What is FLD's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for FLD.

Stock Ratings / Financials / FLD / options

GRAN (31) RAND (39) AMTD (46) JFU (44) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Fold Holdings Inc. (Class A) (FLD) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$0.55 +2.88% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.55

Fold Holdings Inc. (Class A) (FLD) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 35/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $29.3M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FLD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Fold Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: FLD) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $0.55 (+2.88% 1D, market cap $29.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, FLD ranks #985 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FLD compare to GRAN and RAND in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), FLD carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, GRAN (Grande Group Limited (Class A)) holds a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $29.6M) and RAND (Rand Capital Corporation) posts a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -15.4%, cap $28.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FLD leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while AMTD leads on capital efficiency (4.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FLD?

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Per FLD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001889123), Fold Holdings Inc. (Class A) generated $64.5M in revenue (+688.2% YoY), -$69.6M in net income, and -$16.1M in free cash flow against $153.5M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.55 (+0.33%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FLD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (35/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY FLD SCORES 35/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 1/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+9/20 pts (26% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$0.54-5.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$0.51+0% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$0.51+7.8% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$0.55-8.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (27) → D- (35)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a FLD Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While FLD currently carries a cautious 35/100 (D-) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($0.53) and Max Pain ($0.58) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $3.78.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FLD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “FLD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 35%NO 65%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±12.5%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (FLD)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for FLD.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FLD)

✓Walkthrough of FLD's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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FLD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -58.96%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-03O $0.52H $0.55L $0.52C $0.55VOL 80.4K

RES: $0.57SUP: $0.51SMA50: $0.53SMA200: $0.94

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FLD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FLD Butterfly Map → + Track FLD →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +688.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FLD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FLD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FLD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FLD)

Financials Rank #985 of 1097 ⚔️ GRAN vs FLD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FLD vs. GRAN, RAND, AMTD, JFU)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Fold Holdings Inc. (Class A) (FLD) ranks #985 by composite RQD confidence (35/100, grade D-) and #1039 by equity capitalization ($29.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FLD leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while AMTD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 4.9% ROIC and — gross margin. AMTD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 46/100 (D) compared with FLD at 35/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
FLD ACTIVE Fold Holdings Inc. (Class A)	D-	35/100	—	—	-35.0%	+2.88%	$29.3M	Benchmark Subject
GRAN Grande Group Limited (Class A)	E	31/100	—	—	—	+0.84%	$29.6M	/gran-vs-fld →
RAND Rand Capital Corporation	D-	39/100	—	—	-15.4%	+0.21%	$28.2M	/rand-vs-fld →
AMTD AMTD IDEA Group each representing three hundred sixty (360) (Class A)	D	46/100	—	—	4.9%	-2.65%	$31.3M	/amtd-vs-fld →
JFU 9F Inc.	D	44/100	—	—	0.3%	+4.74%	$27.0M	/jfu-vs-fld →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001889123 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Fold Holdings Inc. (Class A) (FLD) reported GAAP revenue of $64.5M (+688.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $8.2M , and +517.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$69.6M, operating cash flow of -$16.1M, and free cash flow of -$16.1M (-386.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, FLD closed FY2025 with $153.5M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$64.5M	-$69.6M	-$16.1M	-$16.1M	$153.5M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$8.2M	-$65.1M	-$3.3M	-$3.3M	$125.7M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$10.4M	$4.4M	-$5.1M	-$5.1M	—	—

3. FLD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FLD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does FLD compare to GRAN and RAND in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FLD?

Where is FLD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FLD last traded at $0.55 (+2.88% on volume of 113,745 shares), positioning the stock +3.77% above its 50-day simple moving average ($0.53) and -41.49% below its 200-day simple moving average ($0.94). Across its 52-week range of $0.35 to $3.60, FLD sits at the 6.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $0.62).

Direct Sub-Reports: FLD RQD Cockpit FLD 12M Forecast FLD Earnings & Move FLD Dividends & DRIP FLD Insiders & 13F FLD Whale Options FLD Profit Sankey FLD News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 35/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

FLD — Fold Holdings Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Fold Holdings Inc. (Class A) (FLD) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 35/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $0.55 (+2.88% 1D, market capitalization $29.3M).

Fundamental Cash Engine (3/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (9/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 1/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. (Class A) (FLD) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Financials sector, operating in Finance: Consumer Services. Per the recent news wire, the company has introduced a bitcoin bonus product aimed at hourly workers. — for detailed revenue sources, customer base composition, or pricing model beyond this headline reference.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Fold Holdings Inc. (Class A) (FLD) reported $64.5M in annual revenue (up from $8.2M in FY2024, +688.2% YoY) and -$69.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($10.4M revenue, $4.4M net income) through FY2025, FLD scaled operating cash flow to -$16.1M and free cash flow to -$16.1M, backed by $153.5M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 35/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 9/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 3/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 9/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $0.35 – $3.60 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Sector correlations, bottleneck mapping, and second-order ripple effects cannot be established from the source data provided.

Key Question #1: Can FLD sustain or expand its — operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Finance: Consumer Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $64.5M and free cash flow of -$16.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is FLD's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

FLD Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Fold Holdings Inc. (Class A) (FLD) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to FLD Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 22h ago

Fold Holdings, Inc. Estimates – NASDAQ:FLD

TradingView report covering Fold Holdings Inc. (Class A) (FLD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Investing.com • 1d ago

Fold Holdings CFO repass Wolfe sells $652 in common stock

Investing.com report covering Fold Holdings Inc. (Class A) (FLD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

Third-quarter results are due before Fold's Nov. 10 call

Stock Titan report covering Fold Holdings Inc. (Class A) (FLD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE CoinMarketCap • 1d ago

Fold Targets Hourly Workers With New Bitcoin Bonus Product

CoinMarketCap report covering Fold Holdings Inc. (Class A) (FLD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

A proposed 2,347-share sale at Fold Holdings (NASDAQ: FLD) includes funds for vesting taxes.

Stock Titan report covering Fold Holdings Inc. (Class A) (FLD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Investing.com India • 1d ago

Form 4 Fold Holdings For: 26 October By Investing.com

Investing.com India report covering Fold Holdings Inc. (Class A) (FLD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

To cover taxes, Fold Holdings (FLD) COO sells 2,347 shares at $0.51.

Stock Titan report covering Fold Holdings Inc. (Class A) (FLD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Seoul Economic Daily • 1d ago

Demand for AI Field Engineers Jumps 14-Fold in a Year

Seoul Economic Daily report covering Fold Holdings Inc. (Class A) (FLD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

FLD Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $0.55?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON FLD 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $0.61 (+15.1%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Price sits near the low end of its $0.35 - $3.7 52-week range with beta at 1.0, leaving room for a rebound if cash generation improves.

Price sits near the low end of its $0.35 - $3.7 52-week range with beta at 1.0, leaving room for a rebound if cash generation improves.. When you look under the hood at FLD, Fundamental Cash Engine is 3/20 with 0.0% gross margins and -35.0% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (9/20) has been quietly accumulating below $3.60. My 12M target is $0.61.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@MacroHawk_NYC Agree on the RQD 35/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $0.53 and keeping dry powder in case we test $0.49.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $0.40 (-24.5%)

Spot @ $0.53

ROIC of -35%, a 0% FCF yield, and an RQD score of 36 point to a weak cash engine and a balance sheet that the rating labels vulnerable.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on FLD: ROIC of -35%, a 0% FCF yield, and an RQD score of 36 point to a weak cash engine and a balance sheet that the rating labels vulnerable.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Finance: Consumer Services triggers a 12-15% air pocket.