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Stock Ratings / Health Care / AYTU / options
TXMD (34) ATOS (33) QNRX (37) QNTM (46) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Aytu BioPharma Inc. (AYTU) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$1.94 +0.52% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.94

Aytu BioPharma Inc. (AYTU) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 27/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E β€’ RED ALERT Cap $21.0M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AYTU stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Aytu BioPharma Inc. (NASDAQ: AYTU) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 27/100 at a spot price of $1.94 (+0.52% 1D, market cap $21.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, AYTU ranks #890 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AYTU compare to TXMD and ATOS in the Health Care sector?
β–Ό

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AYTU carries a Roarable E (27/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 69.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, TXMD (TherapeuticsMD Inc.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -12.9%, cap $20.8M) and ATOS (Atossa Therapeutics Inc.) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $21.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AYTU leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TXMD leads on capital efficiency (-12.9% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AYTU?
β–Ό

Per AYTU's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001385818), Aytu BioPharma Inc. generated $66.4M in revenue (+1.8% YoY), -$13.6M in net income, and -$2.2M in free cash flow against $122.0M in total assets and $10.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.94 (-0.10%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) β€’ 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (27/100 Β· E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT β€’ E
025507510027
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E Β· Rk D-
Cash (4)Whales (3)SEC (11)Macro (6)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.9% Base Target
$3 Bull$2 Base$1 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE AYTU RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AYTU)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±8.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (27/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY AYTU SCORES 27/100 (E) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (41% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 5/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+6/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime Γ— Technicals: 11% of 52W Range β€’ RSI-14 at 43 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
35
Grade E$1.99+1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
32
Grade E$2.01-5.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
30
Grade E$1.90+2.1% Next Q
Current
27
Grade E$1.94-10.3% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: E (35) β†’ E (27)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AYTU Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While AYTU currently carries a cautious 27/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.09) and Max Pain ($2.04) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $3.22.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AYTUβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œAYTU Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 27%NO 73%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±8.8%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (AYTU)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for AYTU.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AYTU)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of AYTU's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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AYTU // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -23.92%β–Ό DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $1.98H $1.98L $1.93C $1.94VOL 97.3K
RES: $2.25SUP: $1.79SMA50: $2.09SMA200: $2.31
$2.68$2.47$2.25$2.04$1.82RES $2.25SUP $1.79$1.942026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AYTU Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ AYTU Butterfly Map β†’ + Track AYTU β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AYTU today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AYTU. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AYTU today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AYTU)

Health Care Rank #890 of 1015 βš”οΈ TXMD vs AYTU Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AYTU vs. TXMD, ATOS, QNRX, QNTM)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Aytu BioPharma Inc. (AYTU) ranks #890 by composite RQD confidence (27/100, grade E) and #825 by equity capitalization ($21.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AYTU leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while TXMD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -12.9% ROIC and β€” gross margin. QNTM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 46/100 (D) compared with AYTU at 27/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AYTU ACTIVE
Aytu BioPharma Inc.
E 27/100 β€” 69.0% -35.0% +0.52% $21.0M Benchmark Subject
TXMD
TherapeuticsMD Inc.
E 34/100 β€” β€” -12.9% +0.56% $20.8M /txmd-vs-aytu β†’
ATOS
Atossa Therapeutics Inc.
E 33/100 β€” β€” -35.0% +5.99% $21.7M /atos-vs-aytu β†’
QNRX
Quoin Pharmaceuticals Ltd.
D- 37/100 β€” β€” -35.0% -11.45% $21.8M /qnrx-vs-aytu β†’
QNTM
Quantum Biopharma Ltd. Class B Subordinate Voting Shares
D 46/100 β€” β€” β€” -5.04% $20.2M /qntm-vs-aytu β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-06-30 β€’ CIK 0001385818 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30), Aytu BioPharma Inc. (AYTU) reported GAAP revenue of $66.4M (+1.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $65.2M , and -38.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$13.6M, operating cash flow of -$1.9M, and free cash flow of -$2.2M (-26.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, AYTU closed FY2025 with $122.0M in total assets against $10.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-06-30 $66.4M -$13.6M -$1.9M -$2.2M $122.0M $10.0M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-06-30 $65.2M -$15.8M -$1.4M -$1.7M $116.2M $10.0M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-06-30 $107.4M -$17.1M -$5.1M -$5.1M β€” β€”

