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Stock Ratings / Financials / FOR / financials
MMI (44) IIPR (57) EFC (34) BXDC (46) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Forestar Group Inc (FOR) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$24.55 +2.55% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $24.62

Forestar Group Inc (FOR) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 29/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E β€’ RED ALERT Cap $1.22B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on FOR Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FOR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Forestar Group Inc (NYSE: FOR) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $24.55 (+2.55% 1D, market cap $1.22B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, FOR ranks #1029 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FOR compare to MMI and IIPR in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate), FOR carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.6x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 9.4%. By comparison, MMI (Marcus & Millichap Inc.) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -1.8%, cap $1.06B) and IIPR (Innovative Industrial Properties Inc.) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 12.5x, ROIC 5.4%, cap $1.43B). Among the 5-stock peer group, FOR leads on earnings multiple (7.6x) while FOR leads on capital efficiency (9.4% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FOR?
β–Ό

Per FOR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001406587), Forestar Group Inc generated $1.66B in revenue (+10.1% YoY), $167.9M in net income, and -$199.9M in free cash flow against $3.18B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $24.62 (+0.27%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) β€’ 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (29/100 Β· E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT β€’ E
025507510029
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E Β· Rk E
Cash (6)Whales (3)SEC (10)Macro (3)CEO (7)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13% Base Target
$34 Bull$21 Base$17 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE FOR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FOR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±7.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (29/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY FOR SCORES 29/100 (E) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (34% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 2/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+7/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 35% Net Buy β€’ Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (38.6) create a -16 pt regime headwind

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
37
Grade E$25.41+0.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
34
Grade E$25.59+2.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
32
Grade E$26.26-6.5% Next Q
Current
29
Grade E$24.55-9.8% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: E (37) β†’ E (29)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a FOR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While FOR currently carries a cautious 29/100 (E) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($26.33) and Max Pain ($25.78) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $33.66.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FORβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œFOR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 29%NO 71%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL β€’ FY 2025 (10-K)

How FOR Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)
Revenue$1.66BGross Profit $864.4M (52%)Cost of Sales $798.0MOp Profit $0 (0%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $864.4MNet Profit$167.9M (10.1%)Tax/Other $0

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

β–  Revenueβ–  Net Profitβ–  Free Cash Flow
FY23
Rev $1.44B
FY24
Rev $1.51B
FY25
Rev $1.66B
Fiscal YearRevenueGross MarginOp MarginNet ProfitFree Cash FlowROIC %
FY 2025$1.66B52%0%$167.9M-$199.9M9.4%
FY 2024$1.51B52%0%$203.4M-$160.6M9.4%
FY 2023$1.44B52%0%$166.9M$364.1M9.4%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FOR)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of FOR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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FOR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -6.40%β–Ό DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $25.03H $25.03L $23.94C $24.55VOL 348.7K
RES: $26.12SUP: $23.76SMA50: $26.33SMA200: $27.39
$32.64$30.25$27.86$25.47$23.08RES $26.12SUP $23.76$24.552026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FOR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ FOR Butterfly Map β†’ + Track FOR β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-6.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +10.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FOR today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FOR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FOR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FOR)

Financials Rank #1029 of 1097 βš”οΈ MMI vs FOR Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FOR vs. MMI, IIPR, EFC, BXDC)

Industry: Real Estate (54 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Forestar Group Inc (FOR) ranks #1029 by composite RQD confidence (29/100, grade E) and #519 by equity capitalization ($1.22B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FOR leads on earnings valuation at 7.6x trailing P/E, while FOR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.4% ROIC and β€” gross margin. IIPR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 57/100 (D+) compared with FOR at 29/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
FOR ACTIVE
Forestar Group Inc
E 29/100 7.6x β€” 9.4% +2.55% $1.22B Benchmark Subject
MMI
Marcus & Millichap Inc.
D 44/100 β€” β€” -1.8% +3.96% $1.06B /mmi-vs-for β†’
IIPR
Innovative Industrial Properties Inc.
D+ 57/100 12.5x β€” 5.4% +4.54% $1.43B /iipr-vs-for β†’
EFC
Ellington Financial Inc.
E 34/100 10.1x β€” 8.2% +1.14% $1.47B /efc-vs-for β†’
BXDC
Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust Inc.
D 46/100 β€” β€” β€” +0.44% $1.59B /bxdc-vs-for β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-09-30 β€’ CIK 0001406587 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Forestar Group Inc (FOR) reported GAAP revenue of $1.66B (+10.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.51B , and +15.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $167.9M, operating cash flow of -$197.7M, and free cash flow of -$199.9M (-24.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, FOR closed FY2025 with $3.18B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-09-30 $1.66B $167.9M -$197.7M -$199.9M $3.18B β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-09-30 $1.51B $203.4M -$158.4M -$160.6M $2.96B β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-09-30 $1.44B $166.9M $364.1M $364.1M β€” β€”

