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Stock Ratings / Health Care / CADL / earnings
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Candel Therapeutics Inc. (CADL) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±11.8% Move

$8.12 -2.52% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.07

Candel Therapeutics Inc. (CADL) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 33/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $637.4M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CADL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Candel Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: CADL) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 33/100 at a spot price of $8.12 (-2.52% 1D, market cap $637.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, CADL ranks #673 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CADL compare to AURA and IAM in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), CADL carries a Roarable E (33/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, AURA (Aura Biosciences Inc.) holds a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $636.7M) and IAM (Iambic Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $636.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CADL leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while FDMT leads on capital efficiency (-28.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CADL?
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Per CADL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001841387), Candel Therapeutics Inc. generated $135.1M in revenue (+44.6% YoY), -$38.2M in net income, and -$38.9M in free cash flow against $125.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.07 (-0.64%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (33/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510033
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D+
Cash (4)Whales (5)SEC (10)Macro (11)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-11.2% Base Target
$15 Bull$7 Base$6 Bear
📬 FREE CADL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CADL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (33/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CADL SCORES 33/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+11/20 pts (33% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 39% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 39.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (30% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
41
Grade D$9.27-6.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
38
Grade E$8.64-4.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
36
Grade E$8.25-1.6% Next Q
Current
33
Grade E$8.12-8.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (41) → E (33)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CADL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While CADL currently carries a cautious 33/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($10.50) and Max Pain ($8.53) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $14.70.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CADL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CADL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 33%NO 67%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±11.8% Swing Band

±$0.96 Expected Swing
$7.16 (-11.8%)Spot $8.12$9.08 (+11.8%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

CADL Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 33/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (33/100)Model Risk Weight (67/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$135.1M-$38.2M-$38.9M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$93.4M-$55.2M-$27.0M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$107.5M-$37.9M-$34.2M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CADL)

  • ✓Walkthrough of CADL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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CADL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +7.84%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $8.65H $8.65L $8.12C $8.12VOL 779.9K
RES: $17.09SUP: $7.58SMA50: $10.50SMA200: $8.31
$14.60$12.11$9.61$7.11$4.62RES $17.09SUP $7.58$8.122026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CADL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CADL Butterfly Map → + Track CADL →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +44.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CADL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CADL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CADL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CADL)

Health Care Rank #673 of 1015 ⚔️ AURA vs CADL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (CADL vs. AURA, IAM, FDMT, SLDB)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Candel Therapeutics Inc. (CADL) ranks #673 by composite RQD confidence (33/100, grade E) and #404 by equity capitalization ($637.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CADL leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while FDMT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -28.3% ROIC and — gross margin. IAM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 47/100 (D) compared with CADL at 33/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CADL ACTIVE
Candel Therapeutics Inc.
E 33/100 — — -35.0% -2.52% $637.4M Benchmark Subject
AURA
Aura Biosciences Inc.
E 29/100 — — -35.0% -1.79% $636.7M /aura-vs-cadl →
IAM
Iambic Therapeutics Inc.
D 47/100 — — — -3.54% $636.6M /iam-vs-cadl →
FDMT
4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc.
D 44/100 — — -28.3% -4.45% $657.4M /fdmt-vs-cadl →
SLDB
Solid Biosciences Inc.
E 26/100 — — -35.0% -3.23% $664.8M /sldb-vs-cadl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001841387 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Candel Therapeutics Inc. (CADL) reported GAAP revenue of $135.1M (+44.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $93.4M , and +25.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$38.2M, operating cash flow of -$38.3M, and free cash flow of -$38.9M (-43.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, CADL closed FY2025 with $125.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $135.1M -$38.2M -$38.3M -$38.9M $125.2M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $93.4M -$55.2M -$27.0M -$27.0M $106.9M $1.7M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $107.5M -$37.9M -$34.2M -$34.2M — —

3. CADL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CADL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Candel Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: CADL) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 33/100 at a spot price of $8.12 (-2.52% 1D, market cap $637.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, CADL ranks #673 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CADL compare to AURA and IAM in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), CADL carries a Roarable E (33/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, AURA (Aura Biosciences Inc.) holds a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $636.7M) and IAM (Iambic Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $636.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CADL leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while FDMT leads on capital efficiency (-28.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CADL?

Per CADL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001841387), Candel Therapeutics Inc. generated $135.1M in revenue (+44.6% YoY), -$38.2M in net income, and -$38.9M in free cash flow against $125.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CADL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CADL last traded at $8.12 (-2.52% on volume of 862,037 shares), positioning the stock -22.67% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.50) and -2.29% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.31). Across its 52-week range of $4.35 to $14.00, CADL sits at the 39.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 39.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.8% ($7.16 to $9.08).

Direct Sub-Reports: CADL RQD Cockpit CADL 12M Forecast CADL Earnings & Move CADL Dividends & DRIP CADL Insiders & 13F CADL Whale Options CADL Profit Sankey CADL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 33/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

CADL — Candel Therapeutics Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Candel Therapeutics Inc. (CADL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 33/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $8.12 (-2.52% 1D, market capitalization $637.4M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (4/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of -5.88%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Candel Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: CADL) is classified in the Health Care sector and the Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) industry. The profile describes it as a NASDAQ-listed issuer with a market capitalization of $0.7B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Candel Therapeutics Inc. (CADL) reported $135.1M in annual revenue (up from $93.4M in FY2024, +44.6% YoY) and -$38.2M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($107.5M revenue, -$37.9M net income) through FY2025, CADL scaled operating cash flow to -$38.3M and free cash flow to -$38.9M, backed by $125.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 33/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -5.88% and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 4/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $4.35 – $14.00 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

There are no upstream or downstream links and no proprietary signals in the source data.

  • Key Question #1: Can CADL sustain or expand its — operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $135.1M and free cash flow of -$38.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is CADL's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

CADL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Candel Therapeutics Inc. (CADL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CADL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CADL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $8.12?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CADL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CADL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $10.08 (+21.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Reported cash of $119.7M at FY 2025 provides a balance sheet cushion against the -$38.9M free cash outflow.

Reported cash of $119.7M at FY 2025 provides a balance sheet cushion against the -$38.9M free cash outflow.. When you look under the hood at CADL, Fundamental Cash Engine is 4/20 with 0.0% gross margins and -35.0% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (5/20) has been quietly accumulating below $14.00. My 12M target is $10.08.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — CADL's 10/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $7.16 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $8.33

ROIC of -35% and negative net income in every reported period show the operating engine is not yet generating returns.

Fading this rally in CADL at $8.33. ROIC of -35% and negative net income in every reported period show the operating engine is not yet generating returns.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $8.33 (52-wk range $4.35–$14.00), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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