MARKET WIRESeekingAlpha • 3d ago
AI Cracks Fuel REIT ComebackThe Fed held rates steady following September's hike, with two dissenters favoring another increase. Check out the market update here.
Why CDP Stock slipped -0.51% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$33.03 -0.51% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $32.94
COPT Defense Properties of (CDP) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID
Cap $3.77B
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Is CDP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, COPT Defense Properties of (NYSE: CDP) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $33.03 (-0.51% 1D, market cap $3.77B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, CDP ranks #590 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does CDP compare to LXP and SLG in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), CDP carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, LXP (LXP Industrial Trust (Maryland REIT)) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 31.9x, ROIC 4.4%, cap $3.61B) and SLG (SL Green Realty Corp) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 14.7%, cap $3.58B). Among the 5-stock peer group, LXP leads on earnings multiple (31.9x) while HIW leads on capital efficiency (18.3% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CDP?
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Per CDP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000860546), COPT Defense Properties of generated $42.1M in revenue (-44.3% YoY), $0 in net income, and $309.9M in free cash flow against $4.70B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $32.94 (-0.28%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 736.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.7% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CDP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CDP SCORES 52/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (23% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 736.6% FCF Margin ($309.9M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+12/20 pts (23% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 60% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)
Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (44.6) create a -11 pt regime headwind
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$33.22-0.4% Next Q
60
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$33.09+1.1% Next Q
57
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$33.47-1.3% Next Q
55
CurrentGrade D+$33.03-1.1% Hist 90D α
52
Trajectory: C (60) → D+ (52)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CDP Turnaround Squeeze
While CDP currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (9/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($34.25) and Max Pain ($34.68) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $40.84.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CDP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CDP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why CDP Stock slipped -0.51% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
COPT Defense Properties of (CDP) slipped -0.51% to $33.03, trading at 50% of its 52-week range ($27.06 – $38.9). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (steady margins) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 50% of its 52-week range ($27.06 – $38.9) with RSI-14 at 44.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4.5% around $33.03 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $309.9M annual free cash flow.
Live CDP Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREYahoo • 4d ago
COPT Defense Properties (CDP) Q3 Results Counter Rising Interest CostsCOPT Defense Properties walked into this Q3 2026 earnings print with its stock already under pressure, down double digits over the past three months and slipping another 2.6% today to about US$33. That looks like a short
MARKET WIREYahoo • 4d ago
What COPT Defense Properties (CDP) Said on Its Q3 Earnings CallCOPT Defense Properties (NYSE:CDP) reported third-quarter funds from operations of $0.71 per share, exceeding the midpoint of its guidance by $0.02 and rising 2.9% from a year earlier, as demand for defense-oriented offi
CATALYSTYahoo • 4d ago
COPT Defense Properties (CDP) Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptDefense contractor demand drives 2.9% FFO growth and $530M development pipeline expansion.
MARKET WIREBenzinga • 5d ago
COPT Defense Props Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptCOPT Defense Props (NYSE:CDP) reported third-quarter financial results on Friday. The transcript from the company’s third-quarter earnings call has been provided below.This transcript is brought to you by Benzinga APIs.
MARKET WIRESeekingAlpha • 5d ago
COPT Defense Properties 2026 Q3 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation2026-10-30. The following slide deck was published by COPT Defense Properties in conjunction with their 2026 Q3 earnings call.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 5d ago
COPT Defense Properties Q3 2026 Earnings Call SummaryMoby summary of COPT Defense Properties's Q3 2026 earnings call
MARKET WIREBenzinga • 5d ago
Evercore ISI Group Maintains Outperform on COPT Defense Props, Lowers Price Target to $40Evercore ISI Group analyst Steve Sakwa maintains COPT Defense Props (NYSE:CDP) with a Outperform and lowers the price target from $41 to $40.
MARKET WIREFintel • 5d ago
COPT Defense Properties Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results with EPS of $0.41 and FFO per Share of $0.71CATALYSTChartMill • 5d ago
COPT Defense Properties (NYSE:CDP) Q3 2026 Results Beat Estimates and Lift FFOPS GuidanceCOPT Defense Properties Q3 2026 beats revenue and non-GAAP EPS estimates, raises FFOPS guidance midpoint, citing defense budget support.
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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CDP)
- ✓Walkthrough of CDP's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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CDP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.65%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-04O $33.35H $33.35L $33.03C $33.03VOL 1.29M
RES: $36.09SUP: $32.50SMA50: $34.25SMA200: $33.64
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
CDP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -44.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CDP today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CDP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CDP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CDP)
Financials Rank #590 of 1097
⚔️ LXP vs CDP Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (CDP vs. LXP, SLG, IRT, HIW)
Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, COPT Defense Properties of (CDP) ranks #590 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #322 by equity capitalization ($3.77B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, LXP leads on earnings valuation at 31.9x trailing P/E, while HIW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.3% ROIC and — gross margin. LXP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with CDP at 52/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CDP
ACTIVE
COPT Defense Properties of | D+ | 52/100 | — | — | — | -0.51% | $3.77B | Benchmark Subject |
| LXP LXP Industrial Trust (Maryland REIT) | B- | 70/100 | 31.9x | — | 4.4% | +0.05% | $3.61B | /lxp-vs-cdp → |
| SLG SL Green Realty Corp | C- | 59/100 | — | — | 14.7% | -2.16% | $3.58B | /slg-vs-cdp → |
| IRT Independence Realty Trust Inc. | D | 46/100 | 61.7x | — | 1.6% | -0.87% | $3.52B | /irt-vs-cdp → |
| HIW Highwoods Properties Inc. | C | 65/100 | — | — | 18.3% | -1.60% | $3.45B | /hiw-vs-cdp → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000860546 ↗In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), COPT Defense Properties of (CDP) reported GAAP revenue of $42.1M (-44.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $75.5M , and -30.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $309.9M, and free cash flow of $309.9M (-6.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, CDP closed FY2025 with $4.70B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $42.1M | $0 | $309.9M | $309.9M | $4.70B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $75.5M | $0 | $331.0M | $331.0M | $4.25B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $60.2M | $0 | $276.3M | $276.3M | — | — |
3. CDP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs CDP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-03, COPT Defense Properties of (NYSE: CDP) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $33.03 (-0.51% 1D, market cap $3.77B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, CDP ranks #590 in composite RQD confidence.
