MARKET WIREInvesting.com • 21h ago
Citizens initiates Douglas Elliman stock with Market Perform ratingInvesting.com report covering Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Why DOUG Stock surged +3.23% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$1.60 +3.23% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.61
Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 35/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT
Cap $140.9M
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Is DOUG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Douglas Elliman Inc. (NYSE: DOUG) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $1.60 (+3.23% 1D, market cap $140.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 8/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, DOUG ranks #983 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does DOUG compare to CMTG and AOMR in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate), DOUG carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 52.5%. By comparison, CMTG (Claros Mortgage Trust Inc.) holds a E grade (21/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -31.9%, cap $162.2M) and AOMR (Angel Oak Mortgage REIT Inc.) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E 3.8x, ROIC 16.5%, cap $163.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AOMR leads on earnings multiple (3.8x) while DOUG leads on capital efficiency (52.5% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for DOUG?
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Per DOUG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001878897), Douglas Elliman Inc. generated $1.03B in revenue (+3.8% YoY), $15.2M in net income, and -$17.2M in free cash flow against $444.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.61 (+0.39%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk E
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.6% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for DOUG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (35/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY DOUG SCORES 35/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (29% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (26% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (49.1) create a -16 pt regime headwind
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$1.52-7.9% Next Q
27
Q2 (-2Q)Grade E$1.40+14.3% Next Q
30
Q3 (-1Q)Grade E$1.60+0% Next Q
32
CurrentGrade D-$1.60-8.5% Hist 90D α
35
Trajectory: E (27) → D- (35)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a DOUG Turnaround Squeeze
While DOUG currently carries a cautious 35/100 (D-) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.63) and Max Pain ($1.68) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $3.18.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $DOUG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “DOUG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why DOUG Stock surged +3.23% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) surged +3.23% to $1.60, trading at 13% of its 52-week range ($1.38 – $3.03). Stretched risk/reward at 10x P/E (53% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 13% of its 52-week range ($1.38 – $3.03) with RSI-14 at 49.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±9.8% around $1.60 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live DOUG Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREMarketBeat • 1d ago
Douglas Elliman (NYSE:DOUG) Stock Picked Up by Analysts at Citizens JmpMarketBeat report covering Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
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Quantum-Si And 2 Other Promising Penny StocksSimply Wall St report covering Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIRETradingKey • 1d ago
Top U.S. Stock Losers: Biggest Price DeclinesTradingKey report covering Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREMarketBeat • 1d ago
Douglas Elliman (DOUG) Projected to Post Earnings on WednesdayMarketBeat report covering Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
CATALYSTTradingKey • 1d ago
Top U.S. Stock Gainers: Biggest Price IncreasesTradingKey report covering Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREhttps://www.siam.in/ • 1d ago
NVE Corporation (NVEC) Ticks Up 0.48% to $110.74, Holding Above Key Support - Money Flowhttps://www.siam.in/ report covering Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
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Complete U.S. Stocks List: Prices, Performance and Key DataTradingKey report covering Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring DOUG)
- ✓Walkthrough of DOUG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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DOUG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -15.79%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $1.60H $1.60L $1.55C $1.60VOL 480.3K
RES: $2.10SUP: $1.34SMA50: $1.63SMA200: $1.89
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
DOUG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-2.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +3.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on DOUG today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for DOUG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for DOUG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (DOUG)
Financials Rank #983 of 1097
⚔️ CMTG vs DOUG Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (DOUG vs. CMTG, AOMR, CHCI, BEEP)
Industry: Real Estate (54 Tracked Issuers)Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) ranks #983 by composite RQD confidence (35/100, grade D-) and #932 by equity capitalization ($140.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AOMR leads on earnings valuation at 3.8x trailing P/E, while DOUG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 52.5% ROIC and — gross margin. CHCI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 57/100 (D+) compared with DOUG at 35/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOUG
ACTIVE
Douglas Elliman Inc. | D- | 35/100 | 9.6x | — | 52.5% | +3.23% | $140.9M | Benchmark Subject |
| CMTG Claros Mortgage Trust Inc. | E | 21/100 | — | — | -31.9% | -0.87% | $162.2M | /cmtg-vs-doug → |
| AOMR Angel Oak Mortgage REIT Inc. | D- | 37/100 | 3.8x | — | 16.5% | +1.85% | $163.0M | /aomr-vs-doug → |
| CHCI Comstock Holding Companies Inc. (Class A) | D+ | 57/100 | 11.3x | — | 24.4% | +2.56% | $184.7M | /chci-vs-doug → |
| BEEP Mobile Infrastructure Corporation | D- | 38/100 | — | — | -15.2% | -4.76% | $104.1M | /beep-vs-doug → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001878897 ↗In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) reported GAAP revenue of $1.03B (+3.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $995.6M , and +8.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $15.2M, operating cash flow of -$13.9M, and free cash flow of -$17.2M (+45.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, DOUG closed FY2025 with $444.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $1.03B | $15.2M | -$13.9M | -$17.2M | $444.4M | $0 |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $995.6M | -$76.3M | -$26.0M | -$31.5M | $493.9M | $32.7M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $955.6M | -$42.6M | -$30.4M | -$30.4M | — | — |
3. DOUG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs DOUG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-03, Douglas Elliman Inc. (NYSE: DOUG) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $1.60 (+3.23% 1D, market cap $140.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 8/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, DOUG ranks #983 in composite RQD confidence.
