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Why EGY Stock dropped -3.28% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$5.61 -3.28% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.57

VAALCO Energy Inc. (EGY) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $610.1M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is EGY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, VAALCO Energy Inc. (NYSE: EGY) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $5.61 (-3.28% 1D, market cap $610.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, EGY ranks #153 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does EGY compare to WTI and GPRK in the Energy sector?
▼

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), EGY carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -4.2%. By comparison, WTI (W&T Offshore Inc.) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $556.1M) and GPRK (Geopark Ltd) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $673.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GRNT leads on earnings multiple (31.3x) while GRNT leads on capital efficiency (3.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EGY?
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Per EGY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000894627), VAALCO Energy Inc. generated $359.3M in revenue (-25.0% YoY), -$41.4M in net income, and $212.7M in free cash flow against $913.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.57 (-0.78%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 59.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510046
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D · Rk D-
Cash (9)Whales (15)SEC (5)Macro (12)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.3% Base Target
$7 Bull$5 Base$4 Bear
📬 FREE EGY RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for EGY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY EGY SCORES 46/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (33% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 67% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 39.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
54
Grade C-$6.06+3.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
51
Grade C-$6.25+2.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
49
Grade D$6.43-12.8% Next Q
Current
46
Grade D$5.61-6.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (54) → D (46)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a EGY Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While EGY currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.07) and Max Pain ($5.89) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $7.06.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $EGY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “EGY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 46%NO 54%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why EGY Stock dropped -3.28% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

VAALCO Energy Inc. (EGY) dropped -3.28% to $5.61, trading at 67% of its 52-week range ($3.37 – $6.72). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-4% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 67% of its 52-week range ($3.37 – $6.72) with RSI-14 at 39.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±7% around $5.61 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $212.7M annual free cash flow.
Live EGY Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring EGY)

  • ✓Walkthrough of EGY's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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EGY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.96%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-04O $6.44H $6.44L $5.61C $5.61VOL 2.23M
RES: $7.12SUP: $5.94SMA50: $6.07SMA200: $5.67
$6.82$6.17$5.53$4.88$4.24RES $7.12SUP $5.94$5.612026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

EGY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 EGY Butterfly Map → + Track EGY →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -25.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on EGY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for EGY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for EGY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (EGY)

Energy Rank #153 of 211 ⚔️ WTI vs EGY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (EGY vs. WTI, GPRK, GRNT, OBE)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, VAALCO Energy Inc. (EGY) ranks #153 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #148 by equity capitalization ($610.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GRNT leads on earnings valuation at 31.3x trailing P/E, while GRNT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 3.8% ROIC and — gross margin. WTI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 62/100 (C) compared with EGY at 46/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
EGY ACTIVE
VAALCO Energy Inc.
D 46/100 — — -4.2% -3.28% $610.1M Benchmark Subject
WTI
W&T Offshore Inc.
C 62/100 — — -35.0% -1.39% $556.1M /wti-vs-egy →
GPRK
Geopark Ltd
D+ 55/100 — — — -0.48% $673.6M /gprk-vs-egy →
GRNT
Granite Ridge Resources Inc.
C- 60/100 31.3x — 3.8% -2.48% $691.2M /grnt-vs-egy →
OBE
Obsidian Energy Ltd.
C- 60/100 — — — +0.77% $691.9M /obe-vs-egy →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000894627 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), VAALCO Energy Inc. (EGY) reported GAAP revenue of $359.3M (-25.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $479.0M , and -21.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$41.4M, operating cash flow of $212.7M, and free cash flow of $212.7M (+87.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, EGY closed FY2025 with $913.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.31, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $359.3M -$41.4M $212.7M $212.7M $913.4M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $479.0M $58.5M $113.7M $113.7M $955.0M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $455.1M $60.4M $223.6M $223.6M — —

3. EGY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is EGY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, VAALCO Energy Inc. (NYSE: EGY) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $5.61 (-3.28% 1D, market cap $610.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, EGY ranks #153 in composite RQD confidence.

How does EGY compare to WTI and GPRK in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), EGY carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -4.2%. By comparison, WTI (W&T Offshore Inc.) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $556.1M) and GPRK (Geopark Ltd) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $673.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GRNT leads on earnings multiple (31.3x) while GRNT leads on capital efficiency (3.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EGY?

Per EGY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000894627), VAALCO Energy Inc. generated $359.3M in revenue (-25.0% YoY), -$41.4M in net income, and $212.7M in free cash flow against $913.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is EGY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

EGY last traded at $5.61 (-3.28% on volume of 1,091,983 shares), positioning the stock -7.58% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.07) and -1.06% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.67). Across its 52-week range of $3.37 to $6.72, EGY sits at the 66.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 39.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.0% ($5.22 to $6.00).

Direct Sub-Reports: EGY RQD Cockpit EGY 12M Forecast EGY Earnings & Move EGY Dividends & DRIP EGY Insiders & 13F EGY Whale Options EGY Profit Sankey EGY News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 46/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

EGY — VAALCO Energy Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

VAALCO Energy Inc. (EGY) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 46/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $5.61 (-3.28% 1D, market capitalization $610.1M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -4.2%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -5.7%, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (15/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (5/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.31, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Energy sector, Oil & Gas Production industry. The company's market capitalization is listed at $0.7B in the profile.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), VAALCO Energy Inc. (EGY) reported $359.3M in annual revenue (up from $479.0M in FY2024, -25.0% YoY) and -$41.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($455.1M revenue, $60.4M net income) through FY2025, EGY scaled operating cash flow to $212.7M and free cash flow to $212.7M, backed by $913.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 46/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 15/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 15/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $3.37 – $6.72 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -5.7% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Oil & Gas Production (Energy), EGY carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can EGY sustain or expand its -5.7% operating margin and -4.2% ROIC against Oil & Gas Production peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $359.3M and free cash flow of $212.7M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is EGY's equity valuation to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

EGY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for VAALCO Energy Inc. (EGY) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to EGY Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

EGY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $5.61?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON EGY 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on EGY:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $7.60 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Whale 13F Flow pillar scores 15 of 20, the strongest pillar, indicating supportive institutional accumulation and options positioning.

Here is why I am bullish on EGY here at $6.44: Whale 13F Flow pillar scores 15 of 20, the strongest pillar, indicating supportive institutional accumulation and options positioning.. Compare EGY's -5.7% operating margin and -4.2% ROIC against the rest of Oil & Gas Production. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $6.12 are getting bought.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@TapeReader_Pro Agree on the RQD 46/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $6.44 and keeping dry powder in case we test $5.99.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $5.41 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $6.44

ROIC of -4.2%, 0% FCF yield, and an Altman Z-Score of 1.31 point to weak cash generation and balance-sheet strain.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short EGY above $6.44. ROIC of -4.2%, 0% FCF yield, and an Altman Z-Score of 1.31 point to weak cash generation and balance-sheet strain.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20) and FCF yield (0.0%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $6.72.

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