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Stock Ratings / Financials / CHMG / forecast
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Chemung Financial Corp (CHMG) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$87.42 +1.33% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $87.46

Chemung Financial Corp (CHMG) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $421.5M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on CHMG Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CHMG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Chemung Financial Corp (NASDAQ: CHMG) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $87.42 (+1.33% 1D, market cap $421.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, CHMG ranks #176 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CHMG compare to PCB and FNLC in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), CHMG carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 28.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.9%. By comparison, PCB (PCB Bancorp) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 10.9x, ROIC 9.6%, cap $420.5M) and FNLC (First Bancorp Inc (ME)) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 12.0x, ROIC 12.1%, cap $415.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, PCB leads on earnings multiple (10.9x) while FNLC leads on capital efficiency (12.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CHMG?
▼

Per CHMG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000763563), Chemung Financial Corp generated $1.14B in revenue (-2.4% YoY), $15.1M in net income, and $43.8M in free cash flow against $2.71B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $87.46 (+0.05%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 3.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510067
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C+ · Rk C
Cash (12)Whales (15)SEC (13)Macro (13)CEO (14)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4% Base Target
$107 Bull$91 Base$71 Bear
📬 FREE CHMG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CHMG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CHMG SCORES 67/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.6% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 8 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
59
Grade C$79.18+3.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
62
Grade C+$81.65+5.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
64
Grade C+$85.80+1.9% Next Q
Current
67
Grade C+$87.42+1.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (59) → C+ (67)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CHMG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, CHMG faces multiple-compression risk if 28.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($82.79) or 200D SMA ($70.94) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($90.96) toward Bear Floor ($70.95).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CHMG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CHMG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 67%NO 33%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your CHMG Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $87.42: 114.4 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $70.95
$8,116
$-1,884 (-18.8%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $90.96
$10,405
+$405 (+4.0%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $107.33
$12,278
+$2,278 (+22.8%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$9574%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$10169%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$8158%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (CHMG Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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CHMG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +29.76%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-04O $86.27H $87.42L $86.27C $87.42VOL 103.3K
RES: $88.13SUP: $77.11SMA50: $82.79SMA200: $70.94
$90.30$80.74$71.18$61.62$52.06RES $88.13SUP $77.11$87.422026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CHMG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CHMG Butterfly Map → + Track CHMG →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
21.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -2.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CHMG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CHMG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CHMG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CHMG)

Financials Rank #176 of 1097 ⚔️ PCB vs CHMG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (CHMG vs. PCB, FNLC, CZFS, CBAN)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Chemung Financial Corp (CHMG) ranks #176 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #738 by equity capitalization ($421.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PCB leads on earnings valuation at 10.9x trailing P/E, while FNLC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.1% ROIC and — gross margin. FNLC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with CHMG at 67/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CHMG ACTIVE
Chemung Financial Corp
C+ 67/100 28.0x — 5.9% +1.33% $421.5M Benchmark Subject
PCB
PCB Bancorp
C 65/100 10.9x — 9.6% +2.36% $420.5M /pcb-vs-chmg →
FNLC
First Bancorp Inc (ME)
B 73/100 12.0x — 12.1% +1.29% $415.4M /fnlc-vs-chmg →
CZFS
Citizens Financial Services Inc.
B- 70/100 11.2x — 10.8% +0.77% $413.7M /czfs-vs-chmg →
CBAN
Colony Bankcorp Inc.
E 29/100 65.5x — 1.8% +1.38% $437.6M /cban-vs-chmg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000763563 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Chemung Financial Corp (CHMG) reported GAAP revenue of $1.14B (-2.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.17B , and +870.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $15.1M, operating cash flow of $45.5M, and free cash flow of $43.8M (+67.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, CHMG closed FY2025 with $2.71B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.14B $15.1M $45.5M $43.8M $2.71B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.17B $23.7M $29.8M $26.2M $2.78B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $117.3M $25.0M $30.9M $30.9M — —

3. CHMG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CHMG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Chemung Financial Corp (NASDAQ: CHMG) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $87.42 (+1.33% 1D, market cap $421.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, CHMG ranks #176 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CHMG compare to PCB and FNLC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), CHMG carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 28.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.9%. By comparison, PCB (PCB Bancorp) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 10.9x, ROIC 9.6%, cap $420.5M) and FNLC (First Bancorp Inc (ME)) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 12.0x, ROIC 12.1%, cap $415.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, PCB leads on earnings multiple (10.9x) while FNLC leads on capital efficiency (12.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CHMG?

Per CHMG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000763563), Chemung Financial Corp generated $1.14B in revenue (-2.4% YoY), $15.1M in net income, and $43.8M in free cash flow against $2.71B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CHMG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CHMG last traded at $87.42 (+1.33% on volume of 103,273 shares), positioning the stock +5.59% above its 50-day simple moving average ($82.79) and +23.23% above its 200-day simple moving average ($70.94). Across its 52-week range of $50.21 to $87.99, CHMG sits at the 98.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 64.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.6% ($83.40 to $91.44).

Direct Sub-Reports: CHMG RQD Cockpit CHMG 12M Forecast CHMG Earnings & Move CHMG Dividends & DRIP CHMG Insiders & 13F CHMG Whale Options CHMG Profit Sankey CHMG News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 67/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

CHMG — Chemung Financial Corp: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Chemung Financial Corp (CHMG) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 67/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $87.42 (+1.33% 1D, market capitalization $421.5M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 5.9%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 10.37%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (15/20) + Insider Conviction (14/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. Its market capitalization is $0.4B. —: the specific products sold, customer base, and revenue model.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Chemung Financial Corp (CHMG) reported $1.14B in annual revenue (up from $1.17B in FY2024, -2.4% YoY) and $15.1M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($117.3M revenue, $25.0M net income) through FY2025, CHMG scaled operating cash flow to $45.5M and free cash flow to $43.8M, backed by $2.71B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 67/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 15/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $50.21 – $87.99 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 28.0x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Sector and industry are classified as Financials and Major Banks. An investor should note that the absence of mapped links means the source data cannot identify any specific ripple pathways.

  • Key Question #1: Can CHMG sustain or expand its — operating margin and 5.9% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.14B and free cash flow of $43.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is CHMG's 26.0x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

CHMG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Chemung Financial Corp (CHMG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CHMG Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CHMG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $87.42?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CHMG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CHMG:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $113.88 (+32.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Free cash flow rose to $43.8M in FY 2025 from $26.2M in FY 2024, supporting a 10.37% FCF yield.

Long CHMG at $86.27 targeting $113.88. Free cash flow rose to $43.8M in FY 2025 from $26.2M in FY 2024, supporting a 10.37% FCF yield.. Institutional whale score is 15/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $50.05 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — CHMG's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $66.43 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $86.27

Net income fell from $25.0M in FY 2023 to $15.1M in FY 2025 while the trailing P/E sits at 28 on a 5.9% ROIC.

I respect the product at Chemung Financial Corp, but the stock at $86.27 is a different story. Net income fell from $25.0M in FY 2023 to $15.1M in FY 2025 while the trailing P/E sits at 28 on a 5.9% ROIC.. FCF yield is 10.37% and RQD sits at 67/100 (C+) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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