Yahoo Finance report covering Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Why HBNC Stock surged +2.46% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is HBNC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Horizon Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: HBNC) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $21.21 (+2.46% 1D, market cap $1.06B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, HBNC ranks #486 in composite RQD confidence.
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does HBNC compare to CCNE and BFST in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), HBNC carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -21.9%. By comparison, CCNE (CNB Financial Corporation) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 16.0x, ROIC 7.6%, cap $1.05B) and BFST (Business First Bancshares Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 11.8x, ROIC 9.8%, cap $1.04B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BFST leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while MBWM leads on capital efficiency (12.2% ROIC).
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HBNC?
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Per HBNC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000706129), Horizon Bancorp Inc. generated $2.70B in revenue (-17.5% YoY), -$150.5M in net income, and $74.3M in free cash flow against $6.44B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.5% realized swing band)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 99% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 61.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)
Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 10 pts from alignment
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HBNC Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, HBNC faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($19.64) or 200D SMA ($18.73) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($21.11) toward Bear Floor ($16.47).
Why HBNC Stock surged +2.46% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) surged +2.46% to $21.21, trading at 99% of its 52-week range ($15.43 – $21.21). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-22% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 99% of its 52-week range ($15.43 – $21.21) with RSI-14 at 61.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4.5% around $21.21 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $74.3M annual free cash flow.
Seeking Alpha report covering Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
The Globe and Mail report covering Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stock Titan report covering Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Simply Wall St report covering Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
A healthy loan yield cushion and 11.5% capital ratio give Horizon room to grow without sacrificing margin safety.
Horizon Bancorp remains a buy, supported by strong Q3 2026 results, robust profitability metrics, and a forward PE under 10. Read why HBNC stock is a buy.
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HBNC)
- ✓Walkthrough of HBNC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
HBNC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. -17.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HBNC today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HBNC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HBNC)
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (HBNC vs. CCNE, BFST, UVSP, MBWM)
Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) ranks #486 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #535 by equity capitalization ($1.06B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BFST leads on earnings valuation at 11.8x trailing P/E, while MBWM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.2% ROIC and — gross margin. BFST currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with HBNC at 57/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HBNC
ACTIVE
Horizon Bancorp Inc. | D+ | 57/100 | — | — | -21.9% | +2.46% | $1.06B | Benchmark Subject |
| CCNE CNB Financial Corporation | C | 65/100 | 16.0x | — | 7.6% | +3.10% | $1.05B | /ccne-vs-hbnc → |
| BFST Business First Bancshares Inc. | B- | 70/100 | 11.8x | — | 9.8% | +2.89% | $1.04B | /bfst-vs-hbnc → |
| UVSP Univest Financial Corporation | C | 64/100 | 12.0x | — | 9.6% | +4.26% | $1.09B | /uvsp-vs-hbnc → |
| MBWM Mercantile Bank Corporation | D+ | 56/100 | 11.8x | — | 12.2% | +2.32% | $1.03B | /mbwm-vs-hbnc → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000706129 ↗In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) reported GAAP revenue of $2.70B (-17.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.28B , and +699.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$150.5M, operating cash flow of $79.2M, and free cash flow of $74.3M (+5684.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, HBNC closed FY2025 with $6.44B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $2.70B | -$150.5M | $79.2M | $74.3M | $6.44B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $3.28B | $35.4M | $6.4M | $1.3M | $7.80B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $338.0M | $28.0M | $88.9M | $88.9M | — | — |
3. HBNC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs HBNC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-03, Horizon Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: HBNC) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $21.21 (+2.46% 1D, market cap $1.06B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, HBNC ranks #486 in composite RQD confidence.
How does HBNC compare to CCNE and BFST in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), HBNC carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -21.9%. By comparison, CCNE (CNB Financial Corporation) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 16.0x, ROIC 7.6%, cap $1.05B) and BFST (Business First Bancshares Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 11.8x, ROIC 9.8%, cap $1.04B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BFST leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while MBWM leads on capital efficiency (12.2% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HBNC?
Per HBNC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000706129), Horizon Bancorp Inc. generated $2.70B in revenue (-17.5% YoY), -$150.5M in net income, and $74.3M in free cash flow against $6.44B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is HBNC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
HBNC last traded at $21.21 (+2.46% on volume of 545,997 shares), positioning the stock +7.99% above its 50-day simple moving average ($19.64) and +13.24% above its 200-day simple moving average ($18.73). Across its 52-week range of $15.43 to $21.07, HBNC sits at the 100.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 61.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.5% ($20.26 to $22.16).
HBNC — Horizon Bancorp Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 57/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $21.21 (+2.46% 1D, market capitalization $1.06B).
- Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -21.9%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 6.89%.
- Whale 13F & Options Flow (15/20) + Insider Conviction (10/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
- Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.
2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory
Horizon Bancorp Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified under the Financials sector and the Major Banks industry. The profile does not describe its specific products, customer base, or revenue model.
In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) reported $2.70B in annual revenue (up from $3.28B in FY2024, -17.5% YoY) and -$150.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($338.0M revenue, $28.0M net income) through FY2025, HBNC scaled operating cash flow to $79.2M and free cash flow to $74.3M, backed by $6.44B in total assets against $0 in total debt.
3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff
- 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 57/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of 6.89% and institutional whale pillar of 15/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 15/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $15.43 – $21.07 52-week range.
- 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.
4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch
— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports no upstream or downstream links and no proprietary signals, so no supply-chain dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks can be identified from the sources.
- Key Question #1: Can HBNC sustain or expand its — operating margin and -21.9% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
- Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.70B and free cash flow of $74.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
- Key Question #3: How sensitive is HBNC's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?
HBNC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
Yahoo Finance report covering Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
The Globe and Mail report covering Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stock Titan report covering Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Simply Wall St report covering Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
HBNC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $21.21?
Institutional accumulation (Whale 13F Flow 15/20) and a 6.89% FCF yield with a 2.74% dividend yield provide the strongest offsetting su
Long HBNC at $20.70 targeting $26.08. Institutional accumulation (Whale 13F Flow 15/20) and a 6.89% FCF yield with a 2.74% dividend yield provide the strongest offsetting support in the rating.. Institutional whale score is 15/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $15.43 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.
@BreakoutHunter Agree on the RQD 57/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $20.70 and keeping dry powder in case we test $19.25.
Negative ROIC of -21.9%, a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and a reported FY 2025 net loss of -$150.5M weigh heavily against the stock's fund
Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on HBNC: Negative ROIC of -21.9%, a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and a reported FY 2025 net loss of -$150.5M weigh heavily against the stock's fundamentals.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Major Banks triggers a 12-15% air pocket.