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Stock Ratings / Financials / FGBI / earnings
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First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. (FGBI) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±8.4% Move

$10.27 +7.09% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.38

First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. (FGBI) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 39/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $158.6M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FGBI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: FGBI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $10.27 (+7.09% 1D, market cap $158.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, FGBI ranks #928 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FGBI compare to LSBK and MGYR in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Savings Institutions), FGBI carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -16.1%. By comparison, LSBK (Lake Shore Bancorp Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 20.6x, ROIC 5.1%, cap $146.8M) and MGYR (Magyar Bancorp Inc.) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 13.4x, ROIC 8.0%, cap $144.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MGYR leads on earnings multiple (13.4x) while MGYR leads on capital efficiency (8.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FGBI?
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Per FGBI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001408534), First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. generated $129.4M in revenue (-92.2% YoY), -$56.0M in net income, and -$10.0M in free cash flow against $4.08B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.38 (+1.09%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (39/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510039
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E · Rk D
Cash (4)Whales (13)SEC (10)Macro (9)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.6% Base Target
$12 Bull$9 Base$7 Bear
📬 FREE FGBI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FGBI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (39/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY FGBI SCORES 39/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (33% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±8.4% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 1/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
31
Grade E$8.09+2.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
34
Grade E$8.29+7.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
36
Grade E$8.89+15.5% Next Q
Current
39
Grade D-$10.27-7.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (31) → D- (39)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a FGBI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While FGBI currently carries a cautious 39/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($8.45) and Max Pain ($10.78) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $11.57.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FGBI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “FGBI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 39%NO 61%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±8.4% Swing Band

±$0.86 Expected Swing
$9.41 (-8.4%)Spot $10.27$11.13 (+8.4%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

FGBI Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 39/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (39/100)Model Risk Weight (61/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$129.4M-$56.0M-$10.0M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$1.67B$12.4M$30.7M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$82.5M$9.2M$21.7M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FGBI)

  • ✓Walkthrough of FGBI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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FGBI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +14.11%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $9.77H $10.27L $9.59C $10.27VOL 35.1K
RES: $10.88SUP: $7.26SMA50: $8.45SMA200: $9.04
$11.26$10.27$9.29$8.30$7.31RES $10.88SUP $7.26$10.272026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FGBI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FGBI Butterfly Map → + Track FGBI →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -92.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FGBI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FGBI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FGBI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FGBI)

Financials Rank #928 of 1097 ⚔️ LSBK vs FGBI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FGBI vs. LSBK, MGYR, BVFL, FNWD)

Industry: Savings Institutions (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. (FGBI) ranks #928 by composite RQD confidence (39/100, grade D-) and #920 by equity capitalization ($158.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MGYR leads on earnings valuation at 13.4x trailing P/E, while MGYR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 8.0% ROIC and — gross margin. MGYR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with FGBI at 39/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
FGBI ACTIVE
First Guaranty Bancshares Inc.
D- 39/100 — — -16.1% +7.09% $158.6M Benchmark Subject
LSBK
Lake Shore Bancorp Inc.
C+ 67/100 20.6x — 5.1% +0.81% $146.8M /lsbk-vs-fgbi →
MGYR
Magyar Bancorp Inc.
B 73/100 13.4x — 8.0% +1.17% $144.0M /mgyr-vs-fgbi →
BVFL
BV Financial Inc.
C+ 67/100 14.0x — 7.3% +0.78% $185.5M /bvfl-vs-fgbi →
FNWD
Finward Bancorp
C 65/100 23.5x — 4.6% +2.56% $187.7M /fnwd-vs-fgbi →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001408534 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. (FGBI) reported GAAP revenue of $129.4M (-92.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.67B , and +56.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$56.0M, operating cash flow of -$8.3M, and free cash flow of -$10.0M (-132.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, FGBI closed FY2025 with $4.08B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $129.4M -$56.0M -$8.3M -$10.0M $4.08B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.67B $12.4M $33.7M $30.7M $3.97B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $82.5M $9.2M $21.7M $21.7M — —

3. FGBI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FGBI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: FGBI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $10.27 (+7.09% 1D, market cap $158.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, FGBI ranks #928 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FGBI compare to LSBK and MGYR in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Savings Institutions), FGBI carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -16.1%. By comparison, LSBK (Lake Shore Bancorp Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 20.6x, ROIC 5.1%, cap $146.8M) and MGYR (Magyar Bancorp Inc.) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 13.4x, ROIC 8.0%, cap $144.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MGYR leads on earnings multiple (13.4x) while MGYR leads on capital efficiency (8.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FGBI?

Per FGBI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001408534), First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. generated $129.4M in revenue (-92.2% YoY), -$56.0M in net income, and -$10.0M in free cash flow against $4.08B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FGBI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FGBI last traded at $10.27 (+7.09% on volume of 55,528 shares), positioning the stock +21.54% above its 50-day simple moving average ($8.45) and +13.61% above its 200-day simple moving average ($9.04). Across its 52-week range of $4.31 to $11.02, FGBI sits at the 88.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 64.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.4% ($9.41 to $11.13).

Direct Sub-Reports: FGBI RQD Cockpit FGBI 12M Forecast FGBI Earnings & Move FGBI Dividends & DRIP FGBI Insiders & 13F FGBI Whale Options FGBI Profit Sankey FGBI News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 39/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

FGBI — First Guaranty Bancshares Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. (FGBI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 39/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $10.27 (+7.09% 1D, market capitalization $158.6M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (4/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -16.1%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of -6.17%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (13/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 1/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Savings Institutions industry. — regarding specific products, customer segments, or revenue model beyond the sector and industry classification. The profile lists a market capitalization of $0.2B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. (FGBI) reported $129.4M in annual revenue (up from $1.67B in FY2024, -92.2% YoY) and -$56.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($82.5M revenue, $9.2M net income) through FY2025, FGBI scaled operating cash flow to -$8.3M and free cash flow to -$10.0M, backed by $4.08B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 39/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -6.17% and institutional whale pillar of 13/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 4/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 13/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $4.31 – $11.02 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Savings Institutions (Financials), FGBI carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can FGBI sustain or expand its — operating margin and -16.1% ROIC against Savings Institutions peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $129.4M and free cash flow of -$10.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is FGBI's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

FGBI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. (FGBI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to FGBI Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

FGBI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $10.27?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON FGBI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on FGBI:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $11.41 (+19.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The Texas sale contributed an estimated $17.6 million gain before taxes, and the stock trades at $9.77 near the middle of its $4.31–$11

Don't sleep on FGBI's setup in Financials. The Texas sale contributed an estimated $17.6 million gain before taxes, and the stock trades at $9.77 near the middle of its $4.31–$11.02 52-week range.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (39/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@AlphaFlow_Cap Agree on the RQD 39/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $9.59 and keeping dry powder in case we test $8.92.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $7.96 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $9.59

Net income swung from $12.4M in FY 2024 to -$56.0M in FY 2025 while ROIC is -16.1% and the Piotroski F-Score is 1/9.

Fading this rally in FGBI at $9.59. Net income swung from $12.4M in FY 2024 to -$56.0M in FY 2025 while ROIC is -16.1% and the Piotroski F-Score is 1/9.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $9.59 (52-wk range $4.31–$11.02), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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