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SFST (59) BWFG (65) UNTY (63) BSVN (71) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. (BWB) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$20.62 +2.03% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.66

Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. (BWB) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $577.7M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BWB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: BWB) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $20.62 (+2.03% 1D, market cap $577.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, BWB ranks #596 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BWB compare to SFST and BWFG in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), BWB carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.3x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 8.9%. By comparison, SFST (Southern First Bancshares Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 19.0x, ROIC 8.2%, cap $579.0M) and BWFG (Bankwell Financial Group Inc.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 15.8x, ROIC 11.7%, cap $581.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, UNTY leads on earnings multiple (10.1x) while BSVN leads on capital efficiency (17.2% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BWB?
β–Ό

Per BWB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001341317), Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. generated $2.27B in revenue (+6.7% YoY), $46.1M in net income, and $22.0M in free cash flow against $5.41B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.66 (+0.18%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) β€’ 1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 50.1% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D+
025507510052
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D Β· Rk D+
Cash (7)Whales (7)SEC (13)Macro (10)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.7% Base Target
$24 Bull$20 Base$16 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE BWB RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BWB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±4.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY BWB SCORES 52/100 (D+) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 4/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
44
Grade D$20.16-0.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
47
Grade D$20.13+1.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
49
Grade D$20.39+1.1% Next Q
Current
52
Grade D+$20.62-1.1% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: D (44) β†’ D+ (52)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a BWB Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While BWB currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($20.72) and Max Pain ($21.65) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $23.75.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BWBβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œBWB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 52%NO 48%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL β€’ FY 2025 (10-K)

How BWB Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$22.0M (1% FCF Margin)
Revenue$2.27BGross Profit $1.18B (52%)Cost of Sales $1.09BOp Profit $0 (0%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $1.18BNet Profit$46.1M (2%)Tax/Other $0

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

β–  Revenueβ–  Net Profitβ–  Free Cash Flow
FY23
Rev $179.8M
FY24
Rev $2.13B
FY25
Rev $2.27B
Fiscal YearRevenueGross MarginOp MarginNet ProfitFree Cash FlowROIC %
FY 2025$2.27B52%0%$46.1M$22.0M8.9%
FY 2024$2.13B52%0%$32.8M$42.3M8.9%
FY 2023$179.8M46.7%0%$40.0M$30.0M8.9%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BWB)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of BWB's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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BWB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +12.86%⚑ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-04O $20.21H $20.62L $20.21C $20.62VOL 193.4K
RES: $20.99SUP: $19.65SMA50: $20.72SMA200: $19.74
$22.98$21.50$20.02$18.54$17.06RES $20.99SUP $19.65$20.622026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BWB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ BWB Butterfly Map β†’ + Track BWB β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
3.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BWB today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BWB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BWB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BWB)

Financials Rank #596 of 1097 βš”οΈ SFST vs BWB Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BWB vs. SFST, BWFG, UNTY, BSVN)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. (BWB) ranks #596 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #673 by equity capitalization ($577.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, UNTY leads on earnings valuation at 10.1x trailing P/E, while BSVN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.2% ROIC and β€” gross margin. BSVN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with BWB at 52/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
BWB ACTIVE
Bridgewater Bancshares Inc.
D+ 52/100 12.3x β€” 8.9% +2.03% $577.7M Benchmark Subject
SFST
Southern First Bancshares Inc.
C- 59/100 19.0x β€” 8.2% +2.40% $579.0M /sfst-vs-bwb β†’
BWFG
Bankwell Financial Group Inc.
C 65/100 15.8x β€” 11.7% +2.40% $581.5M /bwfg-vs-bwb β†’
UNTY
Unity Bancorp Inc.
C 63/100 10.1x β€” 16.8% +2.77% $591.5M /unty-vs-bwb β†’
BSVN
Bank7 Corp.
B- 71/100 13.1x β€” 17.2% +0.02% $558.6M /bsvn-vs-bwb β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001341317 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. (BWB) reported GAAP revenue of $2.27B (+6.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.13B , and +1162.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $46.1M, operating cash flow of $27.8M, and free cash flow of $22.0M (-48.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, BWB closed FY2025 with $5.41B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.27B $46.1M $27.8M $22.0M $5.41B β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.13B $32.8M $46.4M $42.3M $5.07B β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $179.8M $40.0M $30.0M $30.0M β€” β€”

3. BWB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BWB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: BWB) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $20.62 (+2.03% 1D, market cap $577.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, BWB ranks #596 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BWB compare to SFST and BWFG in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), BWB carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.3x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 8.9%. By comparison, SFST (Southern First Bancshares Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 19.0x, ROIC 8.2%, cap $579.0M) and BWFG (Bankwell Financial Group Inc.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 15.8x, ROIC 11.7%, cap $581.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, UNTY leads on earnings multiple (10.1x) while BSVN leads on capital efficiency (17.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BWB?

Per BWB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001341317), Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. generated $2.27B in revenue (+6.7% YoY), $46.1M in net income, and $22.0M in free cash flow against $5.41B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BWB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BWB last traded at $20.62 (+2.03% on volume of 193,422 shares), positioning the stock -0.48% below its 50-day simple moving average ($20.72) and +4.46% above its 200-day simple moving average ($19.74). Across its 52-week range of $16.06 to $22.62, BWB sits at the 69.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±4.9% ($19.61 to $21.63).

Direct Sub-Reports: BWB RQD Cockpit BWB 12M Forecast BWB Earnings & Move BWB Dividends & DRIP BWB Insiders & 13F BWB Whale Options BWB Profit Sankey BWB News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 52/100 (D+) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

BWB β€” Bridgewater Bancshares Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. (BWB) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 52/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $20.62 (+2.03% 1D, market capitalization $577.7M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (7/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 8.9%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of β€”, and free cash flow yield of 3.87%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. (BWB) is a NASDAQ-listed operating company in the Major Banks industry (Financials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $566.2M. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 0%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 8.9% (free cash flow yield of 3.87%). Within the Major Banks peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. (BWB) reported $2.27B in annual revenue (up from $2.13B in FY2024, +6.7% YoY) and $46.1M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($179.8M revenue, $40.0M net income) through FY2025, BWB scaled operating cash flow to $27.8M and free cash flow to $22.0M, backed by $5.41B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D+ β€’ RQD 52/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 3.87% and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 7/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $16.06 – $22.62 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 12.3x trailing P/E against β€” operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Major Banks (Financials), BWB carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of β€”.

  • Key Question #1: Can BWB sustain or expand its β€” operating margin and 8.9% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.27B and free cash flow of $22.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is BWB's 11.4x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

BWB Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. (BWB) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to BWB Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BWB Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $20.62?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BWB 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on BWB:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Options Flow Specialist πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $25.06 (+24.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Insider-conviction pillar scores 15/20 and the stock trades at a 12.3 P/E with a 3.87% FCF yield.

Here is why I am bullish on BWB here at $20.21: Insider-conviction pillar scores 15/20 and the stock trades at a 12.3 P/E with a 3.87% FCF yield.. Compare BWB's 0.0% operating margin and 8.9% ROIC against the rest of Major Banks. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $19.20 are getting bought.

CapAlloc_Nerd πŸ‚ BULL

@MultipleCompression Fair point on 12.3x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Major Banks. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $15.76 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $20.21

Fundamental cash engine scores only 7/20 with ROIC at 8.9%, and cash fell from $229.8M to $123.5M.

Careful chasing BWB at $20.21. Fundamental cash engine scores only 7/20 with ROIC at 8.9%, and cash fell from $229.8M to $123.5M.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 0.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $15.76 on multiple compression.

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