Should I buy, hold, or sell HBNC stock right now?

Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell — SELL) with 57/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-22% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is HBNC's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

HBNC's 12-month base price target is $21.11 (range $16.47 to $24.91), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Financials / HBNC

CCNE (65) BFST (70) UVSP (64) MBWM (56) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$21.21 +2.46% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $21.26

Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.06B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on HBNC Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HBNC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Horizon Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: HBNC) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $21.21 (+2.46% 1D, market cap $1.06B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, HBNC ranks #485 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HBNC compare to CCNE and BFST in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), HBNC carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -21.9%. By comparison, CCNE (CNB Financial Corporation) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 16.0x, ROIC 7.6%, cap $1.05B) and BFST (Business First Bancshares Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 11.8x, ROIC 9.8%, cap $1.04B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BFST leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while MBWM leads on capital efficiency (12.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HBNC?

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Per HBNC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000706129), Horizon Bancorp Inc. generated $2.70B in revenue (-17.5% YoY), -$150.5M in net income, and $74.3M in free cash flow against $6.44B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $21.26 (+0.25%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 2.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HBNC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY HBNC SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (26% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (21% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 99% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 61.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 10 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$19.13+3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$19.70+5.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$20.85+1.7% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$21.21-0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (49) → D+ (57)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HBNC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, HBNC faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($19.64) or 200D SMA ($18.73) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($21.11) toward Bear Floor ($16.47).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HBNC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “HBNC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

61.230 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

3 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE99% OF RANGE

L: $15$21.21H: $21

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 10 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 22 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on HBNC

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (50)

-21.9% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 6.89% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 3/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (62)

25/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 12/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like HBNC

✓Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HBNC)

✓Walkthrough of HBNC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

HBNC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +17.44%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-11-03O $20.99H $21.21L $20.70C $21.21VOL 653.6K

RES: $19.68SUP: $18.22SMA50: $19.64SMA200: $18.73

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HBNC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HBNC Butterfly Map → + Track HBNC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HBNC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HBNC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HBNC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HBNC)

Financials Rank #485 of 1096 ⚔️ CCNE vs HBNC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (HBNC vs. CCNE, BFST, UVSP, MBWM)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) ranks #485 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #534 by equity capitalization ($1.06B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BFST leads on earnings valuation at 11.8x trailing P/E, while MBWM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.2% ROIC and — gross margin. BFST currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with HBNC at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
HBNC ACTIVE Horizon Bancorp Inc.	D+	57/100	—	—	-21.9%	+2.46%	$1.06B	Benchmark Subject
CCNE CNB Financial Corporation	C	65/100	16.0x	—	7.6%	+3.10%	$1.05B	/ccne-vs-hbnc →
BFST Business First Bancshares Inc.	B-	70/100	11.8x	—	9.8%	+2.89%	$1.04B	/bfst-vs-hbnc →
UVSP Univest Financial Corporation	C	64/100	12.0x	—	9.6%	+4.26%	$1.09B	/uvsp-vs-hbnc →
MBWM Mercantile Bank Corporation	D+	56/100	11.8x	—	12.2%	+2.32%	$1.03B	/mbwm-vs-hbnc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000706129

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) reported GAAP revenue of $2.70B (-17.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.28B , and +699.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$150.5M, operating cash flow of $79.2M, and free cash flow of $74.3M (+5684.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, HBNC closed FY2025 with $6.44B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$2.70B	-$150.5M	$79.2M	$74.3M	$6.44B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$3.28B	$35.4M	$6.4M	$1.3M	$7.80B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$338.0M	$28.0M	$88.9M	$88.9M	—	—

3. HBNC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HBNC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does HBNC compare to CCNE and BFST in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HBNC?

Where is HBNC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HBNC last traded at $21.21 (+2.46% on volume of 545,997 shares), positioning the stock +7.99% above its 50-day simple moving average ($19.64) and +13.24% above its 200-day simple moving average ($18.73). Across its 52-week range of $15.43 to $21.07, HBNC sits at the 100.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 61.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.5% ($20.26 to $22.16).