3. AYTU Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AYTU stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Aytu BioPharma Inc. (NASDAQ: AYTU) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 27/100 at a spot price of $1.94 (+0.52% 1D, market cap $21.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, AYTU ranks #890 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AYTU compare to TXMD and ATOS in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AYTU carries a Roarable E (27/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 69.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, TXMD (TherapeuticsMD Inc.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -12.9%, cap $20.8M) and ATOS (Atossa Therapeutics Inc.) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $21.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AYTU leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TXMD leads on capital efficiency (-12.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AYTU?

Per AYTU's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001385818), Aytu BioPharma Inc. generated $66.4M in revenue (+1.8% YoY), -$13.6M in net income, and -$2.2M in free cash flow against $122.0M in total assets and $10.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AYTU trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AYTU last traded at $1.94 (+0.52% on volume of 16,455 shares), positioning the stock -7.18% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.09) and -16.02% below its 200-day simple moving average ($2.31). Across its 52-week range of $1.80 to $3.07, AYTU sits at the 11.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±8.8% ($1.77 to $2.11).

Direct Sub-Reports: AYTU RQD Cockpit AYTU 12M Forecast AYTU Earnings & Move AYTU Dividends & DRIP AYTU Insiders & 13F AYTU Whale Options AYTU Profit Sankey AYTU News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 27/100 (E) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AYTU β€” Aytu BioPharma Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-06-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Aytu BioPharma Inc. (AYTU) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 27/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $1.94 (+0.52% 1D, market capitalization $21.0M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (4/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of 69.0%, operating margin of -11.8%, and free cash flow yield of -10.06%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (11/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.70x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Aytu BioPharma Inc. (AYTU) is a NASDAQ-listed operating company in the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry (Health Care sector) with an equity market capitalization of $21.0M. The business operates with a gross margin of 69%, an operating margin of -11.8%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35% (free cash flow yield of -10.06%). Within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-06-30), Aytu BioPharma Inc. (AYTU) reported $66.4M in annual revenue (up from $65.2M in FY2024, +1.8% YoY) and -$13.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($107.4M revenue, -$17.1M net income) through FY2025, AYTU scaled operating cash flow to -$1.9M and free cash flow to -$2.2M, backed by $122.0M in total assets against $10.0M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (E β€’ RQD 27/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -10.06% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 4/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $1.80 – $3.07 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -11.8% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The only sector context is the Health Care / Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations classification. An investor should watch for the proxy statement timing noted in the news wire, but no supply-chain bottleneck can be identified from the source data.

  • Key Question #1: Can AYTU sustain or expand its -11.8% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $66.4M and free cash flow of -$2.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $10.0M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is AYTU's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

AYTU Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Aytu BioPharma Inc. (AYTU) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to AYTU Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AYTU Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $1.94?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AYTU 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AYTU:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Cross-Asset Macro Desk πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $2.53 (+31.1%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

AYTU (E β€’ RQD 27/100) operating leverage in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations is mispriced at $1.93

Don't sleep on AYTU's setup in Health Care. AYTU (E β€’ RQD 27/100) operating leverage in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations is mispriced at $1.93. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (27/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

CapAlloc_Nerd πŸ‚ BULL

@MacroHawk_NYC Agree on the RQD 27/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $1.93 and keeping dry powder in case we test $1.79.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.45 (-24.9%)
Spot @ $1.93

ROIC of -35%, FCF yield of -10.06%, and revenue down from $107.4M in FY 2023 to $66.4M in FY 2025 show a loss-making business with weak

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short AYTU above $1.93. ROIC of -35%, FCF yield of -10.06%, and revenue down from $107.4M in FY 2023 to $66.4M in FY 2025 show a loss-making business with weak institutional and insider support.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (4/20) and FCF yield (-10.06%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $3.07.

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