cap $2.22B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AUPH ranks #42 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AUPH compare to XNCR and VERA in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AUPH carries a Roarable B (74/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.0x, gross margin of 88.5%, and ROIC of 16.5%. By comparison, XNCR (Xencor Inc.) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -21.3%, cap $2.22B) and VERA (Vera Therapeutics Inc. (Class A)) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.23B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AUPH leads on earnings multiple (8.0x) while HRMY leads on capital efficiency (63.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AUPH?
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Per AUPH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001600620), Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc generated $283.1M in revenue (+20.4% YoY), $287.2M in net income, and $135.7M in free cash flow against $751.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.59 (-0.34%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 47.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 74/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.4% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B
025507510074
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk A-
Cash (13)Whales (11)SEC (18)Macro (15)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+7.2% Base Target
$21 Bull$18 Base$14 Bear
📬 FREE AUPH RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AUPH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (74/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AUPH SCORES 74/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 8.33 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
66
Grade B-$16.36+2.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
69
Grade B-$16.74+3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
71
Grade B$17.25-3.5% Next Q
Current
74
Grade B$16.65+7.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (66) → B (74)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AUPH Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 74/100 (B) score, AUPH faces multiple-compression risk if 8.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 86.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($16.50) or 200D SMA ($15.67) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($17.85) toward Bear Floor ($13.65).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AUPH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AUPH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±6.1% Swing Band

±$1.02 Expected Swing
$15.63 (-6.1%)Spot $16.65$17.67 (+6.1%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

AUPH Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 74/100

Trailing EPS: $2.16 • YoY Revenue Growth: 20.4%

Model Bullish Setup (74/100)Model Risk Weight (26/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$283.1M$287.2M$135.7M88.5%
FY 20242024-12-31$235.1M$5.8M$44.4M88%
FY 20232023-12-31$175.5M-$78.0M-$33.5M88.5%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating AUPH & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on AUPH
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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AUPH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +5.58%▲ ASCENDING TRIANGLE
2026-11-03O $17.21H $17.21L $16.65C $16.65VOL 960.9K
RES: $17.57SUP: $15.95SMA50: $16.50SMA200: $15.67
$19.63$18.06$16.48$14.91$13.33RES $17.57SUP $15.95$16.652026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AUPH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-5.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +20.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AUPH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AUPH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AUPH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AUPH)

Health Care Rank #42 of 1016 ⚔️ XNCR vs AUPH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AUPH vs. XNCR, VERA, PRGO, HRMY)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH) ranks #42 by composite RQD confidence (74/100, grade B) and #240 by equity capitalization ($2.22B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AUPH leads on earnings valuation at 8.0x trailing P/E, while HRMY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 63.0% ROIC and 77.2% gross margin. HRMY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 86/100 (A) compared with AUPH at 74/100 (B).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AUPH ACTIVE
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc
B 74/100 8.0x 88.5% 16.5% -3.25% $2.22B Benchmark Subject
XNCR
Xencor Inc.
D 47/100 — — -21.3% +2.09% $2.22B /xncr-vs-auph →
VERA
Vera Therapeutics Inc. (Class A)
E 31/100 — — -35.0% +1.47% $2.23B /vera-vs-auph →
PRGO
Perrigo Company plc
D 49/100 — 35.1% -13.6% -0.75% $2.19B /prgo-vs-auph →
HRMY
Harmony Biosciences Holdings Inc.
A 86/100 14.2x 77.2% 63.0% +0.44% $2.26B /hrmy-vs-auph →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001600620

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH) reported GAAP revenue of $283.1M (+20.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $235.1M , and +61.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $287.2M, operating cash flow of $135.7M, and free cash flow of $135.7M (+205.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, AUPH closed FY2025 with $751.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 8.33, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $283.1M $287.2M $135.7M $135.7M $751.6M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $235.1M $5.8M $44.4M $44.4M $550.6M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $175.5M -$78.0M -$33.5M -$33.5M — —

3. AUPH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AUPH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: AUPH) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 74/100 at a spot price of $16.65 (-3.25% 1D, market cap $2.22B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AUPH ranks #42 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AUPH compare to XNCR and VERA in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AUPH carries a Roarable B (74/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.0x, gross margin of 88.5%, and ROIC of 16.5%. By comparison, XNCR (Xencor Inc.) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -21.3%, cap $2.22B) and VERA (Vera Therapeutics Inc. (Class A)) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.23B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AUPH leads on earnings multiple (8.0x) while HRMY leads on capital efficiency (63.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AUPH?

