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Stock Ratings / Energy / GRNT
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Granite Ridge Resources Inc. (GRNT) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$5.11 -2.48% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.08

Granite Ridge Resources Inc. (GRNT) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 60/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $691.2M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on GRNT Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is GRNT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Granite Ridge Resources Inc. (NYSE: GRNT) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $5.11 (-2.48% 1D, market cap $691.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, GRNT ranks #94 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does GRNT compare to OBE and GPRK in the Energy sector?
▼

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), GRNT carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 31.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.8%. By comparison, OBE (Obsidian Energy Ltd.) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $691.9M) and GPRK (Geopark Ltd) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $673.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VTS leads on earnings multiple (30.5x) while WHK leads on capital efficiency (7.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GRNT?
▼

Per GRNT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001928446), Granite Ridge Resources Inc. generated $450.3M in revenue (+18.5% YoY), $24.4M in net income, and $296.4M in free cash flow against $1.17B in total assets and $367.8M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.08 (-0.64%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 65.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.5% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
025507510060
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C- · Rk C-
Cash (8)Whales (14)SEC (12)Macro (12)CEO (14)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1% Base Target
$6 Bull$5 Base$4 Bear
📬 FREE GRNT RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GRNT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (60/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY GRNT SCORES 60/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±8% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 10.3% operating margin leave 12 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
52
Grade C-$4.94+14.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
55
Grade C$5.67+2.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
57
Grade C$5.81-12% Next Q
Current
60
Grade C-$5.11+0.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (52) → C- (60)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the GRNT Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 60/100 (C-) score, GRNT faces multiple-compression risk if 31.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($5.07) or 200D SMA ($5.09) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($5.16) toward Bear Floor ($4.02).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GRNT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “GRNT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 60%NO 40%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
45.730 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)
1.34>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
8 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE47% OF RANGE
L: $4$5.11H: $6
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 8 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● BUYING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Hedge funds and options traders are leaning bullish, showing strong institutional appetite.

Factor Grade: B-RQD 28 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 24 / 40
MULTI-MODEL QUANT PANEL DELIBERATION

Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground) on GRNT

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (40)

3.8% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (60)

Altman-Z 1.34 and Piotroski 8/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BULLISH (67)

28/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 12/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like GRNT
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (GRNT Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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GRNT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -16.37%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-04O $5.73H $5.73L $5.11C $5.11VOL 1.37M
RES: $6.07SUP: $4.24SMA50: $5.07SMA200: $5.09
$6.27$5.72$5.18$4.63$4.08RES $6.07SUP $4.24$5.112026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GRNT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GRNT Butterfly Map → + Track GRNT →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
24.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +18.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GRNT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GRNT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GRNT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GRNT)

Energy Rank #94 of 211 ⚔️ OBE vs GRNT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (GRNT vs. OBE, GPRK, VTS, WHK)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Granite Ridge Resources Inc. (GRNT) ranks #94 by composite RQD confidence (60/100, grade C-) and #146 by equity capitalization ($691.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VTS leads on earnings valuation at 30.5x trailing P/E, while WHK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.4% ROIC and — gross margin. GRNT currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 60/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
GRNT ACTIVE
Granite Ridge Resources Inc.
C- 60/100 31.3x — 3.8% -2.48% $691.2M Benchmark Subject
OBE
Obsidian Energy Ltd.
C- 60/100 — — — +0.77% $691.9M /obe-vs-grnt →
GPRK
Geopark Ltd
D+ 55/100 — — — -0.48% $673.6M /gprk-vs-grnt →
VTS
Vitesse Energy Inc.
C- 60/100 30.5x — 2.2% -10.38% $725.9M /vts-vs-grnt →
WHK
WhiteHawk Minerals Corp (Class A)
D 51/100 — — 7.4% -0.16% $762.9M /whk-vs-grnt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001928446 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Granite Ridge Resources Inc. (GRNT) reported GAAP revenue of $450.3M (+18.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $380.0M , and +14.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $24.4M, operating cash flow of $296.4M, and free cash flow of $296.4M (+7.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, GRNT closed FY2025 with $1.17B in total assets against $367.8M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.34, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $450.3M $24.4M $296.4M $296.4M $1.17B $367.8M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $380.0M $18.8M $275.7M $275.7M $1.04B $205.0M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $394.1M $81.1M $302.9M $302.9M — —

3. GRNT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GRNT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Granite Ridge Resources Inc. (NYSE: GRNT) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $5.11 (-2.48% 1D, market cap $691.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, GRNT ranks #94 in composite RQD confidence.

