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Stock Ratings / Health Care / COLL
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Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. (COLL) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$23.68 -0.50% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $23.61

Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. (COLL) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $774.8M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is COLL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ: COLL) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $23.68 (-0.50% 1D, market cap $774.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, COLL ranks #169 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does COLL compare to HELP and ANNX in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), COLL carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.4x, gross margin of 59.3%, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, HELP (Helus Pharma Inc.) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $774.1M) and ANNX (Annexon Inc.) posts a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $767.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, COLL leads on earnings multiple (12.4x) while COLL leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for COLL?
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Per COLL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001267565), Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. generated $780.6M in revenue (+23.6% YoY), $63.0M in net income, and $327.6M in free cash flow against $1.66B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (59.3% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $23.61 (-0.28%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 42% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
025507510059
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D
Cash (16)Whales (8)SEC (12)Macro (8)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.5% Base Target
$53 Bull$24 Base$19 Bear
📬 FREE COLL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for COLL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY COLL SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 42% FCF Margin ($327.6M FCF) & 59.3% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (56.1) create a -12 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
51
Grade C-$21.53+7.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
54
Grade C-$23.23-1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
56
Grade C$23.00+3% Next Q
Current
59
Grade C-$23.68+0.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (51) → C- (59)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the COLL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, COLL faces multiple-compression risk if 12.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($23.17) or 200D SMA ($33.01) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($23.79) toward Bear Floor ($18.56).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $COLL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “COLL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM
56.130 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)
1.27>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
7 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE8% OF RANGE
L: $21$23.68H: $51
1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (59.3% gross margin and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: B+RQD 16 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 23 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 20 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on COLL

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BULLISH (80)

85.0% ROIC with 59.3% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (60)

Altman-Z 1.27 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
NEUTRAL (52)

23/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 8/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like COLL
  • ✓Strong cash generator (59.3% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (COLL Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
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COLL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -31.52%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $24.03H $24.03L $23.68C $23.68VOL 402.0K
RES: $24.16SUP: $15.89SMA50: $23.17SMA200: $33.01
$41.83$36.30$30.77$25.24$19.71RES $24.16SUP $15.89$23.682026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

COLL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 COLL Butterfly Map → + Track COLL →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
3.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +23.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on COLL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for COLL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for COLL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (COLL)

Health Care Rank #169 of 1015 ⚔️ HELP vs COLL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (COLL vs. HELP, ANNX, ARDX, AVBP)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. (COLL) ranks #169 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #384 by equity capitalization ($774.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, COLL leads on earnings valuation at 12.4x trailing P/E, while COLL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 59.3% gross margin. COLL currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
COLL ACTIVE
Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc.
C- 59/100 12.4x 59.3% 85.0% -0.50% $774.8M Benchmark Subject
HELP
Helus Pharma Inc.
D+ 53/100 — — — -16.94% $774.1M /help-vs-coll →
ANNX
Annexon Inc.
E 30/100 — — -35.0% -2.72% $767.8M /annx-vs-coll →
ARDX
Ardelyx Inc.
E 24/100 — 90.3% -32.7% 0.00% $755.0M /ardx-vs-coll →
AVBP
ArriVent BioPharma Inc.
E 29/100 — — -35.0% -10.22% $733.2M /avbp-vs-coll →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001267565 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. (COLL) reported GAAP revenue of $780.6M (+23.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $631.4M , and +37.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $63.0M, operating cash flow of $329.3M, and free cash flow of $327.6M (+61.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, COLL closed FY2025 with $1.66B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.27, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $780.6M $63.0M $329.3M $327.6M $1.66B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $631.4M $69.0M $205.0M $203.3M $1.66B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $566.8M $48.0M $274.7M $274.7M — —

3. COLL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is COLL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ: COLL) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $23.68 (-0.50% 1D, market cap $774.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, COLL ranks #169 in composite RQD confidence.

How does COLL compare to HELP and ANNX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), COLL carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.4x, gross margin of 59.3%, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, HELP (Helus Pharma Inc.) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $774.1M) and ANNX (Annexon Inc.) posts a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $767.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, COLL leads on earnings multiple (12.4x) while COLL leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for COLL?

Per COLL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001267565), Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. generated $780.6M in revenue (+23.6% YoY), $63.0M in net income, and $327.6M in free cash flow against $1.66B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (59.3% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is COLL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

COLL last traded at $23.68 (-0.50% on volume of 600,695 shares), positioning the stock +2.20% above its 50-day simple moving average ($23.17) and -28.26% below its 200-day simple moving average ($33.01). Across its 52-week range of $21.43 to $50.79, COLL sits at the 7.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.8% ($22.07 to $25.29).

Direct Sub-Reports: COLL RQD Cockpit COLL 12M Forecast COLL Earnings & Move COLL Dividends & DRIP COLL Insiders & 13F COLL Whale Options COLL Profit Sankey COLL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 59/100 (C-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

COLL — Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. (COLL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 59/100, corresponding to a C- letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $23.68 (-0.50% 1D, market capitalization $774.8M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (16/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 85.0%, gross margin of 59.3%, operating margin of 23.0%, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.27, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. (COLL) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. It operates with a market capitalization of $0.8B. Per the recent news wire, the company is described as repositioning its focus from pain management toward ADHD.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. (COLL) reported $780.6M in annual revenue (up from $631.4M in FY2024, +23.6% YoY) and $63.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($566.8M revenue, $48.0M net income) through FY2025, COLL scaled operating cash flow to $329.3M and free cash flow to $327.6M, backed by $1.66B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C- • RQD 59/100): Strong cash generator (59.3% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 16/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $21.43 – $50.79 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 12.4x trailing P/E and 3.0x EV/EBITDA against 23.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (Health Care), COLL carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 59.3%.

  • Key Question #1: Can COLL sustain or expand its 23.0% operating margin and 85.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $780.6M and free cash flow of $327.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is COLL's 10.4x forward P/E multiple to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

COLL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. (COLL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to COLL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

COLL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $23.68?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON COLL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on COLL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $31.42 (+32.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

ROIC of 85% combined with a forward P/E of 10.4 and reported FY 2025 free cash flow of $327.6M suggests strong capital efficiency at a

Long COLL at $23.80 targeting $31.42. ROIC of 85% combined with a forward P/E of 10.4 and reported FY 2025 free cash flow of $327.6M suggests strong capital efficiency at a low earnings multiple.. Institutional whale score is 8/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $21.43 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — COLL's 12/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $18.56 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $23.80

A RED RISK WATCH item on a narrow guidance cut, a 0% FCF yield, an Altman Z of 1.27, and FY 2025 net income falling to $63.0M from $69.

I respect the product at Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc., but the stock at $23.80 is a different story. A RED RISK WATCH item on a narrow guidance cut, a 0% FCF yield, an Altman Z of 1.27, and FY 2025 net income falling to $63.0M from $69.0M despite higher revenue.. FCF yield is 0.0% and RQD sits at 59/100 (C-) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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