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Why CHRD Stock dropped -6.11% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$147.39 -6.11% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $145.49

Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $8.59B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on CHRD Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CHRD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Chord Energy Corporation (NASDAQ: CHRD) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $147.39 (-6.11% 1D, market cap $8.59B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, CHRD ranks #53 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CHRD compare to VIST and NE in the Energy sector?
▼

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), CHRD carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 80.0%, and ROIC of 1.7%. By comparison, VIST (Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V. American) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $7.84B) and NE (Noble Corporation plc A) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 35.0x, ROIC 5.4%, cap $7.82B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SM leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while SM leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CHRD?
▼

Per CHRD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001486159), Chord Energy Corporation generated $4.88B in revenue (-7.1% YoY), $44.5M in net income, and $1.82B in free cash flow against $13.07B in total assets and $1.48B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $145.49 (-1.29%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 37.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510067
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C+ · Rk C+
Cash (10)Whales (17)SEC (12)Macro (15)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.1% Base Target
$181 Bull$153 Base$120 Bear
📬 FREE CHRD RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CHRD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CHRD SCORES 67/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+17/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±5.7% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 83% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 61.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 4% operating margin leave 10 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
59
Grade C$146.18+3.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
62
Grade C+$150.85+2.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
64
Grade C+$154.06-4.3% Next Q
Current
67
Grade C+$147.39+1.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (59) → C+ (67)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CHRD Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, CHRD faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 77.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($146.57) or 200D SMA ($132.20) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($153.36) toward Bear Floor ($119.62).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CHRD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CHRD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 67%NO 33%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why CHRD Stock dropped -6.11% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) dropped -6.11% to $147.39, trading at 83% of its 52-week range ($84.25 – $159.96). Solid 80.0% gross margin (2% return on capital), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 83% of its 52-week range ($84.25 – $159.96) with RSI-14 at 61.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.7% around $147.39 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C+ (Hold) backed by 80% gross margin and $1.8B annual free cash flow.
Live CHRD Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREThe Globe and Mail • 1d ago
Best Income Stock to Buy for October 21st

The Globe and Mail report covering Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

CATALYSTYahoo • 3d ago
MarketBeat Week in Review – 10/26 - 10/30

Stocks wavered after the Fed held rates steady and Alphabet's earnings missed on Search revenue, fueling AI bubble concerns despite strong results from Microsoft and resilient earnings elsewhere.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (CHRD Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
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CHRD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.25%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $153.6H $157.0L $147.4C $147.4VOL 660.1K
RES: $160.5SUP: $141.7SMA50: $146.6SMA200: $132.2
$163.7$148.1$132.4$116.8$101.1RES $160.5SUP $141.7$147.42026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CHRD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CHRD Butterfly Map → + Track CHRD →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
24.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -7.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CHRD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CHRD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CHRD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CHRD)

Energy Rank #53 of 211 ⚔️ VIST vs CHRD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (CHRD vs. VIST, NE, RIG, SM)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) ranks #53 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #62 by equity capitalization ($8.59B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SM leads on earnings valuation at 14.5x trailing P/E, while SM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.5% ROIC and — gross margin. SM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 82/100 (A-) compared with CHRD at 67/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CHRD ACTIVE
Chord Energy Corporation
C+ 67/100 — 80.0% 1.7% -6.11% $8.59B Benchmark Subject
VIST
Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V. American
C 64/100 32.8x — 9.9% -5.05% $7.84B /vist-vs-chrd →
NE
Noble Corporation plc A
C+ 69/100 35.0x — 5.4% -7.22% $7.82B /ne-vs-chrd →
RIG
Transocean Ltd (Switzerland)
C- 59/100 — 39.3% -17.3% -10.23% $7.75B /rig-vs-chrd →
SM
SM Energy Company
A- 82/100 14.5x — 12.5% -7.28% $9.60B /sm-vs-chrd →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001486159 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) reported GAAP revenue of $4.88B (-7.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $5.25B , and +25.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $44.5M, operating cash flow of $2.04B, and free cash flow of $1.82B (-2.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, CHRD closed FY2025 with $13.07B in total assets against $1.48B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.66, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $4.88B $44.5M $2.04B $1.82B $13.07B $1.48B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $5.25B $848.6M $2.10B $1.86B $13.03B $842.6M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $3.90B $1.02B $1.82B $1.64B $4.68B $1.09B

