Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$16.65 -3.25% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.59

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 74/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (89% profit margin, 17% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B β€’ BUY Cap $2.22B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AUPH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: AUPH) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 74/100 at a spot price of $16.65 (-3.25% 1D, market cap $2.22B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AUPH ranks #42 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AUPH compare to XNCR and VERA in the Health Care sector?
β–Ό

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AUPH carries a Roarable B (74/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.0x, gross margin of 88.5%, and ROIC of 16.5%. By comparison, XNCR (Xencor Inc.) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -21.3%, cap $2.22B) and VERA (Vera Therapeutics Inc. (Class A)) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.23B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AUPH leads on earnings multiple (8.0x) while HRMY leads on capital efficiency (63.0% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AUPH?
β–Ό

Per AUPH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001600620), Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc generated $283.1M in revenue (+20.4% YoY), $287.2M in net income, and $135.7M in free cash flow against $751.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.59 (-0.34%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) β€’ 47.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 74/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 69.4% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY β€’ B
025507510074
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ Β· Rk A-
Cash (13)Whales (11)SEC (18)Macro (15)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+7.2% Base Target
$21 Bull$18 Base$14 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE AUPH RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AUPH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±6.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (74/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY AUPH SCORES 74/100 (B) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 8.33 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 7/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
66
Grade B-$16.36+2.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
69
Grade B-$16.74+3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
71
Grade B$17.25-3.5% Next Q
Current
74
Grade B$16.65+7.3% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: B- (66) β†’ B (74)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AUPH Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 74/100 (B) score, AUPH faces multiple-compression risk if 8.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 86.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($16.50) or 200D SMA ($15.67) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($17.85) toward Bear Floor ($13.65).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AUPHβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œAUPH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
SEC FORM 4 Γ— 13F HEDGE FUNDS Γ— CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

AUPH Smart-Money Thermometer: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales β†’
β–² Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)β–Ό Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (AUPH)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on AUPH. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (AUPH Tape Review)

  • βœ“Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • βœ“Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • βœ“Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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AUPH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +5.58%β–² ASCENDING TRIANGLE
2026-11-03O $17.21H $17.21L $16.65C $16.65VOL 960.9K
RES: $17.57SUP: $15.95SMA50: $16.50SMA200: $15.67
$19.63$18.06$16.48$14.91$13.33RES $17.57SUP $15.95$16.652026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AUPH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-5.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +20.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AUPH today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AUPH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AUPH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AUPH)

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AUPH vs. XNCR, VERA, PRGO, HRMY)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH) ranks #42 by composite RQD confidence (74/100, grade B) and #240 by equity capitalization ($2.22B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AUPH leads on earnings valuation at 8.0x trailing P/E, while HRMY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 63.0% ROIC and 77.2% gross margin. HRMY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 86/100 (A) compared with AUPH at 74/100 (B).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AUPH ACTIVE
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc
B 74/100 8.0x 88.5% 16.5% -3.25% $2.22B Benchmark Subject
XNCR
Xencor Inc.
D 47/100 β€” β€” -21.3% +2.09% $2.22B /xncr-vs-auph β†’
VERA
Vera Therapeutics Inc. (Class A)
E 31/100 β€” β€” -35.0% +1.47% $2.23B /vera-vs-auph β†’
PRGO
Perrigo Company plc
D 49/100 β€” 35.1% -13.6% -0.75% $2.19B /prgo-vs-auph β†’
HRMY
Harmony Biosciences Holdings Inc.
A 86/100 14.2x 77.2% 63.0% +0.44% $2.26B /hrmy-vs-auph β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001600620

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH) reported GAAP revenue of $283.1M (+20.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $235.1M , and +61.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $287.2M, operating cash flow of $135.7M, and free cash flow of $135.7M (+205.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, AUPH closed FY2025 with $751.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 8.33, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $283.1M $287.2M $135.7M $135.7M $751.6M β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $235.1M $5.8M $44.4M $44.4M $550.6M β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $175.5M -$78.0M -$33.5M -$33.5M β€” β€”

3. AUPH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AUPH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: AUPH) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 74/100 at a spot price of $16.65 (-3.25% 1D, market cap $2.22B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AUPH ranks #42 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AUPH compare to XNCR and VERA in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AUPH carries a Roarable B (74/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.0x, gross margin of 88.5%, and ROIC of 16.5%. By comparison, XNCR (Xencor Inc.) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -21.3%, cap $2.22B) and VERA (Vera Therapeutics Inc. (Class A)) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.23B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AUPH leads on earnings multiple (8.0x) while HRMY leads on capital efficiency (63.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AUPH?