How does CDP compare to LXP and SLG in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), CDP carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, LXP (LXP Industrial Trust (Maryland REIT)) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 31.9x, ROIC 4.4%, cap $3.61B) and SLG (SL Green Realty Corp) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 14.7%, cap $3.58B). Among the 5-stock peer group, LXP leads on earnings multiple (31.9x) while HIW leads on capital efficiency (18.3% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CDP?
Per CDP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000860546), COPT Defense Properties of generated $42.1M in revenue (-44.3% YoY), $0 in net income, and $309.9M in free cash flow against $4.70B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is CDP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
CDP last traded at $33.03 (-0.51% on volume of 1,493,138 shares), positioning the stock -3.56% below its 50-day simple moving average ($34.25) and -1.81% below its 200-day simple moving average ($33.64). Across its 52-week range of $27.06 to $38.90, CDP sits at the 50.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.5% ($31.54 to $34.52).
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 52/100 (D+)
✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED
CDP — COPT Defense Properties of: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31
1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
COPT Defense Properties of (CDP) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 52/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $33.03 (-0.51% 1D, market capitalization $3.77B).
- Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of —, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 7.98%.
- Whale 13F & Options Flow (9/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
- Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.
2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory
. The company reports revenue, though the source does not break it down by segment or customer. Per the market data, the company carries a market capitalization of $3.9B.
In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), COPT Defense Properties of (CDP) reported $42.1M in annual revenue (up from $75.5M in FY2024, -44.3% YoY) and $0 in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($60.2M revenue, $0 net income) through FY2025, CDP scaled operating cash flow to $309.9M and free cash flow to $309.9M, backed by $4.70B in total assets against $0 in total debt.
3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff
- 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 52/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 7.98% and institutional whale pillar of 9/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 9/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $27.06 – $38.90 52-week range.
- 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.
4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch
Upstream and downstream dependencies cannot be mapped from the source data, and no sector correlations or bottlenecks are identified.
- Key Question #1: Can CDP sustain or expand its — operating margin and — ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
- Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $42.1M and free cash flow of $309.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
- Key Question #3: How sensitive is CDP's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?
CDP Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for COPT Defense Properties of (CDP) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
🟡 MARKET WIRE SeekingAlpha • 3d ago
AI Cracks Fuel REIT Comeback The Fed held rates steady following September's hike, with two dissenters favoring another increase. Check out the market update here.
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 4d ago
COPT Defense Properties (CDP) Q3 Results Counter Rising Interest Costs COPT Defense Properties walked into this Q3 2026 earnings print with its stock already under pressure, down double digits over the past three months and slipping another 2.6% today to about US$33. That looks like a short
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 4d ago
What COPT Defense Properties (CDP) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call COPT Defense Properties (NYSE:CDP) reported third-quarter funds from operations of $0.71 per share, exceeding the midpoint of its guidance by $0.02 and rising 2.9% from a year earlier, as demand for defense-oriented offi
🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 4d ago
COPT Defense Properties (CDP) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript Defense contractor demand drives 2.9% FFO growth and $530M development pipeline expansion.
🟡 MARKET WIRE Benzinga • 5d ago
COPT Defense Props Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript COPT Defense Props (NYSE:CDP) reported third-quarter financial results on Friday. The transcript from the company’s third-quarter earnings call has been provided below.This transcript is brought to you by Benzinga APIs.
🟡 MARKET WIRE SeekingAlpha • 5d ago
COPT Defense Properties 2026 Q3 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation 2026-10-30. The following slide deck was published by COPT Defense Properties in conjunction with their 2026 Q3 earnings call.
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 5d ago
COPT Defense Properties Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary Moby summary of COPT Defense Properties's Q3 2026 earnings call
🟡 MARKET WIRE Benzinga • 5d ago
Evercore ISI Group Maintains Outperform on COPT Defense Props, Lowers Price Target to $40 Evercore ISI Group analyst Steve Sakwa maintains COPT Defense Props (NYSE:CDP) with a Outperform and lowers the price target from $41 to $40.
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE
3 Active Posts & Replies
CDP Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $33.03?
🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CDP 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH
🎯 Target: $43.69 (+31.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate Reported FY 2025 free cash flow of $309.9M and a 7.98% FCF yield indicate substantial cash generation relative to the stock's $3.88B ma
Don't sleep on CDP's setup in Financials. Reported FY 2025 free cash flow of $309.9M and a 7.98% FCF yield indicate substantial cash generation relative to the stock's $3.88B market cap.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (52/100) backs up the fundamental quality.
ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL
@MultipleCompression Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Real Estate Investment Trusts. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.
MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH
🎯 Target: $28.68 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $33.35 A 0% ROIC, zero reported net income, and a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 point to weak profitability and limited fundamental strength.
Fading this rally in CDP at $33.35. A 0% ROIC, zero reported net income, and a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 point to weak profitability and limited fundamental strength.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $33.35 (52-wk range $27.06–$38.90), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.