The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

Per the Roarable RQD rating, CG scores 33 out of 100 with a letter grade of E, labeled "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 5 of 20 (ROIC 5.4%; FCF yield -18%), Whale 13F Flow at 9 of 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 6 of 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 3 of 20 (Beta 0.88; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 10 of 20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 3/9; Debt/Equity 0.5).

For a prospective investor, the weakest pillars are the cash engine and macro fit. The 5.4% ROIC and -18% FCF yield indicate that reported profitability is not converting into free cash flow in the period covered. The strongest relative pillar, the balance sheet at 10 of 20, still reflects a Piotroski F-Score of 3 of 9, which signals limited financial-health strength. Insider and institutional flow register only moderate scores. The rating therefore frames CG as an elevated-risk name on forensic grounds rather than a fundamentally strong one. Valuation metrics (P/E TTM 17.9, Forward P/E 16.6) appear modest in isolation, but per the Roarable RQD rating and SEC financials, they should be weighed against negative FCF and the low ROIC.

Per the SEC financials, revenue declined from $5425.8M in FY 2024 to $4779.8M in FY 2025, while debt rose from $7540.2M to $9926.5M. Per the market data, operating margin is 20.6%, net margin is 16.9%, and gross margin is 0%. ROIC is 5.4%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5, the Piotroski F-Score is 3 of 9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. The reported FCF in FY 2025 of $-3374.9M is consistent with the -18% FCF yield in the market data.

• Price target cut (RED / RISK WATCH): A headline reports a 12-month price target cut to $56.37, implying 42% upside, per TradingView.
• Lukoil asset deal (YELLOW / MARKET WIRE): Per Seeking Alpha and Bloomberg, Carlyle stated a deal to buy Lukoil assets expired.
• Share price move (GREEN / CATALYST): Per GuruFocus, shares surged 3.9%, with a GF Score of 75 cited.
• Gulf-backed AI push (YELLOW / MARKET WIRE): Per Simply Wall St, investor reaction to a Gulf-backed AI initiative is covered.
• Analyst rating change (YELLOW / MARKET WIRE): Per MarketBeat, Wall Street Zen upgraded the stock to Hold.
• General market wire (YELLOW / MARKET WIRE): A Yahoo Finance UK feed covers market action without specific detail.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply chain status is NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

• What is the composition of the -$3374.9M FY 2025 free cash flow, and how much reflects timing versus structural cash outflow?
• What were the terms and scale of the Lukoil asset transaction, and what was its financial exposure?
• What drove the rise in debt from $7540.2M to $9926.5M, and what is the maturity profile?
• What do the 13F and Form 4 filings show for institutional and insider positioning, given that holders data is absent?
• What explains the basis for the GF Score of 75 relative to the Roarable RQD score of 33?