Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$1.55 -3.12% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.54

Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $145.4M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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As of 2026-11-02, Douglas Elliman Inc. (NYSE: DOUG) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $1.55 (-3.12% 1D, market cap $145.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, DOUG ranks #729 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does DOUG compare to CMTG and AOMR in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate), DOUG carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.6x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 52.5%. By comparison, CMTG (Claros Mortgage Trust Inc.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -31.9%, cap $166.5M) and AOMR (Angel Oak Mortgage REIT Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E 3.8x, ROIC 16.5%, cap $169.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AOMR leads on earnings multiple (3.8x) while DOUG leads on capital efficiency (52.5% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for DOUG?
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Per DOUG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001878897), Douglas Elliman Inc. generated $1.03B in revenue (+3.8% YoY), $15.2M in net income, and -$17.2M in free cash flow against $444.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.54 (-0.75%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) β€’ 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 Β· D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D
025507510048
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D Β· Rk D
Cash (9)Whales (11)SEC (10)Macro (10)CEO (8)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target
$3 Bull$1 Base$1 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE DOUG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for DOUG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±10%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY DOUG SCORES 48/100 (D) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (Β±10% realized swing band)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 3/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 12 pts from alignment

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
40
Grade D$1.55-4.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
43
Grade D$1.48+7.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
45
Grade D$1.59-2.5% Next Q
Current
48
Grade D$1.55-5.6% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: D (40) β†’ D (48)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a DOUG Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While DOUG currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.64) and Max Pain ($1.63) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $3.18.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $DOUGβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œDOUG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
SEC FORM 4 Γ— 13F HEDGE FUNDS Γ— CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

DOUG Smart-Money Thermometer: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales β†’
β–² Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)β–Ό Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (DOUG)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on DOUG. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring DOUG)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of DOUG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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DOUG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -22.89%πŸ“ HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $1.59H $1.60L $1.54C $1.55VOL 480.3K
RES: $2.10SUP: $1.34SMA50: $1.64SMA200: $1.90
$2.51$2.21$1.90$1.59$1.28RES $2.10SUP $1.34$1.552026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

DOUG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-2.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on DOUG today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for DOUG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for DOUG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (DOUG)

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (DOUG vs. CMTG, AOMR, CHCI, BEEP)

Industry: Real Estate (54 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) ranks #729 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #930 by equity capitalization ($145.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AOMR leads on earnings valuation at 3.8x trailing P/E, while DOUG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 52.5% ROIC and β€” gross margin. CHCI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with DOUG at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
DOUG ACTIVE
Douglas Elliman Inc.
D 48/100 9.6x β€” 52.5% -3.12% $145.4M Benchmark Subject
CMTG
Claros Mortgage Trust Inc.
E 34/100 β€” β€” -31.9% -2.54% $166.5M /cmtg-vs-doug β†’
AOMR
Angel Oak Mortgage REIT Inc.
D 46/100 3.8x β€” 16.5% -3.57% $169.0M /aomr-vs-doug β†’
CHCI
Comstock Holding Companies Inc. (Class A)
C 63/100 11.3x β€” 24.4% -3.85% $192.1M /chci-vs-doug β†’
BEEP
Mobile Infrastructure Corporation
D- 40/100 β€” β€” -15.2% -0.39% $104.5M /beep-vs-doug β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001878897

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) reported GAAP revenue of $1.03B (+3.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $995.6M , and +8.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $15.2M, operating cash flow of -$13.9M, and free cash flow of -$17.2M (+45.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, DOUG closed FY2025 with $444.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.03B $15.2M -$13.9M -$17.2M $444.4M $0
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $995.6M -$76.3M -$26.0M -$31.5M $493.9M $32.7M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $955.6M -$42.6M -$30.4M -$30.4M β€” β€”

3. DOUG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is DOUG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Douglas Elliman Inc. (NYSE: DOUG) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $1.55 (-3.12% 1D, market cap $145.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, DOUG ranks #729 in composite RQD confidence.

How does DOUG compare to CMTG and AOMR in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate), DOUG carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.6x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 52.5%. By comparison, CMTG (Claros Mortgage Trust Inc.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -31.9%, cap $166.5M) and AOMR (Angel Oak Mortgage REIT Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E 3.8x, ROIC 16.5%, cap $169.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AOMR leads on earnings multiple (3.8x) while DOUG leads on capital efficiency (52.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for DOUG?

Per DOUG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001878897), Douglas Elliman Inc. generated $1.03B in revenue (+3.8% YoY), $15.2M in net income, and -$17.2M in free cash flow against $444.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is DOUG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

DOUG last traded at $1.55 (-3.12% on volume of 480,343 shares), positioning the stock -5.49% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.64) and -18.42% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.90). Across its 52-week range of $1.38 to $3.03, DOUG sits at the 10.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±10.0% ($1.40 to $1.70).

