ROARABLE
Today ⌘ Pro Terminal Big Ideas 🎲 Predictions Screener 🦋 Butterfly 8 Analysts 🏛️ Policy 🎬 Video ★ Watchlist 🎲 Prediction Markets 📊 RQD Track Record 📅 Next Catalysts 🛡️ Overlap & Crash X-Ray 📰 Live Wire 🐋 13F Whales 🏛️ Congress & CEO Buys 🏆 $100K Arena ⌘ Pro Terminal 📐 Methodology & Corrections
Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / CHA / financials
SHAK (49) CBRL (70) ARCO (48) WEN (49) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$12.05 +0.25% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.08

Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 76/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 85% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 76/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 11% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 70.0% hit rate) →
ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $2.30B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on CHA Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CHA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Chagee Holdings Limited (NASDAQ: CHA) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 76/100 at a spot price of $12.05 (+0.25% 1D, market cap $2.30B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CHA ranks #67 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CHA compare to SHAK and CBRL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
▼

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), CHA carries a Roarable B+ (76/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, SHAK (Shake Shack Inc.) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 60.7x, ROIC 6.8%, cap $3.02B) and CBRL (Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 34.9x, ROIC 5.4%, cap $1.57B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARCO leads on earnings multiple (6.9x) while CHA leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CHA?
▼

Per CHA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002013649), Chagee Holdings Limited generated $1.85B in revenue, $167.5M in net income, and $175.5M in free cash flow against $1.64B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.08 (+0.28%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 9.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 76/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 11% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 70.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+
025507510076
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk B+
Cash (18)Whales (10)SEC (16)Macro (15)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+8.1% Base Target
$17 Bull$13 Base$10 Bear
📬 FREE CHA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CHA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (76/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CHA SCORES 76/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 9.5% FCF Margin ($175.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-10 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
84
Grade A$12.52-0.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
81
Grade A-$12.48-1.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
79
Grade A-$12.25-1.6% Next Q
Current
76
Grade B+$12.05+7.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: A (84) → B+ (76)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CHA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 76/100 (B+) score, CHA faces multiple-compression risk if 13.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($11.82) or 200D SMA ($11.13) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($13.03) toward Bear Floor ($9.88).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CHA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CHA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 76%NO 24%Trade / Inspect Odds →
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How CHA Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$175.5M (9.5% FCF Margin)
Revenue$1.85BGross Profit $959.8M (52%)Cost of Sales $886.0MOp Profit $192.7M (10.4%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $767.1MNet Profit$167.5M (9.1%)Tax/Other $25.2M

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow
FY25
Rev $1.85B
Fiscal YearRevenueGross MarginOp MarginNet ProfitFree Cash FlowROIC %
FY 2025$1.85B52%10.4%$167.5M$175.5M95%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CHA)

  • ✓Walkthrough of CHA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
CHA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +8.36%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $12.02H $12.05L $12.02C $12.05VOL 922.7K
RES: $13.26SUP: $11.47SMA50: $11.82SMA200: $11.13
$15.05$13.51$11.97$10.42$8.88RES $13.26SUP $11.47$12.052026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CHA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CHA Butterfly Map → + Track CHA →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
5.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CHA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CHA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CHA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CHA)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #67 of 1011 ⚔️ SHAK vs CHA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (CHA vs. SHAK, CBRL, ARCO, WEN)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) ranks #67 by composite RQD confidence (76/100, grade B+) and #399 by equity capitalization ($2.30B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARCO leads on earnings valuation at 6.9x trailing P/E, while CHA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. CHA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 76/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CHA ACTIVE
Chagee Holdings Limited
B+ 76/100 13.7x — 85.0% +0.25% $2.30B Benchmark Subject
SHAK
Shake Shack Inc.
D 49/100 60.7x — 6.8% -0.04% $3.02B /shak-vs-cha →
CBRL
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc
B- 70/100 34.9x 69.0% 5.4% -3.31% $1.57B /cbrl-vs-cha →
ARCO
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A)
D 48/100 6.9x 96.0% 18.9% -2.46% $1.42B /arco-vs-cha →
WEN
Wendy's Company
D 49/100 8.3x 63.6% 10.7% +0.63% $1.37B /wen-vs-cha →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2025–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002013649

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) reported GAAP revenue of $1.85B , GAAP net income of $167.5M, operating cash flow of $235.1M, and free cash flow of $175.5M . On the balance sheet, CHA closed FY2025 with $1.64B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.09, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.85B $167.5M $235.1M $175.5M $1.64B —

3. CHA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CHA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Chagee Holdings Limited (NASDAQ: CHA) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 76/100 at a spot price of $12.05 (+0.25% 1D, market cap $2.30B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CHA ranks #67 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CHA compare to SHAK and CBRL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), CHA carries a Roarable B+ (76/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, SHAK (Shake Shack Inc.) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 60.7x, ROIC 6.8%, cap $3.02B) and CBRL (Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 34.9x, ROIC 5.4%, cap $1.57B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARCO leads on earnings multiple (6.9x) while CHA leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CHA?

