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Commerce.com Inc. Series 1 (CMRC) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$3.40 +3.34% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.41

Commerce.com Inc. Series 1 (CMRC) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 43/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID Cap $272.6M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on CMRC Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CMRC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Commerce.com Inc. Series 1 (NASDAQ: CMRC) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $3.40 (+3.34% 1D, market cap $272.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, CMRC ranks #453 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CMRC compare to ARQQ and XPER in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), CMRC carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 78.7%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ARQQ (Arqit Quantum Inc.) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $273.7M) and XPER (Xperi Inc.) posts a E grade (22/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -9.7%, cap $260.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MKTW leads on earnings multiple (56.1x) while MKTW leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CMRC?
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Per CMRC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001626450), Commerce.com Inc. Series 1 generated $342.3M in revenue (+2.8% YoY), -$19.3M in net income, and $25.5M in free cash flow against $308.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.41 (+0.41%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 7.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-
025507510043
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Cash (6)Whales (9)SEC (8)Macro (11)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.8% Base Target
$6 Bull$3 Base$2 Bear
📬 FREE CMRC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CMRC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (43/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CMRC SCORES 43/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+11/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 40% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 47.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+9/20 pts (21% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 14 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
35
Grade E$3.36+13.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
38
Grade E$3.80-10.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
40
Grade D$3.41-0.3% Next Q
Current
43
Grade D-$3.40-6.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (35) → D- (43)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CMRC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While CMRC currently carries a cautious 43/100 (D-) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.18) and Max Pain ($3.57) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $5.83.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CMRC• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CMRC Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 43%NO 57%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your CMRC Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $3.40: 2941.2 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $2.47
$7,265
$-2,735 (-27.4%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $3.17
$9,324
$-676 (-6.8%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $5.83
$17,147
+$7,147 (+71.5%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$374%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$569%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$358%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CMRC)

  • ✓Walkthrough of CMRC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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CMRC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +12.21%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $3.44H $3.44L $3.29C $3.40VOL 363.2K
RES: $4.09SUP: $1.15SMA50: $3.18SMA200: $2.93
$4.14$3.55$2.95$2.36$1.77RES $4.09SUP $1.15$3.402026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CMRC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CMRC Butterfly Map → + Track CMRC →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +2.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CMRC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CMRC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CMRC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CMRC)

Technology Rank #453 of 715 ⚔️ ARQQ vs CMRC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (CMRC vs. ARQQ, XPER, MKTW, GIBO)

Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Commerce.com Inc. Series 1 (CMRC) ranks #453 by composite RQD confidence (43/100, grade D-) and #451 by equity capitalization ($272.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MKTW leads on earnings valuation at 56.1x trailing P/E, while MKTW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 86.5% gross margin. MKTW currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with CMRC at 43/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CMRC ACTIVE
Commerce.com Inc. Series 1
D- 43/100 — 78.7% -35.0% +3.34% $272.6M Benchmark Subject
ARQQ
Arqit Quantum Inc.
D 44/100 — — — -9.41% $273.7M /arqq-vs-cmrc →
XPER
Xperi Inc.
E 22/100 — — -9.7% +1.69% $260.0M /xper-vs-cmrc →
MKTW
MarketWise Inc. (Class A)
C+ 69/100 56.1x 86.5% 85.0% +4.30% $313.7M /mktw-vs-cmrc →
GIBO
GIBO Holdings Limited (Class A)
D+ 52/100 — — -35.0% -0.03% $226.7M /gibo-vs-cmrc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001626450 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Commerce.com Inc. Series 1 (CMRC) reported GAAP revenue of $342.3M (+2.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $332.9M , and +10.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$19.3M, operating cash flow of $25.5M, and free cash flow of $25.5M (-2.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, CMRC closed FY2025 with $308.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $342.3M -$19.3M $25.5M $25.5M $308.8M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $332.9M -$27.0M $26.3M $26.3M $340.3M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $309.4M -$64.7M -$24.2M -$24.2M — —

3. CMRC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CMRC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Commerce.com Inc. Series 1 (NASDAQ: CMRC) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $3.40 (+3.34% 1D, market cap $272.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, CMRC ranks #453 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CMRC compare to ARQQ and XPER in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), CMRC carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 78.7%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ARQQ (Arqit Quantum Inc.) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $273.7M) and XPER (Xperi Inc.) posts a E grade (22/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -9.7%, cap $260.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MKTW leads on earnings multiple (56.1x) while MKTW leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CMRC?

Per CMRC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001626450), Commerce.com Inc. Series 1 generated $342.3M in revenue (+2.8% YoY), -$19.3M in net income, and $25.5M in free cash flow against $308.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CMRC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CMRC last traded at $3.40 (+3.34% on volume of 428,517 shares), positioning the stock +6.92% above its 50-day simple moving average ($3.18) and +16.04% above its 200-day simple moving average ($2.93). Across its 52-week range of $1.95 to $5.55, CMRC sits at the 40.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.98 to $3.82).

Direct Sub-Reports: CMRC RQD Cockpit CMRC 12M Forecast CMRC Earnings & Move CMRC Dividends & DRIP CMRC Insiders & 13F CMRC Whale Options CMRC Profit Sankey CMRC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 43/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

CMRC — Commerce.com Inc. Series 1: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Commerce.com Inc. Series 1 (CMRC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 43/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $3.40 (+3.34% 1D, market capitalization $272.6M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (6/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of 78.7%, operating margin of -4.7%, and free cash flow yield of 8.94%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (9/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.20, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Commerce.com Inc. Series 1 (CMRC) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Technology sector, within the Computer Software: Prepackaged Software industry..3B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Commerce.com Inc. Series 1 (CMRC) reported $342.3M in annual revenue (up from $332.9M in FY2024, +2.8% YoY) and -$19.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($309.4M revenue, -$64.7M net income) through FY2025, CMRC scaled operating cash flow to $25.5M and free cash flow to $25.5M, backed by $308.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 43/100): Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 8.94% and institutional whale pillar of 9/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 6/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 9/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $1.95 – $5.55 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -4.7% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (Technology), CMRC carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 78.7%.

  • Key Question #1: Can CMRC sustain or expand its -4.7% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Computer Software: Prepackaged Software peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $342.3M and free cash flow of $25.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is CMRC's equity valuation to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

CMRC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Commerce.com Inc. Series 1 (CMRC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CMRC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CMRC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $3.40?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CMRC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CMRC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $4.01 (+21.9%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Free cash flow yield of 8.94% and a price well below the 52-week high of $5.55 offer a cash-generation signal against the bearish ratin

Picked up a starter position in CMRC in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $3.29. Free cash flow yield of 8.94% and a price well below the 52-week high of $5.55 offer a cash-generation signal against the bearish rating.. Trading inside a $1.95–$5.55 52-week range with 8.94% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Computer Software: Prepackaged Software multiples expand this quarter.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@TapeReader_Pro Agree on the RQD 43/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $3.29 and keeping dry powder in case we test $3.06.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.73 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $3.29

ROIC of -35% and an Altman Z-Score of 0.2 signal weak capital returns and distress-range balance sheet risk.

Fading this rally in CMRC at $3.29. ROIC of -35% and an Altman Z-Score of 0.2 signal weak capital returns and distress-range balance sheet risk.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $3.29 (52-wk range $1.95–$5.55), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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