Stock Ratings / Financials / FGBI / options

LSBK (67) MGYR (73) BVFL (67) FNWD (65) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. (FGBI) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$9.59 -1.84% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.54

First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. (FGBI) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 39/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (39/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $158.6M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on FGBI Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FGBI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: FGBI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $9.59 (-1.84% 1D, market cap $158.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, FGBI ranks #927 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FGBI compare to LSBK and MGYR in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Savings Institutions), FGBI carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -16.1%. By comparison, LSBK (Lake Shore Bancorp Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 20.6x, ROIC 5.1%, cap $146.8M) and MGYR (Magyar Bancorp Inc.) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 13.4x, ROIC 8.0%, cap $144.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MGYR leads on earnings multiple (13.4x) while MGYR leads on capital efficiency (8.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FGBI?

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Per FGBI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001408534), First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$56.0M in net income, and -$10.0M in free cash flow against $4.08B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.54 (-0.52%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (39/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FGBI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (39/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY FGBI SCORES 39/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (33% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±8.4% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 1/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$8.09+2.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$8.29+7.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$8.89+7.9% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$9.59-7.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (31) → D- (39)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a FGBI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While FGBI currently carries a cautious 39/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($8.45) and Max Pain ($10.07) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $11.57.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FGBI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “FGBI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 39%NO 61%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±8.4%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (FGBI)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for FGBI.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FGBI)

✓Walkthrough of FGBI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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FGBI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.56%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-03O $9.77H $9.77L $9.59C $9.59VOL 35.1K

RES: $9.98SUP: $7.26SMA50: $8.45SMA200: $9.04

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FGBI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FGBI Butterfly Map → + Track FGBI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FGBI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FGBI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FGBI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FGBI)

Financials Rank #927 of 1096 ⚔️ LSBK vs FGBI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FGBI vs. LSBK, MGYR, BVFL, FNWD)

Industry: Savings Institutions (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. (FGBI) ranks #927 by composite RQD confidence (39/100, grade D-) and #919 by equity capitalization ($158.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MGYR leads on earnings valuation at 13.4x trailing P/E, while MGYR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 8.0% ROIC and — gross margin. MGYR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with FGBI at 39/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
FGBI ACTIVE First Guaranty Bancshares Inc.	D-	39/100	—	—	-16.1%	-1.84%	$158.6M	Benchmark Subject
LSBK Lake Shore Bancorp Inc.	C+	67/100	20.6x	—	5.1%	-1.84%	$146.8M	/lsbk-vs-fgbi →
MGYR Magyar Bancorp Inc.	B	73/100	13.4x	—	8.0%	+10.18%	$144.0M	/mgyr-vs-fgbi →
BVFL BV Financial Inc.	C+	67/100	14.0x	—	7.3%	-1.93%	$185.5M	/bvfl-vs-fgbi →
FNWD Finward Bancorp	C	65/100	23.5x	—	4.6%	-1.34%	$187.7M	/fnwd-vs-fgbi →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001408534

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. (FGBI) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$56.0M, operating cash flow of -$8.3M, and free cash flow of -$10.0M (-132.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, FGBI closed FY2025 with $4.08B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$56.0M	-$8.3M	-$10.0M	$4.08B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$12.4M	$33.7M	$30.7M	$3.97B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$9.2M	$21.7M	$21.7M	—	—

3. FGBI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FGBI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does FGBI compare to LSBK and MGYR in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FGBI?

Where is FGBI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FGBI last traded at $9.59 (-1.84% on volume of 35,145 shares), positioning the stock +13.49% above its 50-day simple moving average ($8.45) and +6.08% above its 200-day simple moving average ($9.04). Across its 52-week range of $4.31 to $11.02, FGBI sits at the 78.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 64.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.4% ($8.78 to $10.40).

FGBI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is FGBI's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for FGBI.