Per AUPH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001600620), Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc generated $283.1M in revenue (+20.4% YoY), $287.2M in net income, and $135.7M in free cash flow against $751.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AUPH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AUPH last traded at $16.65 (-3.25% on volume of 960,884 shares), positioning the stock +0.91% above its 50-day simple moving average ($16.50) and +6.25% above its 200-day simple moving average ($15.67). Across its 52-week range of $12.79 to $19.25, AUPH sits at the 59.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.1% ($15.63 to $17.67).

AUPH Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is AUPH's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is AUPH stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±6.1% event move for AUPH, spanning a range between $15.63 and $17.67.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 74/100 (B) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

AUPH — Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:26:10Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, AUPH scores 77 out of 100, earning a B+ grade and the verdict label "Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 13 / 20 (ROIC 16.5%; FCF yield 5.92%). This is the cash-generation view. The ROIC and FCF yield figures indicate the business is currently producing returns, though the pillar score sits in the middle of its range.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 14 / 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning). The score reflects moderate institutional support. The source does not provide the underlying 13F holdings detail, so the magnitude of accumulation cannot be verified here.
  • Insider Conviction: 17 / 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow). This is the strongest of the market-signal pillars, suggesting insider and disclosed-trade activity is net supportive, though the individual trades are not itemized in the source.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 15 / 20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity). A beta of 1.0 means the stock is modeled to move in line with the broad market, so it neither amplifies nor dampens market swings.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 18 / 20 (Altman Z 8.33; Piotroski F 7/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). This is the highest-scoring pillar. An Altman Z of 8.33 and Piotroski F of 7 out of 9 point to strong financial health, and Debt/Equity of 0.5 indicates moderate leverage.

For a prospective investor, the upside drivers are the balance-sheet strength and the supportive insider and institutional signals. The valuation tradeoff is that the stock trades at a trailing P/E of 8 and a forward P/E of 6.7, which can reflect either undervaluation or market skepticism about durability; the source does not resolve which. The 13/20 cash-engine score signals that cash generation, while present, has not yet reached the strength of the balance-sheet pillar. These are analytical observations, not personalized advice.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
17.21$2.29B86.721.12.160%1.0$12.07 - $19.2516.5%

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$283.1M$104.9M$287.2MN/A$135.7M$80.2MN/A
FY 2024$235.1M$-4.7M$5.8MN/A$44.4M$83.4MN/A
FY 2023$175.5M$-91.7M$-78.0MN/A$-33.5MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $175.5M in FY 2023 to $283.1M in FY 2025, and operating income moved from a loss of $-91.7M to $104.9M over the same span. Per the market data, gross margin is 88.5%, operating margin 37.1%, and net margin 68%, with ROIC at 16.5%. The Altman Z-Score of 8.33 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 are cited in the RQD pillar detail. Debt/Equity is 0.5 per that same detail; the debt line in the SEC financials is not reported.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

  • Catalyst (GREEN): A headline reports the company raised its 2026 revenue forecast to $325 million–$330 million.
  • Earnings: A headline reports AUPH topped Q3 earnings estimates; a separate headline reports Q3 earnings were expected to decline, and another notes the stock price slipped after Q3 earnings strength.
  • Market wire items (YELLOW): Multiple aggregator items cover market action and institutional positioning without specific new figures.
  • Proprietary signals: None were provided in the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph.

Risk watch items: the conflicting earnings headlines warrant verification against primary filings, and the source does not confirm which characterization is current.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply chain status is NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Not available in source data for upstream/downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or 2nd-order bottlenecks.

Open Questions

  • What are the company's specific products, and what share of the FY 2025 revenue comes from each?
  • Which Q3 earnings characterization is accurate, given conflicting headlines?
  • What is the reported debt balance, and what drives the 0.5 Debt/Equity figure?
  • What is the underlying 13F institutional holding change and the composition of Form 4 insider trades?
  • What is the EPS for the reported fiscal periods, which is listed as N/A?

AUPH Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AUPH Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AUPH Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $16.65?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AUPH 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AUPH:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $20.31 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is AUPH (B+ • RQD 77/100) a Buy at $17.21?

Welcome to the AUPH (Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 77/100 (Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow) in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. Bulls point to capital efficiency (16.5% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $14.28 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $17.21

Pump the brakes on AUPH — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on AUPH, but look at what you are paying: 8.0x trailing P/E with 88.5% gross margins. Unless Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $19.79 (+15.0%)
Spot @ $17.21

AUPH cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on AUPH, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $17.21 (52-wk range $12.07 - $19.25), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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