ROARABLE
FREE $100K
My Trading Account →
▾
Trading Profile Active
Active Trader
Verified Trader
⚡ My $100K Trading Account → ★ My Saved Watchlist →
🟢 My $100K Account → Today Screener Big Ideas Track Record 💰 $100K Arena 🎲 Predictions 🏛️ Insiders 8 Analysts
Stock Ratings / Financials / HBNC / forecast
CCNE (65) BFST (70) UVSP (64) MBWM (56) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$21.21 +2.46% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $21.26

Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.06B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on HBNC Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HBNC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Horizon Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: HBNC) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $21.21 (+2.46% 1D, market cap $1.06B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, HBNC ranks #486 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HBNC compare to CCNE and BFST in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), HBNC carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -21.9%. By comparison, CCNE (CNB Financial Corporation) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 16.0x, ROIC 7.6%, cap $1.05B) and BFST (Business First Bancshares Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 11.8x, ROIC 9.8%, cap $1.04B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BFST leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while MBWM leads on capital efficiency (12.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HBNC?
▼

Per HBNC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000706129), Horizon Bancorp Inc. generated $2.70B in revenue (-17.5% YoY), -$150.5M in net income, and $74.3M in free cash flow against $6.44B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $21.26 (+0.25%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 2.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510057
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ · Rk D+
Cash (10)Whales (15)SEC (10)Macro (12)CEO (10)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.5% Base Target
$25 Bull$21 Base$16 Bear
📬 FREE HBNC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HBNC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HBNC SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (26% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (21% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 99% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 61.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 10 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
49
Grade D$19.13+3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
52
Grade C-$19.70+5.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
54
Grade C-$20.85+1.7% Next Q
Current
57
Grade D+$21.21-0.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (49) → D+ (57)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HBNC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, HBNC faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($19.64) or 200D SMA ($18.73) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($21.11) toward Bear Floor ($16.47).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HBNC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HBNC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your HBNC Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $21.21: 471.5 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $16.47
$7,765
$-2,235 (-22.3%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $21.11
$9,953
$-47 (-0.5%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $24.91
$11,744
+$1,744 (+17.4%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$2274%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$2369%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$1958%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HBNC)

  • ✓Walkthrough of HBNC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
HBNC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +17.44%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-03O $20.99H $21.21L $20.70C $21.21VOL 653.6K
RES: $19.68SUP: $18.22SMA50: $19.64SMA200: $18.73
$21.52$20.22$18.92$17.62$16.32RES $19.68SUP $18.22$21.212026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HBNC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HBNC Butterfly Map → + Track HBNC →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -17.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HBNC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HBNC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HBNC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HBNC)

Financials Rank #486 of 1097 ⚔️ CCNE vs HBNC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (HBNC vs. CCNE, BFST, UVSP, MBWM)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) ranks #486 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #535 by equity capitalization ($1.06B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BFST leads on earnings valuation at 11.8x trailing P/E, while MBWM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.2% ROIC and — gross margin. BFST currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with HBNC at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
HBNC ACTIVE
Horizon Bancorp Inc.
D+ 57/100 — — -21.9% +2.46% $1.06B Benchmark Subject
CCNE
CNB Financial Corporation
C 65/100 16.0x — 7.6% +3.10% $1.05B /ccne-vs-hbnc →
BFST
Business First Bancshares Inc.
B- 70/100 11.8x — 9.8% +2.89% $1.04B /bfst-vs-hbnc →
UVSP
Univest Financial Corporation
C 64/100 12.0x — 9.6% +4.26% $1.09B /uvsp-vs-hbnc →
MBWM
Mercantile Bank Corporation
D+ 56/100 11.8x — 12.2% +2.32% $1.03B /mbwm-vs-hbnc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000706129 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) reported GAAP revenue of $2.70B (-17.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.28B , and +699.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$150.5M, operating cash flow of $79.2M, and free cash flow of $74.3M (+5684.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, HBNC closed FY2025 with $6.44B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.70B -$150.5M $79.2M $74.3M $6.44B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $3.28B $35.4M $6.4M $1.3M $7.80B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $338.0M $28.0M $88.9M $88.9M — —

3. HBNC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HBNC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Horizon Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: HBNC) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $21.21 (+2.46% 1D, market cap $1.06B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, HBNC ranks #486 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HBNC compare to CCNE and BFST in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), HBNC carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -21.9%. By comparison, CCNE (CNB Financial Corporation) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 16.0x, ROIC 7.6%, cap $1.05B) and BFST (Business First Bancshares Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 11.8x, ROIC 9.8%, cap $1.04B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BFST leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while MBWM leads on capital efficiency (12.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HBNC?

Per HBNC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000706129), Horizon Bancorp Inc. generated $2.70B in revenue (-17.5% YoY), -$150.5M in net income, and $74.3M in free cash flow against $6.44B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HBNC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HBNC last traded at $21.21 (+2.46% on volume of 545,997 shares), positioning the stock +7.99% above its 50-day simple moving average ($19.64) and +13.24% above its 200-day simple moving average ($18.73). Across its 52-week range of $15.43 to $21.07, HBNC sits at the 100.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 61.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.5% ($20.26 to $22.16).

Direct Sub-Reports: HBNC RQD Cockpit HBNC 12M Forecast HBNC Earnings & Move HBNC Dividends & DRIP HBNC Insiders & 13F HBNC Whale Options HBNC Profit Sankey HBNC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 57/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

HBNC — Horizon Bancorp Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 57/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $21.21 (+2.46% 1D, market capitalization $1.06B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -21.9%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 6.89%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (15/20) + Insider Conviction (10/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Horizon Bancorp Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified under the Financials sector and the Major Banks industry. The profile does not describe its specific products, customer base, or revenue model.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) reported $2.70B in annual revenue (up from $3.28B in FY2024, -17.5% YoY) and -$150.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($338.0M revenue, $28.0M net income) through FY2025, HBNC scaled operating cash flow to $79.2M and free cash flow to $74.3M, backed by $6.44B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 57/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of 6.89% and institutional whale pillar of 15/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 15/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $15.43 – $21.07 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports no upstream or downstream links and no proprietary signals, so no supply-chain dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks can be identified from the sources.

  • Key Question #1: Can HBNC sustain or expand its — operating margin and -21.9% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.70B and free cash flow of $74.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is HBNC's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

HBNC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Horizon Bancorp Inc. (HBNC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HBNC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HBNC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $21.21?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HBNC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on HBNC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $26.08 (+26.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Institutional accumulation (Whale 13F Flow 15/20) and a 6.89% FCF yield with a 2.74% dividend yield provide the strongest offsetting su

Long HBNC at $20.70 targeting $26.08. Institutional accumulation (Whale 13F Flow 15/20) and a 6.89% FCF yield with a 2.74% dividend yield provide the strongest offsetting support in the rating.. Institutional whale score is 15/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $15.43 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@BreakoutHunter Agree on the RQD 57/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $20.70 and keeping dry powder in case we test $19.25.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $15.52 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $20.70

Negative ROIC of -21.9%, a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and a reported FY 2025 net loss of -$150.5M weigh heavily against the stock's fund

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on HBNC: Negative ROIC of -21.9%, a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and a reported FY 2025 net loss of -$150.5M weigh heavily against the stock's fundamentals.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Major Banks triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

LIVE TAPE