ROARABLE
FREE $100K
Today Screener Big Ideas Track Record 💰 $100K Arena 🎲 Predictions 🏛️ Insiders 8 Analysts
Stock Ratings / Health Care / AVBP
ARDX (24) WVE (22) ANNX (30) SGMT (41) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

ArriVent BioPharma Inc. (AVBP) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$13.35 -10.22% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.08

ArriVent BioPharma Inc. (AVBP) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 29/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $733.2M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AVBP Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AVBP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, ArriVent BioPharma Inc. (NASDAQ: AVBP) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $13.35 (-10.22% 1D, market cap $733.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, AVBP ranks #821 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AVBP compare to ARDX and WVE in the Health Care sector?
▼

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AVBP carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ARDX (Ardelyx Inc.) holds a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -32.7%, cap $755.0M) and WVE (Wave Life Sciences Inc.) posts a E grade (22/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $708.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AVBP leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while ARDX leads on capital efficiency (-32.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AVBP?
▼

Per AVBP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001868279), ArriVent BioPharma Inc. generated $497.1M in revenue (+88.2% YoY), -$166.3M in net income, and -$160.6M in free cash flow against $333.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.08 (-2.03%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (29/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510029
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (6)Whales (3)SEC (10)Macro (7)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13% Base Target
$38 Bull$12 Base$9 Bear
📬 FREE AVBP RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AVBP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (29/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AVBP SCORES 29/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (34% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+7/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 8% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 34.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
37
Grade E$16.09+17.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
34
Grade E$18.85-18.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
32
Grade E$15.40-13.3% Next Q
Current
29
Grade E$13.35-9.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (37) → E (29)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AVBP Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AVBP currently carries a cautious 29/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($24.22) and Max Pain ($14.02) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $37.62.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AVBP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AVBP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 29%NO 71%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
34.330 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
2 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE8% OF RANGE
L: $11$13.35H: $36
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 6 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 6 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 17 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on AVBP

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (30)

-35.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -20.42% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 2/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (22)

6/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 7/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like AVBP
  • ✓Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AVBP)

  • ✓Walkthrough of AVBP's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
AVBP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -56.06%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $15.95H $15.95L $13.35C $13.35VOL 1.19M
RES: $29.43SUP: $6.74SMA50: $24.22SMA200: $26.90
$37.54$30.45$23.35$16.25$9.16RES $29.43SUP $6.74$13.352026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AVBP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AVBP Butterfly Map → + Track AVBP →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +88.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AVBP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AVBP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AVBP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AVBP)

Health Care Rank #821 of 1015 ⚔️ ARDX vs AVBP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AVBP vs. ARDX, WVE, ANNX, SGMT)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, ArriVent BioPharma Inc. (AVBP) ranks #821 by composite RQD confidence (29/100, grade E) and #391 by equity capitalization ($733.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AVBP leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while ARDX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -32.7% ROIC and 90.3% gross margin. SGMT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 41/100 (D-) compared with AVBP at 29/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AVBP ACTIVE
ArriVent BioPharma Inc.
E 29/100 — — -35.0% -10.22% $733.2M Benchmark Subject
ARDX
Ardelyx Inc.
E 24/100 — 90.3% -32.7% 0.00% $755.0M /ardx-vs-avbp →
WVE
Wave Life Sciences Inc.
E 22/100 — — -35.0% -1.95% $708.1M /wve-vs-avbp →
ANNX
Annexon Inc.
E 30/100 — — -35.0% -2.72% $767.8M /annx-vs-avbp →
SGMT
Sagimet Biosciences Inc. (Series A)
D- 41/100 — — -35.0% -2.32% $699.7M /sgmt-vs-avbp →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001868279 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), ArriVent BioPharma Inc. (AVBP) reported GAAP revenue of $497.1M (+88.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $264.1M , and +138.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$166.3M, operating cash flow of -$160.6M, and free cash flow of -$160.6M (-128.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, AVBP closed FY2025 with $333.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $497.1M -$166.3M -$160.6M -$160.6M $333.2M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $264.1M -$80.5M -$70.2M -$70.2M $274.9M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $208.9M -$69.3M -$55.8M -$55.8M — —