Per CHA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002013649), Chagee Holdings Limited generated $1.85B in revenue, $167.5M in net income, and $175.5M in free cash flow against $1.64B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CHA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CHA last traded at $12.05 (+0.25% on volume of 922,688 shares), positioning the stock +1.95% above its 50-day simple moving average ($11.82) and +8.27% above its 200-day simple moving average ($11.13). Across its 52-week range of $8.98 to $16.56, CHA sits at the 40.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.8% ($11.11 to $12.99).

CHA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), CHA converted $1.8B of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 10.4% operating margin, and $175.5M in free cash flow (9.5% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: CHA RQD Cockpit CHA 12M Forecast CHA Earnings & Move CHA Dividends & DRIP CHA Insiders & 13F CHA Whale Options CHA Profit Sankey CHA News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 76/100 (B+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

CHA — Chagee Holdings Limited: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T14:12:30Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, CHA scores 75 out of 100 (letter grade B; verdict "Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward"). The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 18 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this is supported by ROIC of 85% and an FCF yield of 7.65%. This is the strongest pillar and the main upside driver in the rating.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 9 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, institutional accumulation and options positioning are the weakest-scoring area, indicating less visible large-holder support than the cash-flow pillar.
  • Insider Conviction: 17 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow scores well, which signals relatively strong insider-side conviction.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 15 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta is 1.0 and sector sensitivity is noted; this suggests market-like exposure to broad moves.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 16 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, Altman Z is 5.09, Piotroski F is 5/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the rating points to a cash-generation story and a balance sheet that scores well on forensic measures, offset by thinner institutional support. Valuation tradeoffs visible in the market data include a P/E (TTM) of 13.7 and an EV/EBITDA of 5. The rating is an educational summary of the source data, not personalized financial advice.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
12.02$2.29B13.712.750.887.69%1.0$8.98 - $16.5685%

Business

Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) is listed on NASDAQ and classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector, Restaurants industry. Per the profile, it has a market capitalization of $2.3B. Not available in source data: product lines, customer base, and specific revenue-generation mechanics.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025 (filed 2025-12-31)$1845.7M$192.7M$167.5MN/A$175.5M$1087.8MN/A

Per the market data, operating margin is 10.4%, net margin is 9.1%, and gross margin is reported as 0%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 85%, Altman Z is 5.09, Piotroski F is 5/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5, indicating a forensically sound balance sheet posture on these measures. Debt for FY 2025 is not available in source data.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies are not available in source data.

Open Questions

  • What drives the FY 2025 revenue and operating income, and what is the company's revenue mix?
  • What is FY 2025 total debt and EPS, given both are reported as N/A?
  • Who are the institutional and insider holders, and what are their recent positions?
  • What catalysts or risks are currently in play, given the news section is empty?
  • Why is the gross margin reported as 0% and how does it reconcile with operating and net margins?

CHA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CHA Debate Forum (3) ↓
🟡 MARKET WIRE Sponsored ADR (CHA) Could Surge 28.15%: Read This Before Placing a Bet • 41d ago
Wall Street Analysts Think Chagee Holdings Limited

The average of price targets set by Wall Street analysts indicates a potential upside of 28.2% in Chagee Holdings Limited - Sponsored ADR (CHA). While the effectiveness of this highly sought-after metric is questionable,

Read Full Source ↗
🟡 MARKET WIRE Sponsored ADR (CHA)'s Technical Outlook is Bright After Key Golden Cross • 45d ago
Chagee Holdings Limited

Good things could be on the horizon when a stock experiences a golden cross event. How should investors react?

Read Full Source ↗
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CHA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $12.05?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CHA 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CHA:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $14.18 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is CHA (B • RQD 75/100) a Buy at $12.02?

Welcome to the CHA (Chagee Holdings Limited) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 75/100 (Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward) in Restaurants. Bulls point to capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $9.62 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $12.02

Pump the brakes on CHA — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on CHA, but look at what you are paying: 13.7x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Chagee Holdings Limited expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

DE DeltaGamma_99 Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $14.78 (+23.0%)
Spot @ $12.02

CHA cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on CHA, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Restaurants and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $12.02 (52-wk range $8.98 - $16.56), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

LIVE TAPE SPY $752.10 -1.80% QQQ $681.09 -3.60% DIA $519.34 -1.08% IWM $279.14 -1.68% NVDA $204.64 -4.22% AAPL $344.63 -1.23% MSFT $521.91 -1.55% TSLA $399.81 -0.86% PLTR $184.11 -6.27% SOFI $16.76 -4.83% IBIT $43.35 -5.42% GLD $361.65 -3.59%