How does GRNT compare to OBE and GPRK in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), GRNT carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 31.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.8%. By comparison, OBE (Obsidian Energy Ltd.) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $691.9M) and GPRK (Geopark Ltd) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $673.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VTS leads on earnings multiple (30.5x) while WHK leads on capital efficiency (7.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GRNT?

Per GRNT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001928446), Granite Ridge Resources Inc. generated $450.3M in revenue (+18.5% YoY), $24.4M in net income, and $296.4M in free cash flow against $1.17B in total assets and $367.8M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is GRNT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GRNT last traded at $5.11 (-2.48% on volume of 1,711,284 shares), positioning the stock +0.79% above its 50-day simple moving average ($5.07) and +0.39% above its 200-day simple moving average ($5.09). Across its 52-week range of $4.18 to $6.14, GRNT sits at the 47.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.0% ($4.70 to $5.52).

Direct Sub-Reports: GRNT RQD Cockpit GRNT 12M Forecast GRNT Earnings & Move GRNT Dividends & DRIP GRNT Insiders & 13F GRNT Whale Options GRNT Profit Sankey GRNT News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 60/100 (C-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

GRNT — Granite Ridge Resources Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Granite Ridge Resources Inc. (GRNT) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 60/100, corresponding to a C- letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $5.11 (-2.48% 1D, market capitalization $691.2M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 3.8%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 10.3%, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (14/20) + Insider Conviction (14/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.34, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.61x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Granite Ridge Resources Inc. (GRNT) is a NYSE-listed operating company in the Oil & Gas Production industry (Energy sector) with an equity market capitalization of $755.8M. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 10.3%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 3.8% (free cash flow yield of 0%). Within the Oil & Gas Production peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Granite Ridge Resources Inc. (GRNT) reported $450.3M in annual revenue (up from $380.0M in FY2024, +18.5% YoY) and $24.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($394.1M revenue, $81.1M net income) through FY2025, GRNT scaled operating cash flow to $296.4M and free cash flow to $296.4M, backed by $1.17B in total assets against $367.8M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C- • RQD 60/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 14/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 14/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $4.18 – $6.14 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Investors must weigh 31.3x trailing P/E and 24.4x EV/EBITDA against 10.3% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Oil & Gas Production (Energy), GRNT carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can GRNT sustain or expand its 10.3% operating margin and 3.8% ROIC against Oil & Gas Production peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $450.3M and free cash flow of $296.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $367.8M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is GRNT's 26.3x forward P/E multiple to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

GRNT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Granite Ridge Resources Inc. (GRNT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to GRNT Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

GRNT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $5.11?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON GRNT 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on GRNT:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $7.16 (+25.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Positive news momentum, a green catalyst headline, and a 12/20 forensic balance sheet with Piotroski 8/9 support a constructive case de

Don't sleep on GRNT's setup in Energy. Positive news momentum, a green catalyst headline, and a 12/20 forensic balance sheet with Piotroski 8/9 support a constructive case despite weak cash returns.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (60/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@ForensicBear Fair point on 31.3x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Oil & Gas Production. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $4.70 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $5.73

A 0% FCF yield, 3.8% ROIC, and an Altman Z of 1.34 leave the stock with thin cash generation and elevated valuation multiples.

Fading this rally in GRNT at $5.73. A 0% FCF yield, 3.8% ROIC, and an Altman Z of 1.34 leave the stock with thin cash generation and elevated valuation multiples.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $5.73 (52-wk range $4.18–$6.14), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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