3. AVBP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AVBP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, ArriVent BioPharma Inc. (NASDAQ: AVBP) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $13.35 (-10.22% 1D, market cap $733.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, AVBP ranks #821 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AVBP compare to ARDX and WVE in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AVBP carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ARDX (Ardelyx Inc.) holds a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -32.7%, cap $755.0M) and WVE (Wave Life Sciences Inc.) posts a E grade (22/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $708.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AVBP leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while ARDX leads on capital efficiency (-32.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AVBP?

Per AVBP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001868279), ArriVent BioPharma Inc. generated $497.1M in revenue (+88.2% YoY), -$166.3M in net income, and -$160.6M in free cash flow against $333.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AVBP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AVBP last traded at $13.35 (-10.22% on volume of 1,238,269 shares), positioning the stock -44.88% below its 50-day simple moving average ($24.22) and -50.37% below its 200-day simple moving average ($26.90). Across its 52-week range of $11.36 to $35.83, AVBP sits at the 8.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 34.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($11.68 to $15.02).

Direct Sub-Reports: AVBP RQD Cockpit AVBP 12M Forecast AVBP Earnings & Move AVBP Dividends & DRIP AVBP Insiders & 13F AVBP Whale Options AVBP Profit Sankey AVBP News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 29/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AVBP — ArriVent BioPharma Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

ArriVent BioPharma Inc. (AVBP) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 29/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $13.35 (-10.22% 1D, market capitalization $733.2M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (6/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of -20.42%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

ArriVent BioPharma Inc. (AVBP) is listed on NASDAQ and operates in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. The source data describes the company as a biotechnology issuer with a market capitalization of $0.8B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), ArriVent BioPharma Inc. (AVBP) reported $497.1M in annual revenue (up from $264.1M in FY2024, +88.2% YoY) and -$166.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($208.9M revenue, -$69.3M net income) through FY2025, AVBP scaled operating cash flow to -$160.6M and free cash flow to -$160.6M, backed by $333.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 29/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -20.42% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 6/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $11.36 – $35.83 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (Health Care), AVBP carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can AVBP sustain or expand its — operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $497.1M and free cash flow of -$160.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is AVBP's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

AVBP Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for ArriVent BioPharma Inc. (AVBP) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AVBP Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AVBP Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $13.35?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AVBP 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AVBP:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $18.14 (+22.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The stock trades at $15.95 with a 52-week low of $11.36, and a TradingView item references a price target of $37.55 implying 32% upside

Picked up a starter position in AVBP in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $14.87. The stock trades at $15.95 with a 52-week low of $11.36, and a TradingView item references a price target of $37.55 implying 32% upside.. Trading inside a $11.36–$35.83 52-week range with -20.42% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations multiples expand this quarter.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@QuantViper Agree on the RQD 29/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $14.87 and keeping dry powder in case we test $13.83.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $11.30 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $14.87

With FY 2025 operating loss of -$177.5M against $45.5M in cash, ROIC of -35%, and recent trial-failure headlines, the company faces a f

With FY 2025 operating loss of -$177.5M against $45.5M in cash, ROIC of -35%, and recent trial-failure headlines, the company faces a financing and clinical-execution risk.. Look at the math on AVBP: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for -35.0% ROIC and 0.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $13.09 before getting long.

LIVE TAPE SPY $752.10 -1.80% QQQ $681.09 -3.60% DIA $519.34 -1.08% IWM $279.14 -1.68% NVDA $202.06 -1.26% AAPL $338.32 -1.83% MSFT $507.12 -2.83% TSLA $403.82 +1.00% PLTR $178.34 -3.13% SOFI $16.60 -0.95% IBIT $43.35 -5.42% GLD $361.65 -3.59%