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Why BWB Stock surged +2.03% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$20.62 +2.03% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.66

Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. (BWB) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $577.7M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BWB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: BWB) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $20.62 (+2.03% 1D, market cap $577.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, BWB ranks #596 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BWB compare to SFST and BWFG in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), BWB carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.9%. By comparison, SFST (Southern First Bancshares Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 19.0x, ROIC 8.2%, cap $579.0M) and BWFG (Bankwell Financial Group Inc.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 15.8x, ROIC 11.7%, cap $581.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, UNTY leads on earnings multiple (10.1x) while BSVN leads on capital efficiency (17.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BWB?
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Per BWB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001341317), Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. generated $2.27B in revenue (+6.7% YoY), $46.1M in net income, and $22.0M in free cash flow against $5.41B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.66 (+0.18%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510052
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D · Rk D+
Cash (7)Whales (7)SEC (13)Macro (10)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.7% Base Target
$24 Bull$20 Base$16 Bear
📬 FREE BWB RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BWB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY BWB SCORES 52/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
44
Grade D$20.16-0.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
47
Grade D$20.13+1.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
49
Grade D$20.39+1.1% Next Q
Current
52
Grade D+$20.62-1.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (44) → D+ (52)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a BWB Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While BWB currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($20.72) and Max Pain ($21.65) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $23.75.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BWB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “BWB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why BWB Stock surged +2.03% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. (BWB) surged +2.03% to $20.62, trading at 70% of its 52-week range ($16.06 – $22.62). Stretched risk/reward at 12x P/E (9% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 70% of its 52-week range ($16.06 – $22.62) with RSI-14 at 52.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4.9% around $20.62 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $22.0M annual free cash flow.
Live BWB Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREYahoo Finance • 2d ago
Bridgewater: Q3 Earnings Snapshot

Yahoo Finance report covering Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. (BWB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BWB)

  • ✓Walkthrough of BWB's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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BWB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +12.86%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-04O $20.21H $20.62L $20.21C $20.62VOL 193.4K
RES: $20.99SUP: $19.65SMA50: $20.72SMA200: $19.74
$22.98$21.50$20.02$18.54$17.06RES $20.99SUP $19.65$20.622026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BWB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
3.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BWB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BWB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BWB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BWB)

Financials Rank #596 of 1097 ⚔️ SFST vs BWB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BWB vs. SFST, BWFG, UNTY, BSVN)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. (BWB) ranks #596 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #673 by equity capitalization ($577.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, UNTY leads on earnings valuation at 10.1x trailing P/E, while BSVN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.2% ROIC and — gross margin. BSVN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with BWB at 52/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
BWB ACTIVE
Bridgewater Bancshares Inc.
D+ 52/100 12.3x — 8.9% +2.03% $577.7M Benchmark Subject
SFST
Southern First Bancshares Inc.
C- 59/100 19.0x — 8.2% +2.40% $579.0M /sfst-vs-bwb →
BWFG
Bankwell Financial Group Inc.
C 65/100 15.8x — 11.7% +2.40% $581.5M /bwfg-vs-bwb →
UNTY
Unity Bancorp Inc.
C 63/100 10.1x — 16.8% +2.77% $591.5M /unty-vs-bwb →
BSVN
Bank7 Corp.
B- 71/100 13.1x — 17.2% +0.02% $558.6M /bsvn-vs-bwb →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001341317 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. (BWB) reported GAAP revenue of $2.27B (+6.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.13B , and +1162.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $46.1M, operating cash flow of $27.8M, and free cash flow of $22.0M (-48.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, BWB closed FY2025 with $5.41B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.27B $46.1M $27.8M $22.0M $5.41B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.13B $32.8M $46.4M $42.3M $5.07B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $179.8M $40.0M $30.0M $30.0M — —

3. BWB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BWB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: BWB) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $20.62 (+2.03% 1D, market cap $577.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, BWB ranks #596 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BWB compare to SFST and BWFG in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), BWB carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.9%. By comparison, SFST (Southern First Bancshares Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 19.0x, ROIC 8.2%, cap $579.0M) and BWFG (Bankwell Financial Group Inc.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 15.8x, ROIC 11.7%, cap $581.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, UNTY leads on earnings multiple (10.1x) while BSVN leads on capital efficiency (17.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BWB?

Per BWB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001341317), Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. generated $2.27B in revenue (+6.7% YoY), $46.1M in net income, and $22.0M in free cash flow against $5.41B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BWB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BWB last traded at $20.62 (+2.03% on volume of 193,422 shares), positioning the stock -0.48% below its 50-day simple moving average ($20.72) and +4.46% above its 200-day simple moving average ($19.74). Across its 52-week range of $16.06 to $22.62, BWB sits at the 69.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.9% ($19.61 to $21.63).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 52/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

BWB — Bridgewater Bancshares Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. (BWB) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 52/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $20.62 (+2.03% 1D, market capitalization $577.7M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (7/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 8.9%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 3.87%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. (BWB) is a NASDAQ-listed operating company in the Major Banks industry (Financials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $566.2M. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 0%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 8.9% (free cash flow yield of 3.87%). Within the Major Banks peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. (BWB) reported $2.27B in annual revenue (up from $2.13B in FY2024, +6.7% YoY) and $46.1M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($179.8M revenue, $40.0M net income) through FY2025, BWB scaled operating cash flow to $27.8M and free cash flow to $22.0M, backed by $5.41B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 52/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 3.87% and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 7/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $16.06 – $22.62 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 12.3x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Major Banks (Financials), BWB carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can BWB sustain or expand its — operating margin and 8.9% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.27B and free cash flow of $22.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is BWB's 11.4x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

BWB Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. (BWB) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to BWB Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BWB Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $20.62?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BWB 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on BWB:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $25.06 (+24.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider-conviction pillar scores 15/20 and the stock trades at a 12.3 P/E with a 3.87% FCF yield.

Here is why I am bullish on BWB here at $20.21: Insider-conviction pillar scores 15/20 and the stock trades at a 12.3 P/E with a 3.87% FCF yield.. Compare BWB's 0.0% operating margin and 8.9% ROIC against the rest of Major Banks. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $19.20 are getting bought.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@MultipleCompression Fair point on 12.3x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Major Banks. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $15.76 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $20.21

Fundamental cash engine scores only 7/20 with ROIC at 8.9%, and cash fell from $229.8M to $123.5M.

Careful chasing BWB at $20.21. Fundamental cash engine scores only 7/20 with ROIC at 8.9%, and cash fell from $229.8M to $123.5M.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 0.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $15.76 on multiple compression.

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