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Stock Ratings / Health Care / AVLN / earnings
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Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

$25.60 -0.12% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $25.55

Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 44/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.14B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AVLN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Avalyn Pharma Inc. (NASDAQ: AVLN) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $25.60 (-0.12% 1D, market cap $1.14B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AVLN ranks #386 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AVLN compare to MNKD and AMPH in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AVLN carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, MNKD (MannKind Corporation) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 54.5%, cap $1.13B) and AMPH (Amphastar Pharmaceuticals Inc.) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 11.7x, ROIC 9.0%, cap $1.18B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AMPH leads on earnings multiple (11.7x) while MNKD leads on capital efficiency (54.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AVLN?
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Per AVLN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001540171), Avalyn Pharma Inc. generated $62.5M in revenue, $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $148.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $25.55 (-0.21%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 50.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510044
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+
Cash (10)Whales (3)SEC (13)Macro (9)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.3% Base Target
$42 Bull$24 Base$19 Bear
📬 FREE AVLN RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AVLN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (44/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AVLN SCORES 44/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (30% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 50.9% FCF Margin ($31.8M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
36
Grade E$23.74+3.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
39
Grade E$24.63+4.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
41
Grade D$25.83-0.9% Next Q
Current
44
Grade D$25.60-6.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (36) → D (44)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AVLN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AVLN currently carries a cautious 44/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($29.66) and Max Pain ($26.88) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $42.18.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AVLN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AVLN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 44%NO 56%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$3.20 Expected Swing
$22.40 (-12.5%)Spot $25.60$28.80 (+12.5%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

AVLN Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 44/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (44/100)Model Risk Weight (56/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$62.5M$0$052%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AVLN)

  • ✓Walkthrough of AVLN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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AVLN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -11.94%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $25.71H $25.71L $25.60C $25.60VOL 343.5K
RES: $46.67SUP: $22.04SMA50: $29.66SMA200: $29.93
$41.43$36.23$31.03$25.83$20.63RES $46.67SUP $22.04$25.602026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AVLN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AVLN Butterfly Map → + Track AVLN →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AVLN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AVLN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AVLN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AVLN)

Health Care Rank #386 of 1016 ⚔️ MNKD vs AVLN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AVLN vs. MNKD, AMPH, VSTM, RAPP)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN) ranks #386 by composite RQD confidence (44/100, grade D) and #340 by equity capitalization ($1.14B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AMPH leads on earnings valuation at 11.7x trailing P/E, while MNKD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 54.5% ROIC and 92.3% gross margin. AMPH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with AVLN at 44/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AVLN ACTIVE
Avalyn Pharma Inc.
D 44/100 — — — -0.12% $1.14B Benchmark Subject
MNKD
MannKind Corporation
D+ 56/100 — 92.3% 54.5% +4.29% $1.13B /mnkd-vs-avln →
AMPH
Amphastar Pharmaceuticals Inc.
B 72/100 11.7x 49.5% 9.0% -2.49% $1.18B /amph-vs-avln →
VSTM
Verastem Inc.
D- 36/100 — — -35.0% -1.64% $1.18B /vstm-vs-avln →
RAPP
Rapport Therapeutics Inc.
E 30/100 — — -22.9% +0.32% $1.20B /rapp-vs-avln →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2025–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001540171

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN) reported GAAP revenue of $62.5M , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, AVLN closed FY2025 with $148.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: N/A).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $62.5M $0 — — $148.9M $0

3. AVLN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AVLN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Avalyn Pharma Inc. (NASDAQ: AVLN) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $25.60 (-0.12% 1D, market cap $1.14B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AVLN ranks #386 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AVLN compare to MNKD and AMPH in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AVLN carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, MNKD (MannKind Corporation) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 54.5%, cap $1.13B) and AMPH (Amphastar Pharmaceuticals Inc.) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 11.7x, ROIC 9.0%, cap $1.18B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AMPH leads on earnings multiple (11.7x) while MNKD leads on capital efficiency (54.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AVLN?

Per AVLN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001540171), Avalyn Pharma Inc. generated $62.5M in revenue, $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $148.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AVLN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AVLN last traded at $25.60 (-0.12% on volume of 445,066 shares), positioning the stock -13.69% below its 50-day simple moving average ($29.66) and -14.47% below its 200-day simple moving average ($29.93). Across its 52-week range of $22.24 to $40.17, AVLN sits at the 18.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($22.40 to $28.80).

Direct Sub-Reports: AVLN RQD Cockpit AVLN 12M Forecast AVLN Earnings & Move AVLN Dividends & DRIP AVLN Insiders & 13F AVLN Whale Options AVLN Profit Sankey AVLN News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 44/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AVLN — Avalyn Pharma Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 44/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $25.60 (-0.12% 1D, market capitalization $1.14B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of —, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (13/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (9/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of N/A, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Avalyn Pharma Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Health Care sector and the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry,. — for specific products, customers, or revenue model. The source data reports revenue of — for FY 2025, so the profile does not confirm a commercial revenue stream.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN) reported $62.5M in annual revenue and $0 in GAAP net income. Operating cash flow reached $0 and free cash flow totaled $0, backed by $148.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 44/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $22.24 – $40.17 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (Health Care), AVLN carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can AVLN sustain or expand its — operating margin and — ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $62.5M and free cash flow of $0, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is AVLN's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

AVLN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AVLN Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AVLN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $25.60?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AVLN 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AVLN:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $33.32 (+30.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance sheet scores 13/20 with a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, a Debt/Equity of 0.5, and $52.3M in cash against $0.0M reported de

Here is why I am bullish on AVLN here at $25.63: Forensic balance sheet scores 13/20 with a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, a Debt/Equity of 0.5, and $52.3M in cash against $0.0M reported debt.. Compare AVLN's 0.0% operating margin and 0.0% ROIC against the rest of Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $24.35 are getting bought.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@DeltaGamma_99 Agree on the RQD 44/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $25.63 and keeping dry powder in case we test $23.84.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $21.53 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $25.63

The RQD rating shows 0% ROIC and 0% FCF yield, with Whale 13F Flow scoring only 3/20 at a $1.14B market cap.

Careful chasing AVLN at $25.63. The RQD rating shows 0% ROIC and 0% FCF yield, with Whale 13F Flow scoring only 3/20 at a $1.14B market cap.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 0.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $21.53 on multiple compression.

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