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Stock Ratings / Industrials / DEC / financials
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Diversified Energy Company (DEC) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$13.74 -4.85% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.59

Diversified Energy Company (DEC) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 51/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.11B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is DEC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Diversified Energy Company (NYSE: DEC) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 51/100 at a spot price of $13.74 (-4.85% 1D, market cap $1.11B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, DEC ranks #214 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does DEC compare to SLSR and PSUS in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Diversified Equities), DEC carries a Roarable D (51/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.5%. By comparison, SLSR (Solaris Resources Inc.) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.09B) and PSUS (Pershing Square USA Ltd.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $983.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, DEC leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while DEC leads on capital efficiency (11.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for DEC?
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Per DEC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001922446), Diversified Energy Company generated $1.83B in revenue (+141.5% YoY), $341.1M in net income, and $280.0M in free cash flow against $6.17B in total assets and $2.72B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.59 (-1.06%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 15.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 51/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510051
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ · Rk D
Cash (9)Whales (8)SEC (10)Macro (9)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.1% Base Target
$20 Bull$13 Base$10 Bear
📬 FREE DEC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for DEC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (51/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY DEC SCORES 51/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (20% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.51 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
59
Grade C$14.86-3.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
56
Grade C$14.34+1.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
54
Grade C-$14.59-5.8% Next Q
Current
51
Grade D$13.74-1.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (59) → D (51)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a DEC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While DEC currently carries a cautious 51/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($14.42) and Max Pain ($14.43) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $19.84.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $DEC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “DEC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 51%NO 49%Trade / Inspect Odds →
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How DEC Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$280.0M (15.3% FCF Margin)
Revenue$1.83BGross Profit $951.2M (52%)Cost of Sales $878.0MOp Profit $535.0M (29.2%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $416.1MNet Profit$341.1M (18.6%)Tax/Other $193.9M

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow
FY23
Rev $1.95B
FY24
Rev $757.3M
FY25
Rev $1.83B
Fiscal YearRevenueGross MarginOp MarginNet ProfitFree Cash FlowROIC %
FY 2025$1.83B52%29.2%$341.1M$280.0M11.5%
FY 2024$757.3M52%-12.8%-$104.4M$168.6M-4.1%
FY 2023$1.95B52%56.9%$748.7M$291.4M11.5%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring DEC)

  • ✓Walkthrough of DEC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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DEC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -18.31%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $14.61H $14.61L $13.74C $13.74VOL 1.23M
RES: $14.79SUP: $13.52SMA50: $14.42SMA200: $14.46
$17.20$15.90$14.60$13.30$12.00RES $14.79SUP $13.52$13.742026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

DEC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 DEC Butterfly Map → + Track DEC →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-8.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +141.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on DEC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for DEC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for DEC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (DEC)

Industrials Rank #214 of 486 ⚔️ SLSR vs DEC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (DEC vs. SLSR, PSUS, CNL, HSLV)

Industry: Diversified Equities (43 Tracked Issuers)

Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Diversified Energy Company (DEC) ranks #214 by composite RQD confidence (51/100, grade D) and #241 by equity capitalization ($1.11B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DEC leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while DEC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.5% ROIC and — gross margin. DEC currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 51/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
DEC ACTIVE
Diversified Energy Company
D 51/100 — — 11.5% -4.85% $1.11B Benchmark Subject
SLSR
Solaris Resources Inc.
D 44/100 — — — +2.75% $1.09B /slsr-vs-dec →
PSUS
Pershing Square USA Ltd.
D 46/100 — — — +0.53% $983.5M /psus-vs-dec →
CNL
Collective Mining Ltd.
D 45/100 — — — -2.67% $973.8M /cnl-vs-dec →
HSLV
Highlander Silver Corp.
D- 42/100 — — — -0.95% $860.9M /hslv-vs-dec →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001922446 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Diversified Energy Company (DEC) reported GAAP revenue of $1.83B (+141.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $757.3M , and -6.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $341.1M, operating cash flow of $464.6M, and free cash flow of $280.0M (+66.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, DEC closed FY2025 with $6.17B in total assets against $2.72B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.51, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.83B $341.1M $464.6M $280.0M $6.17B $2.72B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $757.3M -$104.4M $220.7M $168.6M $3.96B $1.50B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.95B $748.7M $291.4M $291.4M — —