Direct Sub-Reports: HBNC RQD Cockpit HBNC 12M Forecast HBNC Earnings & Move HBNC Dividends & DRIP HBNC Insiders & 13F HBNC Whale Options HBNC Profit Sankey HBNC News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 57/100 (D+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

HBNC — Horizon Bancorp Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:30:52Z

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

HBNC scores 57 out of 100, a D+ grade labeled "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20 (ROIC -21.9%; FCF yield 6.89%), Whale 13F Flow 15/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction 10/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit 12/20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet 10/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 3/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). For a prospective investor, the pillar mix points to a company whose cash-generation and balance-sheet signals are weak while institutional accumulation is the strongest offsetting factor. The positive FCF yield and the 2.74% dividend yield are the main upside-oriented data points, but the negative ROIC and a Piotroski score of 3/9 weigh against them. Investors should treat the rating as a signal about the balance of evidence in this dataset, not as a recommendation.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Horizon Bancorp Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified under the Financials sector and the Major Banks industry. The profile does not describe its specific products, customer base, or revenue model.

Reported net income moved from $28.0M (FY 2023) to $35.4M (FY 2024) and then to -$150.5M (FY 2025). ROIC is -21.9%, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5, and the Piotroski F-Score is 3/9. Debt/Equity is listed as 0.5 in the RQD forensic pillar, while the debt line in the financials table is —

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case: Institutional accumulation (Whale 13F Flow 15/20) and a 6.89% FCF yield with a 2.74% dividend yield provide the strongest offsetting support in the rating. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 (ROIC -21.9%, FCF yield 6.89%) and Institutional Whale Flow at 15/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $15.43 – $21.07 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case: Negative ROIC of -21.9%, a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and a reported FY 2025 net loss of -$150.5M weigh heavily against the stock's fundamentals. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports no upstream or downstream links and no proprietary signals, so no supply-chain dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks can be identified from the sources.

Key Question #1: What caused the FY 2025 net loss of -$150.5M, and does it relate to the net margin of 0% in the market data?
Key Question #2: Is the Debt/Equity of 0.5 consistent with a debt line that is —?
Key Question #3: What is the current analyst consensus and the full set of price targets beyond the single Piper Sandler reference?

HBNC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HBNC Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 20h ago

Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) Stock Looks About Right As Its 148% Run Continues

Yahoo Finance report covering Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 23h ago

Reason For Optimism Remains At Horizon Bancorp Stock (NASDAQ:HBNC)

Seeking Alpha report covering Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Earnings Beat Could Be A Game Changer For Horizon Bancorp Stock (HBNC)

Yahoo Finance report covering Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE The Globe and Mail • 1d ago

Horizon Bancorp Reports Strong Third Quarter 2026 Results

The Globe and Mail report covering Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Piper Sandler maintains Overweight rating on Horizon Bancorp, $25 price target

TradingView report covering Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

Vanguard updates its Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) stake, reporting sole voting power over 391,588 shares.

Stock Titan report covering Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

Should Return To Profit Require Action From Horizon Bancorp Stock Investors?

Simply Wall St report covering Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Stephens Issues Positive Forecast for Horizon Bancorp (IN) (NASDAQ:HBNC) Stock Price

MarketBeat report covering Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HBNC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $21.21?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HBNC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

BR BreakoutHunter Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $26.08 (+26.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Institutional accumulation (Whale 13F Flow 15/20) and a 6.89% FCF yield with a 2.74% dividend yield provide the strongest offsetting su

Long HBNC at $20.70 targeting $26.08. Institutional accumulation (Whale 13F Flow 15/20) and a 6.89% FCF yield with a 2.74% dividend yield provide the strongest offsetting support in the rating.. Institutional whale score is 15/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $15.43 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@BreakoutHunter Agree on the RQD 57/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $20.70 and keeping dry powder in case we test $19.25.

FO ForensicBear 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $15.52 (-25.0%)

Spot @ $20.70

Negative ROIC of -21.9%, a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and a reported FY 2025 net loss of -$150.5M weigh heavily against the stock's fund

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on HBNC: Negative ROIC of -21.9%, a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and a reported FY 2025 net loss of -$150.5M weigh heavily against the stock's fundamentals.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Major Banks triggers a 12-15% air pocket.