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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / CHA / earnings
SHAK (49) CBRL (70) ARCO (48) WEN (49) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±8.2% Move

$12.05 +0.25% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.08

Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 75/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 85% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 75/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.7% hit rate) →
ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $2.29B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on CHA Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CHA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Chagee Holdings Limited (NASDAQ: CHA) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 75/100 at a spot price of $12.05 (+0.25% 1D, market cap $2.29B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CHA ranks #67 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CHA compare to SHAK and CBRL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), CHA carries a Roarable B (75/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, SHAK (Shake Shack Inc.) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 60.7x, ROIC 6.8%, cap $3.02B) and CBRL (Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 34.9x, ROIC 5.4%, cap $1.62B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARCO leads on earnings multiple (6.9x) while CHA leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CHA?
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Per CHA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002013649), Chagee Holdings Limited generated $1.85B in revenue, $167.5M in net income, and $175.5M in free cash flow against $1.64B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.08 (+0.28%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 9.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 75/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.7% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B
025507510075
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk B+
Cash (18)Whales (9)SEC (16)Macro (15)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+7.6% Base Target
$17 Bull$13 Base$10 Bear
📬 FREE CHA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CHA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (75/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CHA SCORES 75/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 9.5% FCF Margin ($175.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
67
Grade B-$11.97+3.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
70
Grade B$12.34+0.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
72
Grade B$12.41-2.9% Next Q
Current
75
Grade B$12.05+7.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (67) → B (75)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CHA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 75/100 (B) score, CHA faces multiple-compression risk if 13.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($11.80) or 200D SMA ($11.13) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($12.97) toward Bear Floor ($9.88).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CHA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CHA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 75%NO 25%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±8.2% Swing Band

±$0.99 Expected Swing
$11.06 (-8.2%)Spot $12.05$13.04 (+8.2%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

CHA Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 75/100

Trailing EPS: $0.88 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (75/100)Model Risk Weight (25/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$1.85B$167.5M$175.5M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating CHA & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on CHA
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
CHA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +8.36%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $11.69H $12.05L $11.69C $12.05VOL 414.5K
RES: $13.24SUP: $11.44SMA50: $11.80SMA200: $11.13
$15.05$13.51$11.97$10.42$8.88RES $13.24SUP $11.44$12.052026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CHA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CHA Butterfly Map → + Track CHA →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
5.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CHA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CHA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CHA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CHA)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #67 of 1011 ⚔️ SHAK vs CHA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (CHA vs. SHAK, CBRL, ARCO, WEN)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) ranks #67 by composite RQD confidence (75/100, grade B) and #400 by equity capitalization ($2.29B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARCO leads on earnings valuation at 6.9x trailing P/E, while CHA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. CHA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 75/100 (B).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CHA ACTIVE
Chagee Holdings Limited
B 75/100 13.7x — 85.0% +0.25% $2.29B Benchmark Subject
SHAK
Shake Shack Inc.
D 49/100 60.7x — 6.8% -0.04% $3.02B /shak-vs-cha →
CBRL
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc
B- 70/100 34.9x 69.0% 5.4% -3.31% $1.62B /cbrl-vs-cha →
ARCO
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A)
D 48/100 6.9x 96.0% 18.9% -2.46% $1.45B /arco-vs-cha →
WEN
Wendy's Company
D 49/100 8.3x 63.6% 10.7% +0.63% $1.37B /wen-vs-cha →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2025–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002013649

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) reported GAAP revenue of $1.85B , GAAP net income of $167.5M, operating cash flow of $235.1M, and free cash flow of $175.5M . On the balance sheet, CHA closed FY2025 with $1.64B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.09, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.85B $167.5M $235.1M $175.5M $1.64B —

3. CHA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CHA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Chagee Holdings Limited (NASDAQ: CHA) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 75/100 at a spot price of $12.05 (+0.25% 1D, market cap $2.29B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CHA ranks #67 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CHA compare to SHAK and CBRL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), CHA carries a Roarable B (75/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, SHAK (Shake Shack Inc.) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 60.7x, ROIC 6.8%, cap $3.02B) and CBRL (Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 34.9x, ROIC 5.4%, cap $1.62B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARCO leads on earnings multiple (6.9x) while CHA leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CHA?

