What is BFST's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

BFST's 12-month base price target is $34.49 (range $26.83 to $40.7), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Financials / BFST

MBWM (56) MCBS (62) CCNE (65) EGBN (54) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Business First Bancshares Inc. (BFST) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

Q: Should I buy, hold, or sell BFST stock right now?

Business First Bancshares Inc. (BFST) currently earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy — BUY) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 10% return on capital) with steady institutional support.

$32.72 +2.89% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $32.97

Business First Bancshares Inc. (BFST) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 10% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $1.04B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on BFST Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BFST stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Business First Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: BFST) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $32.72 (+2.89% 1D, market cap $1.04B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, BFST ranks #109 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BFST compare to MBWM and MCBS in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), BFST carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.8%. By comparison, MBWM (Mercantile Bank Corporation) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 11.8x, ROIC 12.2%, cap $1.03B) and MCBS (MetroCity Bankshares Inc.) posts a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 15.1x, ROIC 12.6%, cap $1.03B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BFST leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while MCBS leads on capital efficiency (12.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BFST?

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Per BFST's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001624322), Business First Bancshares Inc. generated $3.45B in revenue (+4.6% YoY), $87.9M in net income, and $92.0M in free cash flow against $8.21B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $32.97 (+0.76%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 2.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BFST)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (70/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY BFST SCORES 70/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 2.7% FCF Margin ($92.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (59.2) create a -8 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$30.80+2.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$31.57+1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$31.87+2.7% Next Q

Current

Grade B-$32.72+6.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (62) → B- (70)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BFST Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 70/100 (B-) score, BFST faces multiple-compression risk if 11.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($31.12) or 200D SMA ($29.40) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($34.49) toward Bear Floor ($26.83).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BFST• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “BFST Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 70%NO 30%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

59.230 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

5 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE99% OF RANGE

L: $24$32.72H: $33

1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (steady margins and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: BRQD 15 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● BUYING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Hedge funds and options traders are leaning bullish, showing strong institutional appetite.

Factor Grade: BRQD 30 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on BFST

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (75)

9.8% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 8.90% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BULLISH (70)

30/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 12/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like BFST

✓Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (BFST Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

BFST // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +21.05%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-03O $31.77H $32.72L $31.77C $32.72VOL 171.8K

RES: $34.42SUP: $29.51SMA50: $31.12SMA200: $29.40

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BFST Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BFST Butterfly Map → + Track BFST →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

2.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BFST today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BFST. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BFST today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BFST)

Financials Rank #109 of 1097 ⚔️ MBWM vs BFST Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BFST vs. MBWM, MCBS, CCNE, EGBN)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Business First Bancshares Inc. (BFST) ranks #109 by composite RQD confidence (70/100, grade B-) and #542 by equity capitalization ($1.04B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BFST leads on earnings valuation at 11.8x trailing P/E, while MCBS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.6% ROIC and — gross margin. BFST currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 70/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
BFST ACTIVE Business First Bancshares Inc.	B-	70/100	11.8x	—	9.8%	+2.89%	$1.04B	Benchmark Subject
MBWM Mercantile Bank Corporation	D+	56/100	11.8x	—	12.2%	+2.32%	$1.03B	/mbwm-vs-bfst →
MCBS MetroCity Bankshares Inc.	C	62/100	15.1x	—	12.6%	+2.34%	$1.03B	/mcbs-vs-bfst →
CCNE CNB Financial Corporation	C	65/100	16.0x	—	7.6%	+3.10%	$1.05B	/ccne-vs-bfst →
EGBN Eagle Bancorp Inc.	D+	54/100	—	—	-12.2%	+2.67%	$1.01B	/egbn-vs-bfst →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001624322 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Business First Bancshares Inc. (BFST) reported GAAP revenue of $3.45B (+4.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.30B , and +898.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $87.9M, operating cash flow of $92.1M, and free cash flow of $92.0M (+53.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, BFST closed FY2025 with $8.21B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$3.45B	$87.9M	$92.1M	$92.0M	$8.21B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$3.30B	$65.1M	$61.4M	$59.8M	$7.86B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$345.7M	$71.0M	$91.0M	$91.0M	—	—

3. BFST Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BFST stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does BFST compare to MBWM and MCBS in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BFST?

