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GrafTech International Ltd. (EAF) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$11.33 -4.79% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.21

GrafTech International Ltd. (EAF) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 42/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $320.1M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on EAF Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is EAF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, GrafTech International Ltd. (NYSE: EAF) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $11.33 (-4.79% 1D, market cap $320.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, EAF ranks #171 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does EAF compare to NPWR and BLDP in the Energy sector?
β–Ό

Within the Energy sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), EAF carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of -3.1%, and ROIC of -7.3%. By comparison, NPWR (NET Power Inc. (Class A)) holds a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $187.5M) and BLDP (Ballard Power Systems Inc.) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC β€”, cap $551.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, EAF leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while EAF leads on capital efficiency (-7.3% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EAF?
β–Ό

Per EAF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000931148), GrafTech International Ltd. generated $504.1M in revenue (-6.4% YoY), -$219.8M in net income, and -$120.5M in free cash flow against $1.03B in total assets and $1.09B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.21 (-1.05%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) β€’ 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (42/100 Β· D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D-
025507510042
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- Β· Rk D
Cash (7)Whales (14)SEC (8)Macro (10)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.2% Base Target
$21 Bull$11 Base$8 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE EAF RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for EAF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (42/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY EAF SCORES 42/100 (D-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (33% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (Β±12.5% realized swing band)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime Γ— Technicals: 43% of 52W Range β€’ RSI-14 at 67.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
34
Grade E$8.21-15.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
37
Grade E$6.95+70.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
39
Grade E$11.83-4.2% Next Q
Current
42
Grade D-$11.33-7% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: E (34) β†’ D- (42)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a EAF Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While EAF currently carries a cautious 42/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($8.56) and Max Pain ($11.90) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $20.71.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $EAFβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œEAF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 42%NO 58%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±12.5%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (EAF)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for EAF.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring EAF)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of EAF's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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EAF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +22.75%β–² ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $12.05H $12.05L $11.33C $11.33VOL 389.2K
RES: $12.43SUP: $6.25SMA50: $8.56SMA200: $8.34
$12.90$10.79$8.67$6.56$4.44RES $12.43SUP $6.25$11.332026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

EAF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ EAF Butterfly Map β†’ + Track EAF β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -6.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on EAF today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for EAF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for EAF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (EAF)

Energy Rank #171 of 211 βš”οΈ NPWR vs EAF Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (EAF vs. NPWR, BLDP, FCEL, EROC)

Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, GrafTech International Ltd. (EAF) ranks #171 by composite RQD confidence (42/100, grade D-) and #164 by equity capitalization ($320.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, EAF leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while EAF leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -7.3% ROIC and -3.1% gross margin. BLDP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 44/100 (D) compared with EAF at 42/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
EAF ACTIVE
GrafTech International Ltd.
D- 42/100 β€” -3.1% -7.3% -4.79% $320.1M Benchmark Subject
NPWR
NET Power Inc. (Class A)
E 33/100 β€” β€” -35.0% +1.94% $187.5M /npwr-vs-eaf β†’
BLDP
Ballard Power Systems Inc.
D 44/100 β€” β€” β€” -4.46% $551.2M /bldp-vs-eaf β†’
FCEL
FuelCell Energy Inc.
E 20/100 β€” -16.7% -35.0% -6.42% $897.1M /fcel-vs-eaf β†’
EROC
ERock Inc. (Class A)
D- 37/100 β€” β€” β€” -5.39% $1.83B /eroc-vs-eaf β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0000931148 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), GrafTech International Ltd. (EAF) reported GAAP revenue of $504.1M (-6.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $538.8M , and -18.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$219.8M, operating cash flow of -$81.6M, and free cash flow of -$120.5M (-62.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, EAF closed FY2025 with $1.03B in total assets against $1.09B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $504.1M -$219.8M -$81.6M -$120.5M $1.03B $1.09B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $538.8M -$131.2M -$40.1M -$74.4M $1.22B $1.09B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $620.5M -$255.3M $76.6M $76.6M β€” β€”

3. EAF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is EAF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, GrafTech International Ltd. (NYSE: EAF) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $11.33 (-4.79% 1D, market cap $320.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, EAF ranks #171 in composite RQD confidence.

