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BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (BCRX) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±7.1% Move

$8.24 -2.66% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.18

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (BCRX) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $2.11B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BCRX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: BCRX) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $8.24 (-2.66% 1D, market cap $2.11B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, BCRX ranks #106 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BCRX compare to VCEL and RXRX in the Health Care sector?
▼

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), BCRX carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, VCEL (Vericel Corporation) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 133.0x, ROIC 3.4%, cap $2.07B) and RXRX (Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc.) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.29B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BCRX leads on earnings multiple (8.3x) while BCRX leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BCRX?
▼

Per BCRX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000882796), BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $954.8M in revenue (+13308.9% YoY), $263.9M in net income, and $347.4M in free cash flow against $514.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.18 (-0.67%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 36.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510067
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw B · Rk D+
Cash (18)Whales (10)SEC (13)Macro (9)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4% Base Target
$12 Bull$9 Base$7 Bear
📬 FREE BCRX RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BCRX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY BCRX SCORES 67/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 36.4% FCF Margin ($347.4M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (48.8) create a -11 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
59
Grade C$8.05-3.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
62
Grade C+$7.75+8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
64
Grade C+$8.37-1.6% Next Q
Current
67
Grade C+$8.24+1.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (59) → C+ (67)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BCRX Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, BCRX faces multiple-compression risk if 8.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($8.56) or 200D SMA ($8.77) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($8.57) toward Bear Floor ($6.68).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BCRX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “BCRX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 67%NO 33%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±7.1% Swing Band

±$0.59 Expected Swing
$7.65 (-7.1%)Spot $8.24$8.83 (+7.1%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

BCRX Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 67/100

Trailing EPS: $1.03 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (67/100)Model Risk Weight (33/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$954.8M$263.9M$347.4M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$7.1M-$88.9M-$52.0M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$290.4M-$226.5M-$95.1M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating BCRX & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on BCRX
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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BCRX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -8.75%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-04O $8.46H $8.46L $8.24C $8.24VOL 4.09M
RES: $9.11SUP: $7.48SMA50: $8.56SMA200: $8.77
$11.48$10.41$9.33$8.26$7.19RES $9.11SUP $7.48$8.242026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BCRX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BCRX Butterfly Map → + Track BCRX →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-4.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +13308.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BCRX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BCRX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BCRX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BCRX)

Health Care Rank #106 of 1015 ⚔️ VCEL vs BCRX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (BCRX vs. VCEL, RXRX, COAG, MESO)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (BCRX) ranks #106 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #245 by equity capitalization ($2.11B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BCRX leads on earnings valuation at 8.3x trailing P/E, while BCRX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. BCRX currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 67/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
BCRX ACTIVE
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc.
C+ 67/100 8.3x — 85.0% -2.66% $2.11B Benchmark Subject
VCEL
Vericel Corporation
D+ 58/100 133.0x 74.4% 3.4% +0.62% $2.07B /vcel-vs-bcrx →
RXRX
Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc.
D- 40/100 — 5.0% -35.0% -4.96% $2.29B /rxrx-vs-bcrx →
COAG
Hemab Therapeutics Holdings Inc.
C- 59/100 — — — -0.65% $1.92B /coag-vs-bcrx →
MESO
Mesoblast Limited
D 51/100 — — — -4.09% $1.89B /meso-vs-bcrx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000882796 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (BCRX) reported GAAP revenue of $954.8M (+13308.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $7.1M , and +228.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $263.9M, operating cash flow of $347.4M, and free cash flow of $347.4M (+767.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, BCRX closed FY2025 with $514.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $954.8M $263.9M $347.4M $347.4M $514.2M $0
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $7.1M -$88.9M -$52.0M -$52.0M $490.4M $314.9M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $290.4M -$226.5M -$95.1M -$95.1M — —

3. BCRX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BCRX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: BCRX) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $8.24 (-2.66% 1D, market cap $2.11B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, BCRX ranks #106 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BCRX compare to VCEL and RXRX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), BCRX carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, VCEL (Vericel Corporation) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 133.0x, ROIC 3.4%, cap $2.07B) and RXRX (Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc.) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.29B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BCRX leads on earnings multiple (8.3x) while BCRX leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BCRX?

Per BCRX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000882796), BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $954.8M in revenue (+13308.9% YoY), $263.9M in net income, and $347.4M in free cash flow against $514.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BCRX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BCRX last traded at $8.24 (-2.66% on volume of 4,090,453 shares), positioning the stock -3.74% below its 50-day simple moving average ($8.56) and -6.04% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.77). Across its 52-week range of $6.23 to $11.22, BCRX sits at the 40.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.1% ($7.65 to $8.83).

Direct Sub-Reports: BCRX RQD Cockpit BCRX 12M Forecast BCRX Earnings & Move BCRX Dividends & DRIP BCRX Insiders & 13F BCRX Whale Options BCRX Profit Sankey BCRX News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 67/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

BCRX — BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (BCRX) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 67/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $8.24 (-2.66% 1D, market capitalization $2.11B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (18/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 85.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 15.96%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in the Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) industry. The market capitalization is $2.2B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (BCRX) reported $954.8M in annual revenue (up from $7.1M in FY2024, +13308.9% YoY) and $263.9M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($290.4M revenue, -$226.5M net income) through FY2025, BCRX scaled operating cash flow to $347.4M and free cash flow to $347.4M, backed by $514.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 67/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 18/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $6.23 – $11.22 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 8.3x trailing P/E and 6.1x EV/EBITDA against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (Health Care), BCRX carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can BCRX sustain or expand its — operating margin and 85.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $954.8M and free cash flow of $347.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is BCRX's 7.7x forward P/E multiple to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

BCRX Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (BCRX) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to BCRX Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BCRX Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $8.24?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BCRX 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on BCRX:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $10.50 (+24.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Fundamental cash engine scores 18 of 20 with ROIC at 85% and a 15.96% FCF yield while the stock trades at 8.3x TTM earnings.

Here is why I am bullish on BCRX here at $8.47: Fundamental cash engine scores 18 of 20 with ROIC at 85% and a 15.96% FCF yield while the stock trades at 8.3x TTM earnings.. Compare BCRX's 0.0% operating margin and 85.0% ROIC against the rest of Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances). As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $8.05 are getting bought.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@RiskArb_Desk Shorting a 10/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $8.47 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Health Care.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $6.78 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $8.47

Macro regime fit scores only 9 of 20 and whale/13F flow scores 10 of 20, leaving institutional support and sector alignment as clear we

Careful chasing BCRX at $8.47. Macro regime fit scores only 9 of 20 and whale/13F flow scores 10 of 20, leaving institutional support and sector alignment as clear weak points.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 0.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $6.78 on multiple compression.

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