Per AUPH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001600620), Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc generated $283.1M in revenue (+20.4% YoY), $287.2M in net income, and $135.7M in free cash flow against $751.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AUPH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AUPH last traded at $16.65 (-3.25% on volume of 960,884 shares), positioning the stock +0.91% above its 50-day simple moving average ($16.50) and +6.25% above its 200-day simple moving average ($15.67). Across its 52-week range of $12.79 to $19.25, AUPH sits at the 59.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±6.1% ($15.63 to $17.67).

AUPH Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

Are AUPH insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies AUPH leadership and institutional positioning as: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 74/100 (B) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

AUPH β€” Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:26:10Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, AUPH scores 77 out of 100, earning a B+ grade and the verdict label "Roarable Buy β€” Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 13 / 20 (ROIC 16.5%; FCF yield 5.92%). This is the cash-generation view. The ROIC and FCF yield figures indicate the business is currently producing returns, though the pillar score sits in the middle of its range.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 14 / 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning). The score reflects moderate institutional support. The source does not provide the underlying 13F holdings detail, so the magnitude of accumulation cannot be verified here.
  • Insider Conviction: 17 / 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow). This is the strongest of the market-signal pillars, suggesting insider and disclosed-trade activity is net supportive, though the individual trades are not itemized in the source.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 15 / 20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity). A beta of 1.0 means the stock is modeled to move in line with the broad market, so it neither amplifies nor dampens market swings.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 18 / 20 (Altman Z 8.33; Piotroski F 7/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). This is the highest-scoring pillar. An Altman Z of 8.33 and Piotroski F of 7 out of 9 point to strong financial health, and Debt/Equity of 0.5 indicates moderate leverage.

For a prospective investor, the upside drivers are the balance-sheet strength and the supportive insider and institutional signals. The valuation tradeoff is that the stock trades at a trailing P/E of 8 and a forward P/E of 6.7, which can reflect either undervaluation or market skepticism about durability; the source does not resolve which. The 13/20 cash-engine score signals that cash generation, while present, has not yet reached the strength of the balance-sheet pillar. These are analytical observations, not personalized advice.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
17.21$2.29B86.721.12.160%1.0$12.07 - $19.2516.5%

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$283.1M$104.9M$287.2MN/A$135.7M$80.2MN/A
FY 2024$235.1M$-4.7M$5.8MN/A$44.4M$83.4MN/A
FY 2023$175.5M$-91.7M$-78.0MN/A$-33.5MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $175.5M in FY 2023 to $283.1M in FY 2025, and operating income moved from a loss of $-91.7M to $104.9M over the same span. Per the market data, gross margin is 88.5%, operating margin 37.1%, and net margin 68%, with ROIC at 16.5%. The Altman Z-Score of 8.33 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 are cited in the RQD pillar detail. Debt/Equity is 0.5 per that same detail; the debt line in the SEC financials is not reported.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

  • Catalyst (GREEN): A headline reports the company raised its 2026 revenue forecast to $325 million–$330 million.
  • Earnings: A headline reports AUPH topped Q3 earnings estimates; a separate headline reports Q3 earnings were expected to decline, and another notes the stock price slipped after Q3 earnings strength.
  • Market wire items (YELLOW): Multiple aggregator items cover market action and institutional positioning without specific new figures.
  • Proprietary signals: None were provided in the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph.

Risk watch items: the conflicting earnings headlines warrant verification against primary filings, and the source does not confirm which characterization is current.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply chain status is NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Not available in source data for upstream/downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or 2nd-order bottlenecks.

Open Questions

  • What are the company's specific products, and what share of the FY 2025 revenue comes from each?
  • Which Q3 earnings characterization is accurate, given conflicting headlines?
  • What is the reported debt balance, and what drives the 0.5 Debt/Equity figure?
  • What is the underlying 13F institutional holding change and the composition of Form 4 insider trades?
  • What is the EPS for the reported fiscal periods, which is listed as N/A?

AUPH Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to AUPH Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AUPH Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $16.65?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AUPH 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AUPH:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $20.31 (+18.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is AUPH (B+ β€’ RQD 77/100) a Buy at $17.21?

Welcome to the AUPH (Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 77/100 (Roarable Buy β€” Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow) in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. Bulls point to capital efficiency (16.5% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $14.28 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $17.21

Pump the brakes on AUPH β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on AUPH, but look at what you are paying: 8.0x trailing P/E with 88.5% gross margins. Unless Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $19.79 (+15.0%)
Spot @ $17.21

AUPH cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on AUPH, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $17.21 (52-wk range $12.07 - $19.25), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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