Direct Sub-Reports: FGBI RQD Cockpit FGBI 12M Forecast FGBI Earnings & Move FGBI Dividends & DRIP FGBI Insiders & 13F FGBI Whale Options FGBI Profit Sankey FGBI News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 39/100 (D-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

FGBI — First Guaranty Bancshares Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:42:22Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, FGBI scores 40 out of 100, earning a D- and the verdict "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." The fundamental cash engine pillar scores 4 out of 20, reflecting a ROIC of -16.1% and an FCF yield of -6.17%; for a prospective investor this indicates the business is not currently generating returns on invested capital or free cash flow relative to its capital base. The whale 13F flow pillar scores 14 out of 20, indicating institutional accumulation and options positioning are a relative area of support within the rating. The insider conviction pillar scores 3 out of 20, reflecting weak SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The macro regime fit pillar scores 9 out of 20, with a beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity noted. The forensic balance sheet pillar scores 10 out of 20, citing an Altman Z of 2.5, a Piotroski F of 1/9, and a Debt/Equity of 0.5. Upside drivers would need to come from a reversal in cash generation and profitability; the valuation tradeoff is that a low share price relative to its 52-week range does not by itself offset negative returns and cash flow. The rating's weakest pillars are insider and fundamental; institutional positioning is the relative bright spot.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$0.0M	$-46.2M	$-56.0M	N/A	$-10.0M	N/A	N/A
FY 2024	$0.0M	$0.0M	$12.4M	N/A	$30.7M	N/A	N/A
FY 2023	$0.0M	$0.0M	$9.2M	N/A	$21.7M	N/A	N/A

Per the SEC financials, net income moved from $9.2M in FY 2023 and $12.4M in FY 2024 to $-56.0M in FY 2025, with FCF following a similar path from $21.7M to $30.7M to $-10.0M. Per the market data, gross, operating, and net margins are each reported as 0%, and ROIC is -16.1%. Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and Piotroski F-Score is 1/9, both per the Roarable RQD rating. Debt/Equity is 0.5 per the same rating. Cash and debt line items are not available in source data.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Third quarter results and strategic update (Yahoo Finance, YELLOW): a headline reports Q3 2026 results and a strategic update; details are not available in source data.
Q3 earnings snapshot (kare11.com, YELLOW): a headline summary of Q3 earnings; details are not available in source data.
Texas sale gain (Stock Titan, GREEN, CATALYST): the headline states the Texas sale contributed an estimated $17.6 million gain before taxes.
Depositary share distribution (TradingView, YELLOW): a declared quarterly depositary share distribution of $0.421875.
Technical signal (MarketBeat, YELLOW): the stock price crossed below its 50-day moving average.
Director purchase (Investing.com India, YELLOW): a director named Smith bought $822,013 in stock.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

What are the Q3 2026 results and the strategic update referenced in the news wire, and how do they change the FY 2025 loss picture?
What is the cash, debt, EPS, and P/E profile, given these fields are not available in source data?
What portion of the $17.6 million Texas sale gain is recurring versus one-time, and how does it relate to the FY 2025 net loss?
What drove the swing from FY 2024 FCF of $30.7M to FY 2025 FCF of $-10.0M?
Does the director purchase and the institutional positioning reflected in the RQD rating extend to broader holder data, which is not available in source data?

FGBI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. (FGBI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to FGBI Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 17h ago

First Guaranty Bancshares Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results and Provides Strategic Update

Yahoo Finance report covering First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. (FGBI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE kare11.com • 20h ago

First Guaranty Bancshares: Q3 Earnings Snapshot

kare11.com report covering First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. (FGBI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Stock Titan • 23h ago

The Texas sale contributed an estimated $17.6 million gain before taxes to First Guaranty.

Stock Titan report covering First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. (FGBI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

First Guaranty Bancshares Declares $0.421875 Quarterly Depositary Share Distribution

TradingView report covering First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. (FGBI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

First Guaranty Bancshares (NASDAQ:FGBI) Stock Price Crosses Below 50-Day Moving Average - Here's Why

MarketBeat report covering First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. (FGBI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Investing.com India • 1d ago

First Guaranty Bancshares director Smith buys $822,013 in stock By Investing.com

Investing.com India report covering First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. (FGBI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Quiver Quantitative • 1d ago

First Guaranty Bancshares Reports Third Quarter 2026 Net Income of $12.0 Million and Advances Strategic Balance Sheet Restructuring

Quiver Quantitative report covering First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. (FGBI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Traders Daily • 1d ago

How First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. (FGBI) Affects Rotational Strategy Timing

Stock Traders Daily report covering First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. (FGBI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

FGBI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $9.59?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON FGBI 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.60 (-12.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is FGBI (D- • RQD 40/100) a Buy at $9.77?

Welcome to the FGBI (First Guaranty Bancshares Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 40/100 (Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow) in Savings Institutions. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.21 (-16.0%)

Spot @ $9.77

Pump the brakes on FGBI — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on FGBI, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $11.14 (+14.0%)

Spot @ $9.77

FGBI cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on FGBI, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Savings Institutions and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $9.77 (52-wk range $4.31 - $11.02), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.