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Saul Centers Inc. (BFS) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$28.67 -1.81% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.52

Saul Centers Inc. (BFS) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 61/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $721.7M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BFS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Saul Centers Inc. (NYSE: BFS) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $28.67 (-1.81% 1D, market cap $721.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, BFS ranks #368 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BFS compare to CIM and PMT in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), BFS carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 19.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 51.6%. By comparison, CIM (Chimera Investment Corporation) holds a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 9.0%, cap $706.5M) and PMT (PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust of) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E 7.5x, ROIC 4.6%, cap $700.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MFA leads on earnings multiple (3.9x) while BFS leads on capital efficiency (51.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BFS?
▼

Per BFS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000907254), Saul Centers Inc. generated $289.8M in revenue (+7.8% YoY), $37.5M in net income, and $99.8M in free cash flow against $2.16B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.52 (-0.52%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 34.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
025507510061
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C · Rk D+
Cash (18)Whales (4)SEC (13)Macro (10)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.4% Base Target
$40 Bull$29 Base$23 Bear
📬 FREE BFS RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BFS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (61/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY BFS SCORES 61/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (30% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 34.4% FCF Margin ($99.8M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
69
Grade B-$29.43-2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
66
Grade B-$28.83+0.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
64
Grade C+$28.92-0.9% Next Q
Current
61
Grade C-$28.67+0.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (69) → C- (61)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BFS Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 61/100 (C-) score, BFS faces multiple-compression risk if 19.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($30.41) or 200D SMA ($33.48) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($29.06) toward Bear Floor ($22.67).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BFS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “BFS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 61%NO 39%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
9.67% Total Yield
7.87% Cash ($2.26/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
88/100 • FORTRESS PAYOUT
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
37.2% of FCF
8 consecutive years of payout growth
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (14% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $37,072

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $3,585/yr
$11.4K
Yr 1
$13.0K
Yr 2
$14.8K
Yr 3
$16.9K
Yr 4
$19.3K
Yr 5
$21.9K
Yr 6
$25.0K
Yr 7
$28.5K
Yr 8
$32.5K
Yr 9
$37.1K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Cash-Flow & Quality Compounder Desk

Cash-Fortress Compounders: Auditing Free Cash Flow & Yield Safety in BFS & A-Rated Leaders

  • ✓12-month Bull/Base/Bear fair-value walkthrough on BFS and its top sector peer
  • ✓Top Roarable A-Rated cash compounders with verified executive & 13F accumulation
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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BFS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -16.44%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-04O $29.09H $29.20L $28.67C $28.67VOL 114.6K
RES: $30.64SUP: $26.69SMA50: $30.41SMA200: $33.48
$39.11$36.25$33.39$30.53$27.67RES $30.64SUP $26.69$28.672026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BFS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BFS Butterfly Map → + Track BFS →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
12.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BFS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BFS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BFS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BFS)

Financials Rank #368 of 1097 ⚔️ CIM vs BFS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BFS vs. CIM, PMT, CLDT, MFA)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Saul Centers Inc. (BFS) ranks #368 by composite RQD confidence (61/100, grade C-) and #617 by equity capitalization ($721.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MFA leads on earnings valuation at 3.9x trailing P/E, while BFS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 51.6% ROIC and — gross margin. BFS currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 61/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
BFS ACTIVE
Saul Centers Inc.
C- 61/100 19.4x — 51.6% -1.81% $721.7M Benchmark Subject
CIM
Chimera Investment Corporation
E 30/100 — — 9.0% -1.78% $706.5M /cim-vs-bfs →
PMT
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust of
D- 35/100 7.5x — 4.6% -1.74% $700.2M /pmt-vs-bfs →
CLDT
Chatham Lodging Trust of
C- 61/100 46.3x — 4.5% +0.07% $698.9M /cldt-vs-bfs →
MFA
MFA Financial Inc.
D 46/100 3.9x — 9.7% -2.06% $685.4M /mfa-vs-bfs →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000907254 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Saul Centers Inc. (BFS) reported GAAP revenue of $289.8M (+7.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $268.8M , and +12.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $37.5M, operating cash flow of $99.8M, and free cash flow of $99.8M (-17.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, BFS closed FY2025 with $2.16B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $289.8M $37.5M $99.8M $99.8M $2.16B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $268.8M $50.6M $121.2M $121.2M $2.13B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $257.2M $52.7M $117.7M $117.7M — —