Where is BFST trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BFST last traded at $32.72 (+2.89% on volume of 219,139 shares), positioning the stock +5.14% above its 50-day simple moving average ($31.12) and +11.29% above its 200-day simple moving average ($29.40). Across its 52-week range of $24.06 to $32.53, BFST sits at the 100.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.4% ($31.61 to $33.83).

Direct Sub-Reports: BFST RQD Cockpit BFST 12M Forecast BFST Earnings & Move BFST Dividends & DRIP BFST Insiders & 13F BFST Whale Options BFST Profit Sankey BFST News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 70/100 (B-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

BFST — Business First Bancshares Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Business First Bancshares Inc. (BFST) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 70/100, corresponding to a B- letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $32.72 (+2.89% 1D, market capitalization $1.04B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.8%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 8.90%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (14/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Business First Bancshares Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Financials sector, Major Banks industry. The profile does not describe its specific products, customer base, or revenue model. — for the remaining business description details.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Business First Bancshares Inc. (BFST) reported $3.45B in annual revenue (up from $3.30B in FY2024, +4.6% YoY) and $87.9M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($345.7M revenue, $71.0M net income) through FY2025, BFST scaled operating cash flow to $92.1M and free cash flow to $92.0M, backed by $8.21B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (B- • RQD 70/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 14/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $24.06 – $32.53 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 11.8x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The supply chain is NONE, with no upstream or downstream links recorded and no proprietary signals. The graph's absence means that ripple analysis cannot be grounded in the provided data; a prospective investor should note that the sector context (Financials, Major Banks) is the only structural information available.

Key Question #1: Can BFST sustain or expand its — operating margin and 9.8% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $3.45B and free cash flow of $92.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is BFST's 11.0x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

BFST Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Business First Bancshares Inc. (BFST) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to BFST Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 21h ago

Business First Bancshares (BFST) Q3 Earnings Ride Margin Gains Despite Flat Stock

Yahoo Finance report covering Business First Bancshares Inc. (BFST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Moomoo • 1d ago

Business First Bancshares, Inc. Announces Stock Repurchase Program

Moomoo report covering Business First Bancshares Inc. (BFST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Business First Bancshares, Inc. Estimates – NASDAQ:BFST

TradingView report covering Business First Bancshares Inc. (BFST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Is Business First Bancshares (BFST) A Bargain Or Fully Priced?

Yahoo Finance report covering Business First Bancshares Inc. (BFST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Business First Bancshares, Inc. 2026 Q3 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (NASDAQ:BFST) 2026-10-26

Seeking Alpha report covering Business First Bancshares Inc. (BFST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Stock Titan • 1d ago

Up to $30 million is authorized for share buybacks at Business First Bancshares over two years, but none are required.

Stock Titan report covering Business First Bancshares Inc. (BFST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST GuruFocus • 1d ago

Business First Bancshares (BFST) Launches $30M Buyback Plan Amid Dividend Sustainability Focus

GuruFocus report covering Business First Bancshares Inc. (BFST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE marketscreener.com • 1d ago

Earnings Flash (BFST) Business First Bancshares, Inc. Posts Q3 Adjusted EPS $0.79 per Share, vs. FactSet Est of $0.75

marketscreener.com report covering Business First Bancshares Inc. (BFST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BFST Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $32.72?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BFST 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $39.75 (+25.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction (16/20) and a 8.9% FCF yield with 9.8% ROIC point to strong cash generation and insider support at a forward P/E of

Don't sleep on BFST's setup in Financials. Insider conviction (16/20) and a 8.9% FCF yield with 9.8% ROIC point to strong cash generation and insider support at a forward P/E of 11.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (70/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@BearTrap_Alert Fair point on 11.8x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Major Banks. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $24.49 (-23.0%)

Spot @ $31.80

Macro regime fit (12/20) and a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 show limited defensive positioning and mixed balance-sheet quality, with key fi

Fading this rally in BFST at $31.80. Macro regime fit (12/20) and a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 show limited defensive positioning and mixed balance-sheet quality, with key financial lines reported as zero or N/A.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $31.80 (52-wk range $24.06–$32.53), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.