3. DEC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is DEC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Diversified Energy Company (NYSE: DEC) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 51/100 at a spot price of $13.74 (-4.85% 1D, market cap $1.11B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, DEC ranks #214 in composite RQD confidence.

How does DEC compare to SLSR and PSUS in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Diversified Equities), DEC carries a Roarable D (51/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.5%. By comparison, SLSR (Solaris Resources Inc.) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.09B) and PSUS (Pershing Square USA Ltd.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $983.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, DEC leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while DEC leads on capital efficiency (11.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for DEC?

Per DEC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001922446), Diversified Energy Company generated $1.83B in revenue (+141.5% YoY), $341.1M in net income, and $280.0M in free cash flow against $6.17B in total assets and $2.72B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is DEC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

DEC last traded at $13.74 (-4.85% on volume of 925,175 shares), positioning the stock -4.72% below its 50-day simple moving average ($14.42) and -4.98% below its 200-day simple moving average ($14.46). Across its 52-week range of $12.35 to $18.90, DEC sits at the 21.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.4% ($13.00 to $14.48).

Direct Sub-Reports: DEC RQD Cockpit DEC 12M Forecast DEC Earnings & Move DEC Dividends & DRIP DEC Insiders & 13F DEC Whale Options DEC Profit Sankey DEC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 51/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

DEC — Diversified Energy Company: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Diversified Energy Company (DEC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 51/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $13.74 (-4.85% 1D, market capitalization $1.11B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 11.5%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 29.2%, and free cash flow yield of 24.97%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.51, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 2.76x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Diversified Energy Company (DEC) is listed on the NYSE and classified in the Industrials sector, Diversified Equities industry,..1B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Diversified Energy Company (DEC) reported $1.83B in annual revenue (up from $757.3M in FY2024, +141.5% YoY) and $341.1M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.95B revenue, $748.7M net income) through FY2025, DEC scaled operating cash flow to $464.6M and free cash flow to $280.0M, backed by $6.17B in total assets against $2.72B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 51/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 24.97% and institutional whale pillar of 8/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $12.35 – $18.90 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh current valuation and 5.5x EV/EBITDA against 29.2% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies are — Sector correlations beyond beta of 1.0 are — Second-order bottlenecks cannot be identified from the provided data. A prospective investor should note that the absence of mapped links is a gap in the data, not evidence of the absence of dependencies.

  • Key Question #1: Can DEC sustain or expand its 29.2% operating margin and 11.5% ROIC against Diversified Equities peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.83B and free cash flow of $280.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $2.72B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is DEC's equity valuation to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

DEC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Diversified Energy Company (DEC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to DEC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

DEC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $13.74?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON DEC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on DEC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $16.75 (+16.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

A 24.97% FCF yield and 7.58% dividend yield with 11.5% ROIC signal strong reported cash generation.

Picked up a starter position in DEC in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $14.44. A 24.97% FCF yield and 7.58% dividend yield with 11.5% ROIC signal strong reported cash generation.. Trading inside a $12.35–$18.90 52-week range with 24.97% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Diversified Equities multiples expand this quarter.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — DEC's 10/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $12.42 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $14.44

A 0.51 Altman Z-Score and 2.76 Debt/Equity against $29.7M cash signal balance-sheet strain.

Careful chasing DEC at $14.44. A 0.51 Altman Z-Score and 2.76 Debt/Equity against $29.7M cash signal balance-sheet strain.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 29.2%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $12.42 on multiple compression.

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