Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$23.02 -5.85% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $22.73

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 54/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.52B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AYA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (NASDAQ: AYA) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 54/100 at a spot price of $23.02 (-5.85% 1D, market cap $3.52B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, AYA ranks #70 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AYA compare to SKE and CGAU in the Materials sector?
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Within the Materials sector (Precious Metals), AYA carries a Roarable D+ (54/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, SKE (Skeena Resources Limited) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $3.55B) and CGAU (Centerra Gold Inc.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $4.08B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AYA leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while AYA leads on capital efficiency (— ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AYA?
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For Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. and sector rank #70 in Materials, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 8.0%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $22.73 (-1.24%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 2.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 54/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510054
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk C
Cash (12)Whales (8)SEC (13)Macro (12)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.8% Base Target
$32 Bull$23 Base$18 Bear
📬 FREE AYA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AYA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (54/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AYA SCORES 54/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL Trailing 12 Months: 2.5% FCF Margin ($98.6M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
62
Grade C+$26.45+0.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
59
Grade C$26.54-10.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
57
Grade C$23.83-3.4% Next Q
Current
54
Grade D+$23.02-0.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C+ (62) → D+ (54)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AYA Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AYA currently carries a cautious 54/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($27.00) and Max Pain ($24.17) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $32.20.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AYA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AYA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
44.230 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
7 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE64% OF RANGE
L: $9$23.02H: $31
1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 12 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 17 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on AYA

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
NEUTRAL (60)

14.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (48)

17/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 12/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like AYA
  • ✓Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AYA)

  • ✓Walkthrough of AYA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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AYA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +27.32%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $25.29H $25.29L $23.02C $23.02VOL 381.5K
RES: $35.64SUP: $21.25SMA50: $27.00SMA200: $20.87
$31.86$26.91$21.96$17.01$12.06RES $35.64SUP $21.25$23.022026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AYA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AYA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AYA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AYA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AYA)

Materials Rank #70 of 270 ⚔️ SKE vs AYA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (AYA vs. SKE, CGAU, TGB, FSM)

Industry: Precious Metals (74 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA) ranks #70 by composite RQD confidence (54/100, grade D+) and #89 by equity capitalization ($3.52B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AYA leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while AYA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with — ROIC and — gross margin. AYA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 54/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AYA ACTIVE
Aya Gold & Silver Inc.
D+ 54/100 — — — -5.85% $3.52B Benchmark Subject
SKE
Skeena Resources Limited
D 48/100 — — — -5.30% $3.55B /ske-vs-aya →
CGAU
Centerra Gold Inc.
D 50/100 — — — -1.13% $4.08B /cgau-vs-aya →
TGB
Trekor Metals Limited
D+ 54/100 — — — -6.36% $2.88B /tgb-vs-aya →
FSM
Fortuna Mining Corp.
D 47/100 — — — -5.23% $2.85B /fsm-vs-aya →

2. AYA Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA) operates in Precious Metals (Materials) with an equity capitalization of $3.52B, trailing P/E of N/A, forward P/E of N/A, and EV/EBITDA of N/A. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of —, net profit margin of —, ROIC of —, and free cash flow yield of —, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of N/A.

3. AYA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AYA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (NASDAQ: AYA) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 54/100 at a spot price of $23.02 (-5.85% 1D, market cap $3.52B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, AYA ranks #70 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AYA compare to SKE and CGAU in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Precious Metals), AYA carries a Roarable D+ (54/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, SKE (Skeena Resources Limited) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $3.55B) and CGAU (Centerra Gold Inc.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $4.08B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AYA leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while AYA leads on capital efficiency (— ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AYA?

For Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. and sector rank #70 in Materials, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 8.0%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AYA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AYA last traded at $23.02 (-5.85% on volume of 869,940 shares), positioning the stock -14.74% below its 50-day simple moving average ($27.00) and +10.30% above its 200-day simple moving average ($20.87). Across its 52-week range of $9.25 to $30.67, AYA sits at the 64.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.2% ($20.90 to $25.14).

AYA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell AYA stock right now?

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell — SELL) with 54/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (steady margins) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is AYA's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

AYA's 12-month base price target is $22.61 (range $17.64 to $32.2), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 54/100 (D+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

AYA — Aya Gold & Silver Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T14:11:49Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, AYA scores 54 out of 100, earning a letter grade of D+ and the verdict label "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 12 of 20 (ROIC 0%; FCF yield 0%); Whale 13F Flow at 8 of 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction at 9 of 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit at 12 of 20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet at 13 of 20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). For a prospective investor, the weakest pillars are the cash engine and institutional/insider flow, which together indicate that the stock's current appeal rests more on price momentum and sector narrative than on reported cash generation. The balance sheet pillar is the relative strength, with Altman Z 2.5 and Piotroski F 6/9 described in the rating's inputs. The verdict signals that, on these inputs, the rating does not favor adding exposure at present. Valuation tradeoffs cannot be fully assessed because P/E, forward P/E, EV/EBITDA, and EPS are not available in source data, so the rating cannot be cross-checked against earnings-based valuation.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, five items reference AYA. Headlines reference a "Boumadine PEA update" (Yahoo Finance, flagged YELLOW, MARKET WIRE) and a "Boumadine Update" affecting fair-value commentary (Yahoo Finance, YELLOW). A Seeking Alpha item carries the headline "The Story Just Got Better" (YELLOW). A ChartMill item describes "Strong Growth Meets High-Quality Technical Setup" (GREEN, CATALYST), and a second ChartMill item describes "An Affordable Growth Story at a Reasonable Valuation" (GREEN, CATALYST). A GuruFocus item reports the stock "Up 4.2%" with a "GF Score: 72/100" (YELLOW). Risk watch items include the fair-value headline, which frames the stock as potentially 26% below fair value, a claim the sources do not validate. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What are the company's reported revenue, earnings, and free cash flow across recent periods, given that the financials section is empty?
  • What do the "Boumadine PEA update" headlines reference, and how would they affect the asset base or cash flows?
  • Does the GuruFocus "GF Score: 72/100" and the 26%-below-fair-value claim reconcile with the Roarable RQD verdict of Trim?
  • What are the analyst consensus rating and price targets, and how do they compare to the current $24.45 price?
  • Who are the institutional holders and insiders, and what is the direction of their recent Form 4 and 13F activity?

AYA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AYA Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AYA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $23.02?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AYA 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AYA:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $26.41 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is AYA (D+ • RQD 54/100) a Buy at $24.45?

Welcome to the AYA (Aya Gold & Silver Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 54/100 (Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim) in Precious Metals. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $19.32 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $24.45

Pump the brakes on AYA — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on AYA, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Aya Gold & Silver Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

AL AlphaFlow_Cap Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $29.10 (+19.0%)
Spot @ $24.45

AYA cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on AYA, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Precious Metals and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $24.45 (52-wk range $9.25 - $30.67), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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