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Stock Ratings / Materials / CGAU
SKE (47) AYA (54) SSRM (60) FSM (46) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$20.57 +1.83% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.60

Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 54/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.91B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on CGAU Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CGAU stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Centerra Gold Inc. (NYSE: CGAU) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 54/100 at a spot price of $20.57 (+1.83% 1D, market cap $3.91B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, CGAU ranks #61 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CGAU compare to SKE and AYA in the Materials sector?
▼

Within the Materials sector (Precious Metals), CGAU carries a Roarable D+ (54/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, SKE (Skeena Resources Limited) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $3.36B) and AYA (Aya Gold & Silver Inc.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $3.32B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SSRM leads on earnings multiple (14.6x) while SSRM leads on capital efficiency (12.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CGAU?
▼

For Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity and sector rank #61 in Materials, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 8.0%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.60 (+0.14%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 2.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 54/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510054
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D · Rk C
Cash (12)Whales (8)SEC (13)Macro (12)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.8% Base Target
$26 Bull$20 Base$16 Bear
📬 FREE CGAU RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CGAU)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (54/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CGAU SCORES 54/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL Trailing 12 Months: 2.7% FCF Margin ($109.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
62
Grade C+$22.49-2.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
59
Grade C$21.90-7.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
57
Grade C$20.34+1.1% Next Q
Current
54
Grade D+$20.57-0.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C+ (62) → D+ (54)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CGAU Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While CGAU currently carries a cautious 54/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($22.12) and Max Pain ($21.60) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $25.75.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CGAU• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CGAU Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 54%NO 46%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
39.230 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
7 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE71% OF RANGE
L: $11$20.57H: $25
1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 12 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 17 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40
MULTI-MODEL QUANT PANEL DELIBERATION

Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground) on CGAU

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
NEUTRAL (60)

14.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (48)

17/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 12/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like CGAU
  • ✓Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CGAU)

  • ✓Walkthrough of CGAU's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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CGAU // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +23.25%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $20.43H $20.57L $20.20C $20.57VOL 2.06M
RES: $27.62SUP: $15.13SMA50: $22.12SMA200: $18.98
$25.28$22.14$19.00$15.86$12.72RES $27.62SUP $15.13$20.572026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CGAU Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CGAU Butterfly Map → + Track CGAU →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CGAU today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CGAU. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CGAU today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CGAU)

Materials Rank #61 of 270 ⚔️ SKE vs CGAU Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (CGAU vs. SKE, AYA, SSRM, FSM)

Industry: Precious Metals (74 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) ranks #61 by composite RQD confidence (54/100, grade D+) and #83 by equity capitalization ($3.91B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SSRM leads on earnings valuation at 14.6x trailing P/E, while SSRM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.0% ROIC and — gross margin. SSRM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 60/100 (C-) compared with CGAU at 54/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CGAU ACTIVE
Centerra Gold Inc.
D+ 54/100 — — — +1.83% $3.91B Benchmark Subject
SKE
Skeena Resources Limited
D 47/100 — — — +1.34% $3.36B /ske-vs-cgau →
AYA
Aya Gold & Silver Inc.
D+ 54/100 — — — +2.56% $3.32B /aya-vs-cgau →
SSRM
SSR Mining Inc.
C- 60/100 14.6x — 12.0% +0.98% $5.40B /ssrm-vs-cgau →
FSM
Fortuna Mining Corp.
D 46/100 — — — +2.48% $2.70B /fsm-vs-cgau →

2. CGAU Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) operates in Precious Metals (Materials) with an equity capitalization of $3.91B, trailing P/E of N/A, forward P/E of N/A, and EV/EBITDA of N/A. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of —, net profit margin of —, ROIC of —, and free cash flow yield of —, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of N/A.

3. CGAU Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CGAU stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Centerra Gold Inc. (NYSE: CGAU) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 54/100 at a spot price of $20.57 (+1.83% 1D, market cap $3.91B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, CGAU ranks #61 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CGAU compare to SKE and AYA in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Precious Metals), CGAU carries a Roarable D+ (54/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, SKE (Skeena Resources Limited) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $3.36B) and AYA (Aya Gold & Silver Inc.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $3.32B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SSRM leads on earnings multiple (14.6x) while SSRM leads on capital efficiency (12.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CGAU?

For Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity and sector rank #61 in Materials, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 8.0%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CGAU trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CGAU last traded at $20.57 (+1.83% on volume of 1,375,532 shares), positioning the stock -7.01% below its 50-day simple moving average ($22.12) and +8.38% above its 200-day simple moving average ($18.98). Across its 52-week range of $11.13 to $24.52, CGAU sits at the 70.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 39.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.9% ($18.94 to $22.20).

Direct Sub-Reports: CGAU RQD Cockpit CGAU 12M Forecast CGAU Earnings & Move CGAU Dividends & DRIP CGAU Insiders & 13F CGAU Whale Options CGAU Profit Sankey CGAU News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 54/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

CGAU — Centerra Gold Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-11-03

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 54/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $20.57 (+1.83% 1D, market capitalization $3.91B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of —, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of N/A, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Centerra Gold Inc. Is listed on the NYSE under the ticker CGAU..1B.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 54/100): Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 8/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $11.13 – $24.52 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists no upstream or downstream links, no sector correlations, and no proprietary signals for this name.

  • Key Question #1: Can CGAU sustain or expand its — operating margin and — ROIC against Precious Metals peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Will free cash flow conversion (— FCF yield) strengthen balance-sheet liquidity (Altman Z-Score N/A) toward the $24.52 52-week high?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is CGAU's equity valuation to Materials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

CGAU Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CGAU Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CGAU Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $20.57?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CGAU 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CGAU:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $25.86 (+28.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Per the news wire, a Q3 2026 earnings summary references record buybacks, and a ChartMill item tags the stock as clearing a Minervini t

Picked up a starter position in CGAU in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $20.20. Per the news wire, a Q3 2026 earnings summary references record buybacks, and a ChartMill item tags the stock as clearing a Minervini trend template with high growth momentum.. Trading inside a $11.13–$24.52 52-week range with 0.0% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Precious Metals multiples expand this quarter.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — CGAU's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $16.56 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $20.20

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC and FCF yield are both 0% and the composite score sits at 50 with a D grade and an underperform/distr

Fading this rally in CGAU at $20.20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC and FCF yield are both 0% and the composite score sits at 50 with a D grade and an underperform/distribution-warning verdict.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $20.20 (52-wk range $11.13–$24.52), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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