3. FOR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FOR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Forestar Group Inc (NYSE: FOR) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $24.55 (+2.55% 1D, market cap $1.22B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, FOR ranks #1029 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FOR compare to MMI and IIPR in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate), FOR carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.6x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 9.4%. By comparison, MMI (Marcus & Millichap Inc.) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -1.8%, cap $1.06B) and IIPR (Innovative Industrial Properties Inc.) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 12.5x, ROIC 5.4%, cap $1.43B). Among the 5-stock peer group, FOR leads on earnings multiple (7.6x) while FOR leads on capital efficiency (9.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FOR?

Per FOR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001406587), Forestar Group Inc generated $1.66B in revenue (+10.1% YoY), $167.9M in net income, and -$199.9M in free cash flow against $3.18B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FOR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FOR last traded at $24.55 (+2.55% on volume of 263,506 shares), positioning the stock -6.76% below its 50-day simple moving average ($26.33) and -10.37% below its 200-day simple moving average ($27.39). Across its 52-week range of $22.81 to $32.06, FOR sits at the 18.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±7.2% ($22.78 to $26.32).

Direct Sub-Reports: FOR RQD Cockpit FOR 12M Forecast FOR Earnings & Move FOR Dividends & DRIP FOR Insiders & 13F FOR Whale Options FOR Profit Sankey FOR News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 29/100 (E) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

FOR β€” Forestar Group Inc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-09-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Forestar Group Inc (FOR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 29/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $24.55 (+2.55% 1D, market capitalization $1.22B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (6/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.4%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of β€”, and free cash flow yield of -15.65%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (7/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (3/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Forestar Group Inc is a NYSE-listed company classified under the Financials sector and Real Estate industry,. Reported revenue of $1.66B for FY 2025 is .

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-09-30), Forestar Group Inc (FOR) reported $1.66B in annual revenue (up from $1.51B in FY2024, +10.1% YoY) and $167.9M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.44B revenue, $166.9M net income) through FY2025, FOR scaled operating cash flow to -$197.7M and free cash flow to -$199.9M, backed by $3.18B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (E β€’ RQD 29/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -15.65% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 6/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $22.81 – $32.06 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 7.6x trailing P/E against β€” operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Supply_chain is NONE, butterfly_links is empty, and proprietary_signals is empty. No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks are recorded in the source data.

  • Key Question #1: Can FOR sustain or expand its β€” operating margin and 9.4% ROIC against Real Estate peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.66B and free cash flow of -$199.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is FOR's 7.1x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

FOR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Forestar Group Inc (FOR) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to FOR Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

FOR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $24.55?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON FOR 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on FOR:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Options Flow Specialist πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $29.69 (+24.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Trades at a 7.6x trailing P/E and 7.1x forward P/E with a 9.4% ROIC and 10.1% net margin.

Here is why I am bullish on FOR here at $23.94: Trades at a 7.6x trailing P/E and 7.1x forward P/E with a 9.4% ROIC and 10.1% net margin.. Compare FOR's 0.0% operating margin and 9.4% ROIC against the rest of Real Estate. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $22.74 are getting bought.

ArenaChamp_24 πŸ‚ BULL

@DeltaGamma_99 Agree on the RQD 29/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $23.94 and keeping dry powder in case we test $22.26.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $19.87 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $23.94

Free cash flow was negative in FY 2025 (-$199.9M) and FY 2024 (-$160.6M), with a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 and an E-grade RQD rating.

I respect the product at Forestar Group Inc, but the stock at $23.94 is a different story. Free cash flow was negative in FY 2025 (-$199.9M) and FY 2024 (-$160.6M), with a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 and an E-grade RQD rating.. FCF yield is -15.65% and RQD sits at 29/100 (E) β€” why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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