How does DOUG compare to CMTG and AOMR in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Real Estate), DOUG carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 52.5%. By comparison, CMTG (Claros Mortgage Trust Inc.) holds a E grade (21/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -31.9%, cap $162.2M) and AOMR (Angel Oak Mortgage REIT Inc.) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E 3.8x, ROIC 16.5%, cap $163.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AOMR leads on earnings multiple (3.8x) while DOUG leads on capital efficiency (52.5% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for DOUG?
Per DOUG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001878897), Douglas Elliman Inc. generated $1.03B in revenue (+3.8% YoY), $15.2M in net income, and -$17.2M in free cash flow against $444.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is DOUG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
DOUG last traded at $1.60 (+3.23% on volume of 497,573 shares), positioning the stock -1.84% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.63) and -15.34% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.89). Across its 52-week range of $1.38 to $3.03, DOUG sits at the 13.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.8% ($1.44 to $1.76).
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 35/100 (D-)
✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED
DOUG — Douglas Elliman Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31
1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 35/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $1.60 (+3.23% 1D, market capitalization $140.9M).
- Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 52.5%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 4.4%, and free cash flow yield of -11.85%.
- Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (8/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
- Macro Regime Fit (3/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.
2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory
Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) is listed on the NYSE and classified under the Financials sector, Real Estate industry,. Gross margin is reported as 0%, operating margin as 4.4%, and net margin as 1.5%. —: detailed description of products, customers, or revenue mechanics.
In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) reported $1.03B in annual revenue (up from $995.6M in FY2024, +3.8% YoY) and $15.2M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($955.6M revenue, -$42.6M net income) through FY2025, DOUG scaled operating cash flow to -$13.9M and free cash flow to -$17.2M, backed by $444.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt.
3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff
- 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 35/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -11.85% and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $1.38 – $3.03 52-week range.
- 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 9.6x trailing P/E against 4.4% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.
4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch
—: upstream/downstream dependency mapping.
- Key Question #1: Can DOUG sustain or expand its 4.4% operating margin and 52.5% ROIC against Real Estate peers over the next 4 quarters?
- Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.03B and free cash flow of -$17.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
- Key Question #3: How sensitive is DOUG's 8.9x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?
DOUG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
🟡 MARKET WIRE Investing.com • 21h ago
Citizens initiates Douglas Elliman stock with Market Perform rating Investing.com report covering Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago
Douglas Elliman (NYSE:DOUG) Stock Picked Up by Analysts at Citizens Jmp MarketBeat report covering Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago
Quantum-Si And 2 Other Promising Penny Stocks Simply Wall St report covering Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingKey • 1d ago
Top U.S. Stock Losers: Biggest Price Declines TradingKey report covering Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago
Douglas Elliman (DOUG) Projected to Post Earnings on Wednesday MarketBeat report covering Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟢 CATALYST TradingKey • 1d ago
Top U.S. Stock Gainers: Biggest Price Increases TradingKey report covering Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE https://www.siam.in/ • 1d ago
NVE Corporation (NVEC) Ticks Up 0.48% to $110.74, Holding Above Key Support - Money Flow https://www.siam.in/ report covering Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingKey • 1d ago
Complete U.S. Stocks List: Prices, Performance and Key Data TradingKey report covering Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE
3 Active Posts & Replies
DOUG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $1.60?
🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON DOUG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH
🎯 Target: $2.00 (+29.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate FY 2025 turned profitable with $15.2M net income on $1.03B revenue while debt fell to $0.0M from $32.7M.
The street is overcomplicating Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG). FY 2025 turned profitable with $15.2M net income on $1.03B revenue while debt fell to $0.0M from $32.7M.. With an RQD score of 35/100 (D-) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 10/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $1.67.
SectorRotator 🐂 BULL
@RedlineAuditor Fair point on 9.6x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Real Estate. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.
RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH
🎯 Target: $1.26 (-18.7%)
Spot @ $1.55 Free cash flow was negative in every reported period, reaching -$17.2M in FY 2025, against a Roarable RQD score of 48 / D.
Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short DOUG above $1.55. Free cash flow was negative in every reported period, reaching -$17.2M in FY 2025, against a Roarable RQD score of 48 / D.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20) and FCF yield (-11.85%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $3.03.