How does EAF compare to NPWR and BLDP in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), EAF carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of -3.1%, and ROIC of -7.3%. By comparison, NPWR (NET Power Inc. (Class A)) holds a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $187.5M) and BLDP (Ballard Power Systems Inc.) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC β€”, cap $551.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, EAF leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while EAF leads on capital efficiency (-7.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EAF?

Per EAF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000931148), GrafTech International Ltd. generated $504.1M in revenue (-6.4% YoY), -$219.8M in net income, and -$120.5M in free cash flow against $1.03B in total assets and $1.09B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is EAF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

EAF last traded at $11.33 (-4.79% on volume of 554,257 shares), positioning the stock +32.36% above its 50-day simple moving average ($8.56) and +35.85% above its 200-day simple moving average ($8.34). Across its 52-week range of $4.92 to $19.72, EAF sits at the 43.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 67.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±12.5% ($9.91 to $12.75).

Direct Sub-Reports: EAF RQD Cockpit EAF 12M Forecast EAF Earnings & Move EAF Dividends & DRIP EAF Insiders & 13F EAF Whale Options EAF Profit Sankey EAF News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 42/100 (D-) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

EAF β€” GrafTech International Ltd.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

GrafTech International Ltd. (EAF) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 42/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $11.33 (-4.79% 1D, market capitalization $320.1M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (7/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -7.3%, gross margin of -3.1%, operating margin of -15.3%, and free cash flow yield of β€”.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (14/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. Is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Energy sector and the Industrial Machinery/Components industry, with a market capitalization of $0.3B. β€” regarding specific customers, product lines, or revenue mechanics beyond the sector and industry classification.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), GrafTech International Ltd. (EAF) reported $504.1M in annual revenue (up from $538.8M in FY2024, -6.4% YoY) and -$219.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($620.5M revenue, -$255.3M net income) through FY2025, EAF scaled operating cash flow to -$81.6M and free cash flow to -$120.5M, backed by $1.03B in total assets against $1.09B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D- β€’ RQD 42/100): Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of β€” and institutional whale pillar of 14/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 7/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 14/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $4.92 – $19.72 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -15.3% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

No upstream or downstream links are mapped and no proprietary signals are recorded, so no supply-chain dependency or sector correlation can be specified from source data. Investors should watch the cash flow and outlook concerns flagged in the news feed as the primary second-order channel, since persistent negative FCF (-$120.5M in FY 2025) combined with reported debt of $1.09B bears on refinancing and balance sheet capacity.

  • Key Question #1: Can EAF sustain or expand its -15.3% operating margin and -7.3% ROIC against Industrial Machinery/Components peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $504.1M and free cash flow of -$120.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.09B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is EAF's equity valuation to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

EAF Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for GrafTech International Ltd. (EAF) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to EAF Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

EAF Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $11.33?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON EAF 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on EAF:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Institutional Buy-Side πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $14.88 (+25.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Institutional accumulation and options positioning drive the strongest RQD pillar at 14 of 20, and recent headlines cite pricing-turnar

Don't sleep on EAF's setup in Energy. Institutional accumulation and options positioning drive the strongest RQD pillar at 14 of 20, and recent headlines cite pricing-turnaround and better-than-expected EBITDA signals.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (42/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

SectorRotator πŸ‚ BULL

@MultipleCompression Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Industrial Machinery/Components. If gross margin (-3.1%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $9.64 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $11.90

Negative ROIC of -7.3%, zero FCF yield, and a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 leave the cash engine and balance sheet scoring weakly in the RQ

I respect the product at GrafTech International Ltd., but the stock at $11.90 is a different story. Negative ROIC of -7.3%, zero FCF yield, and a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 leave the cash engine and balance sheet scoring weakly in the RQD rating.. FCF yield is 0.0% and RQD sits at 42/100 (D-) β€” why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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