DOUG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

Are DOUG insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies DOUG leadership and institutional positioning as: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 48/100 (D) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

DOUG β€” Douglas Elliman Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:42:43Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

The Roarable RQD Score is 48 / D, labeled "Roarable Sell β€” Underperform / Distribution Warning," per the Roarable RQD rating. The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 9 / 20. The rating notes ROIC of 52.5% and FCF yield of -11.85%. A high ROIC alongside negative free cash flow is a mismatch an investor should examine: reported return on invested capital is strong, but cash generation is not confirming it in the period captured.
  • Whale/13F Flow: 11 / 20. Described as institutional accumulation and options positioning. Specific holder data is not available in source data (see Analyst View section).
  • Insider Conviction: 8 / 20. Described as SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. Individual transactions are not itemized in the source data.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 10 / 20. Beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity are cited. A beta of 1.0 implies market-level sensitivity to broad moves; the rating does not separate sector-specific exposure from this figure.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 10 / 20. Altman Z of 2.5, Piotroski F of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5 are cited. The Piotroski score of 3/9 is a weak reading on the score's own scale.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the rating's combined message is caution. The strongest pillar (Whale/13F Flow at 11/20) remains below half-weight, and no pillar reaches 12/20. Upside drivers the rating implicitly points to would be sustained positive free cash flow and improved Piotroski components; the valuation tradeoff is a low P/E (9.6 TTM) set against a negative FCF yield, which makes earnings quality the central question rather than headline multiple.

Business

Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) is listed on the NYSE and classified under the Financials sector, Real Estate industry, per the profile. The source data does not describe its products, customer base, or revenue model beyond the sector and industry classification. Gross margin is reported as 0%, operating margin as 4.4%, and net margin as 1.5%, per the market data section. Not available in source data: detailed description of products, customers, or revenue mechanics.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$1033.1M$45.5M$15.2MN/A$-17.2M$115.5M$0.0M
FY 2024$995.6M$-68.8M$-76.3MN/A$-31.5M$135.7M$32.7M
FY 2023$955.6M$-64.5M$-42.6MN/A$-30.4MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, FY 2025 is the only period with positive operating and net income, with net income of $15.2M against revenue of $1033.1M. Free cash flow was negative in all three reported periods. Cash declined from $135.7M to $115.5M between FY 2024 and FY 2025, while debt went from $32.7M to $0.0M. The Roarable RQD rating cites an Altman Z-Score of 2.5, a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.5. Not available in source data: FY 2025 EPS value.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news and catalysts section, the feed contains six items, all tagged to DOUG, with light signals of YELLOW on five and GREEN on one. The headlines cover an initiation by Citizens with a Market Perform rating, a MarketBeat report on analyst pickup at Citizens JMP, a Simply Wall St penny-stock mention, a TradingKey loser list, a MarketBeat projection of earnings on Wednesday, and a TradingKey gainer list. The GREEN-tagged item is the gainer listing. Risk watch items include the day's -3.12% price change and the stock's position near the low end of its 52-week range. The butterfly supply chain graph reports no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations beyond the beta figure, and second-order bottlenecks are not available in source data. Not available in source data: upstream/downstream dependency mapping.

Open Questions

  • What is the source of the Roarable RQD's positive ROIC reading (52.5%) given negative free cash flow in all three reported periods?
  • What are the FY 2025 EPS and the FY 2023 cash and debt figures, which are marked N/A or missing?
  • What are the individual SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR transactions underlying the insider conviction pillar?
  • What is the company's revenue composition, since the source data does not describe its business lines?
  • What is the EV/EBITDA figure, and what drove the 4.4% operating margin versus the 9.6x P/E?

DOUG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to DOUG Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

DOUG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $1.55?

πŸ‚ 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON DOUG 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on DOUG:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk βš–οΈ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $1.67 (+7.7%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is DOUG (D β€’ RQD 48/100) a Buy at $1.55?

Welcome to the DOUG (Douglas Elliman Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 48/100 (Roarable Sell β€” Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Real Estate. Bulls point to capital efficiency (52.5% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.21 (-21.9%)
Spot @ $1.55

Pump the brakes on DOUG β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on DOUG, but look at what you are paying: 9.6x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Douglas Elliman Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

AL AlphaFlow_Cap Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $1.78 (+14.8%)
Spot @ $1.55

DOUG cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on DOUG, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Real Estate and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $1.55 (52-wk range $1.38 - $3.03), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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