3. BFS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BFS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Saul Centers Inc. (NYSE: BFS) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $28.67 (-1.81% 1D, market cap $721.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, BFS ranks #368 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BFS compare to CIM and PMT in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), BFS carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 19.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 51.6%. By comparison, CIM (Chimera Investment Corporation) holds a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 9.0%, cap $706.5M) and PMT (PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust of) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E 7.5x, ROIC 4.6%, cap $700.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MFA leads on earnings multiple (3.9x) while BFS leads on capital efficiency (51.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BFS?

Per BFS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000907254), Saul Centers Inc. generated $289.8M in revenue (+7.8% YoY), $37.5M in net income, and $99.8M in free cash flow against $2.16B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BFS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BFS last traded at $28.67 (-1.81% on volume of 151,673 shares), positioning the stock -5.72% below its 50-day simple moving average ($30.41) and -14.37% below its 200-day simple moving average ($33.48). Across its 52-week range of $28.56 to $38.42, BFS sits at the 1.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.1% ($27.49 to $29.85).

Direct Sub-Reports: BFS RQD Cockpit BFS 12M Forecast BFS Earnings & Move BFS Dividends & DRIP BFS Insiders & 13F BFS Whale Options BFS Profit Sankey BFS News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 61/100 (C-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

BFS — Saul Centers Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Saul Centers Inc. (BFS) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 61/100, corresponding to a C- letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $28.67 (-1.81% 1D, market capitalization $721.7M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (18/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 51.6%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 67.4%, and free cash flow yield of 13.75%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Saul Centers Inc. (BFS) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under the Financials sector and the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry,. — for specific products, customer base, or revenue model detail beyond the sector and industry classification. The company's reported revenue, operating income, and net income appear in the financial data below.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Saul Centers Inc. (BFS) reported $289.8M in annual revenue (up from $268.8M in FY2024, +7.8% YoY) and $37.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($257.2M revenue, $52.7M net income) through FY2025, BFS scaled operating cash flow to $99.8M and free cash flow to $99.8M, backed by $2.16B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C- • RQD 61/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 18/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $28.56 – $38.42 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 19.4x trailing P/E and 3.7x EV/EBITDA against 67.4% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— for upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks. A prospective investor should note that the absence of mapped links means this analysis cannot establish ripple effects from the data provided.

  • Key Question #1: Can BFS sustain or expand its 67.4% operating margin and 51.6% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $289.8M and free cash flow of $99.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is BFS's 18.0x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

BFS Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Saul Centers Inc. (BFS) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to BFS Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BFS Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $28.67?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BFS 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on BFS:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $34.62 (+19.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

ROIC of 51.6% and an FCF yield of 13.75% signal exceptionally efficient cash generation at a $29.37 price near the bottom of its 52-wee

Don't sleep on BFS's setup in Financials. ROIC of 51.6% and an FCF yield of 13.75% signal exceptionally efficient cash generation at a $29.37 price near the bottom of its 52-week range.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (61/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@DeepValue_CFA Agree on the RQD 61/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $29.09 and keeping dry powder in case we test $27.05.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $22.98 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $29.09

Net income fell from $52.7M in FY 2023 to $37.5M in FY 2025 while institutional accumulation scores only 5 of 20.

Fading this rally in BFS at $29.09. Net income fell from $52.7M in FY 2023 to $37.5M in FY 2025 while institutional accumulation scores only 5 of 20.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $29.09 (52-wk range $28.56–$38.42), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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