Per CHA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002013649), Chagee Holdings Limited generated $1.85B in revenue, $167.5M in net income, and $175.5M in free cash flow against $1.64B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CHA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CHA last traded at $12.05 (+0.25% on volume of 922,688 shares), positioning the stock +2.12% above its 50-day simple moving average ($11.80) and +8.27% above its 200-day simple moving average ($11.13). Across its 52-week range of $8.98 to $16.56, CHA sits at the 40.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.2% ($11.06 to $13.04).

CHA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is CHA's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is CHA stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±8.2% event move for CHA, spanning a range between $11.06 and $13.04.

Direct Sub-Reports: CHA RQD Cockpit CHA 12M Forecast CHA Earnings & Move CHA Dividends & DRIP CHA Insiders & 13F CHA Whale Options CHA Profit Sankey CHA News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 75/100 (B) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

CHA — Chagee Holdings Limited: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T14:12:30Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, CHA scores 75 out of 100 (letter grade B; verdict "Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward"). The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 18 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this is supported by ROIC of 85% and an FCF yield of 7.65%. This is the strongest pillar and the main upside driver in the rating.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 9 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, institutional accumulation and options positioning are the weakest-scoring area, indicating less visible large-holder support than the cash-flow pillar.
  • Insider Conviction: 17 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow scores well, which signals relatively strong insider-side conviction.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 15 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta is 1.0 and sector sensitivity is noted; this suggests market-like exposure to broad moves.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 16 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, Altman Z is 5.09, Piotroski F is 5/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the rating points to a cash-generation story and a balance sheet that scores well on forensic measures, offset by thinner institutional support. Valuation tradeoffs visible in the market data include a P/E (TTM) of 13.7 and an EV/EBITDA of 5. The rating is an educational summary of the source data, not personalized financial advice.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
12.02$2.29B13.712.750.887.69%1.0$8.98 - $16.5685%

Business

Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) is listed on NASDAQ and classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector, Restaurants industry. Per the profile, it has a market capitalization of $2.3B. Not available in source data: product lines, customer base, and specific revenue-generation mechanics.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025 (filed 2025-12-31)$1845.7M$192.7M$167.5MN/A$175.5M$1087.8MN/A

Per the market data, operating margin is 10.4%, net margin is 9.1%, and gross margin is reported as 0%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 85%, Altman Z is 5.09, Piotroski F is 5/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5, indicating a forensically sound balance sheet posture on these measures. Debt for FY 2025 is not available in source data.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies are not available in source data.

Open Questions

  • What drives the FY 2025 revenue and operating income, and what is the company's revenue mix?
  • What is FY 2025 total debt and EPS, given both are reported as N/A?
  • Who are the institutional and insider holders, and what are their recent positions?
  • What catalysts or risks are currently in play, given the news section is empty?
  • Why is the gross margin reported as 0% and how does it reconcile with operating and net margins?

CHA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CHA Debate Forum (3) ↓
🟡 MARKET WIRE Sponsored ADR (CHA) Could Surge 28.15%: Read This Before Placing a Bet • 41d ago
Wall Street Analysts Think Chagee Holdings Limited

The average of price targets set by Wall Street analysts indicates a potential upside of 28.2% in Chagee Holdings Limited - Sponsored ADR (CHA). While the effectiveness of this highly sought-after metric is questionable,

Read Full Source ↗
🟡 MARKET WIRE Sponsored ADR (CHA)'s Technical Outlook is Bright After Key Golden Cross • 45d ago
Chagee Holdings Limited

Good things could be on the horizon when a stock experiences a golden cross event. How should investors react?

Read Full Source ↗
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CHA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $12.05?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CHA 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CHA:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $14.18 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is CHA (B • RQD 75/100) a Buy at $12.02?

Welcome to the CHA (Chagee Holdings Limited) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 75/100 (Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward) in Restaurants. Bulls point to capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $9.62 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $12.02

Pump the brakes on CHA — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on CHA, but look at what you are paying: 13.7x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Chagee Holdings Limited expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

DE DeltaGamma_99 Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $14.78 (+23.0%)
Spot @ $12.02

CHA cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on CHA, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Restaurants and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $12.02 (52-wk range $8.98 - $16.56), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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