3. CHRD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CHRD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Chord Energy Corporation (NASDAQ: CHRD) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $147.39 (-6.11% 1D, market cap $8.59B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, CHRD ranks #53 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CHRD compare to VIST and NE in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), CHRD carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 80.0%, and ROIC of 1.7%. By comparison, VIST (Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V. American) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $7.84B) and NE (Noble Corporation plc A) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 35.0x, ROIC 5.4%, cap $7.82B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SM leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while SM leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CHRD?

Per CHRD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001486159), Chord Energy Corporation generated $4.88B in revenue (-7.1% YoY), $44.5M in net income, and $1.82B in free cash flow against $13.07B in total assets and $1.48B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CHRD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CHRD last traded at $147.39 (-6.11% on volume of 1,000,904 shares), positioning the stock +0.56% above its 50-day simple moving average ($146.57) and +11.49% above its 200-day simple moving average ($132.20). Across its 52-week range of $84.25 to $159.96, CHRD sits at the 83.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 61.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.7% ($138.99 to $155.79).

Direct Sub-Reports: CHRD RQD Cockpit CHRD 12M Forecast CHRD Earnings & Move CHRD Dividends & DRIP CHRD Insiders & 13F CHRD Whale Options CHRD Profit Sankey CHRD News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 67/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

CHRD — Chord Energy Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 67/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $147.39 (-6.11% 1D, market capitalization $8.59B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 1.7%, gross margin of 80.0%, operating margin of 4.0%, and free cash flow yield of 21.67%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (17/20) + Insider Conviction (13/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (15/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 1.15x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.66, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.18x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Chord Energy Corporation is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Energy sector, operating within Oil & Gas Production per the company profile. The company reports revenue in the billions of dollars annually, but the composition of that revenue is not itemized in the source data.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) reported $4.88B in annual revenue (up from $5.25B in FY2024, -7.1% YoY) and $44.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($3.90B revenue, $1.02B net income) through FY2025, CHRD scaled operating cash flow to $2.04B and free cash flow to $1.82B, backed by $13.07B in total assets against $1.48B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 67/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of 21.67% and institutional whale pillar of 17/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 17/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $84.25 – $159.96 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Investors must weigh current valuation and 25.2x EV/EBITDA against 4.0% operating margins and a 1.15x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

A prospective investor should recognize that commodity-price exposure, which is typical of this industry, is not quantified in the provided sources.

  • Key Question #1: Can CHRD sustain or expand its 4.0% operating margin and 1.7% ROIC against Oil & Gas Production peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $4.88B and free cash flow of $1.82B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.48B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is CHRD's equity valuation to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.15x)?

CHRD Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CHRD Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CHRD Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $147.39?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CHRD 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CHRD:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $188.39 (+20.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

High 21.67% FCF yield and strong 17/20 institutional flow signal cash generation and positioning ahead of the price.

Long CHRD at $156.99 targeting $188.39. High 21.67% FCF yield and strong 17/20 institutional flow signal cash generation and positioning ahead of the price.. Institutional whale score is 17/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $84.25 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@RiskArb_Desk Shorting a 17/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $156.99 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Energy.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $124.02 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $156.99

Net income collapsed from $848.6M to $44.5M while debt rose to $1.48B, with an Altman Z of 1.66 and ROIC of only 1.7%.

Fading this rally in CHRD at $156.99. Net income collapsed from $848.6M to $44.5M while debt rose to $1.48B, with an Altman Z of 1.66 and ROIC of only 1.7%.. With a beta of 1.15 and the stock sitting at $156.99 (52-wk range $84.25–$159.96), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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