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Why FOR Stock surged +2.55% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$24.55 +2.55% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $24.62

Forestar Group Inc (FOR) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 29/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $1.22B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FOR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Forestar Group Inc (NYSE: FOR) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $24.55 (+2.55% 1D, market cap $1.22B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, FOR ranks #1029 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FOR compare to MMI and IIPR in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate), FOR carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.4%. By comparison, MMI (Marcus & Millichap Inc.) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -1.8%, cap $1.06B) and IIPR (Innovative Industrial Properties Inc.) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 12.5x, ROIC 5.4%, cap $1.43B). Among the 5-stock peer group, FOR leads on earnings multiple (7.6x) while FOR leads on capital efficiency (9.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FOR?
▼

Per FOR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001406587), Forestar Group Inc generated $1.66B in revenue (+10.1% YoY), $167.9M in net income, and -$199.9M in free cash flow against $3.18B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $24.62 (+0.27%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (29/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510029
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Cash (6)Whales (3)SEC (10)Macro (3)CEO (7)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13% Base Target
$34 Bull$21 Base$17 Bear
📬 FREE FOR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FOR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (29/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY FOR SCORES 29/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (34% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+7/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 35% Net Buy • Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (38.6) create a -16 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
37
Grade E$25.41+0.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
34
Grade E$25.59+2.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
32
Grade E$26.26-6.5% Next Q
Current
29
Grade E$24.55-9.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (37) → E (29)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a FOR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While FOR currently carries a cautious 29/100 (E) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($26.33) and Max Pain ($25.78) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $33.66.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FOR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “FOR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 29%NO 71%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why FOR Stock surged +2.55% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Forestar Group Inc (FOR) surged +2.55% to $24.55, trading at 19% of its 52-week range ($22.81 – $32.06). Stretched risk/reward at 8x P/E (9% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 19% of its 52-week range ($22.81 – $32.06) with RSI-14 at 38.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±7.2% around $24.55 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable E (Strong Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live FOR Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREYahoo • 4d ago
Forestar Group Q4 Earnings Call Highlights

Forestar Group (NYSE:FOR) reported fourth-quarter net income of $59.2 million, or $1.15 per diluted share, on revenue of $580.8 million, as the lot developer navigated continued affordability pressures and cautious homeb

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FOR)

  • ✓Walkthrough of FOR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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FOR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -6.40%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $25.03H $25.03L $23.94C $24.55VOL 348.7K
RES: $26.12SUP: $23.76SMA50: $26.33SMA200: $27.39
$32.64$30.25$27.86$25.47$23.08RES $26.12SUP $23.76$24.552026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FOR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FOR Butterfly Map → + Track FOR →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-6.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +10.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FOR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FOR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FOR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FOR)

Financials Rank #1029 of 1097 ⚔️ MMI vs FOR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FOR vs. MMI, IIPR, EFC, BXDC)

Industry: Real Estate (54 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Forestar Group Inc (FOR) ranks #1029 by composite RQD confidence (29/100, grade E) and #519 by equity capitalization ($1.22B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FOR leads on earnings valuation at 7.6x trailing P/E, while FOR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.4% ROIC and — gross margin. IIPR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 57/100 (D+) compared with FOR at 29/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
FOR ACTIVE
Forestar Group Inc
E 29/100 7.6x — 9.4% +2.55% $1.22B Benchmark Subject
MMI
Marcus & Millichap Inc.
D 44/100 — — -1.8% +3.96% $1.06B /mmi-vs-for →
IIPR
Innovative Industrial Properties Inc.
D+ 57/100 12.5x — 5.4% +4.54% $1.43B /iipr-vs-for →
EFC
Ellington Financial Inc.
E 34/100 10.1x — 8.2% +1.14% $1.47B /efc-vs-for →
BXDC
Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust Inc.
D 46/100 — — — +0.44% $1.59B /bxdc-vs-for →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001406587 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Forestar Group Inc (FOR) reported GAAP revenue of $1.66B (+10.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.51B , and +15.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $167.9M, operating cash flow of -$197.7M, and free cash flow of -$199.9M (-24.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, FOR closed FY2025 with $3.18B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-09-30 $1.66B $167.9M -$197.7M -$199.9M $3.18B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-09-30 $1.51B $203.4M -$158.4M -$160.6M $2.96B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-09-30 $1.44B $166.9M $364.1M $364.1M — —

3. FOR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FOR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Forestar Group Inc (NYSE: FOR) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $24.55 (+2.55% 1D, market cap $1.22B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, FOR ranks #1029 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FOR compare to MMI and IIPR in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate), FOR carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.4%. By comparison, MMI (Marcus & Millichap Inc.) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -1.8%, cap $1.06B) and IIPR (Innovative Industrial Properties Inc.) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 12.5x, ROIC 5.4%, cap $1.43B). Among the 5-stock peer group, FOR leads on earnings multiple (7.6x) while FOR leads on capital efficiency (9.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FOR?

Per FOR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001406587), Forestar Group Inc generated $1.66B in revenue (+10.1% YoY), $167.9M in net income, and -$199.9M in free cash flow against $3.18B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FOR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FOR last traded at $24.55 (+2.55% on volume of 263,506 shares), positioning the stock -6.76% below its 50-day simple moving average ($26.33) and -10.37% below its 200-day simple moving average ($27.39). Across its 52-week range of $22.81 to $32.06, FOR sits at the 18.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.2% ($22.78 to $26.32).

Direct Sub-Reports: FOR RQD Cockpit FOR 12M Forecast FOR Earnings & Move FOR Dividends & DRIP FOR Insiders & 13F FOR Whale Options FOR Profit Sankey FOR News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 29/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

FOR — Forestar Group Inc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-09-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Forestar Group Inc (FOR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 29/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $24.55 (+2.55% 1D, market capitalization $1.22B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (6/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.4%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of -15.65%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (7/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (3/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Forestar Group Inc is a NYSE-listed company classified under the Financials sector and Real Estate industry,. Reported revenue of $1.66B for FY 2025 is .

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-09-30), Forestar Group Inc (FOR) reported $1.66B in annual revenue (up from $1.51B in FY2024, +10.1% YoY) and $167.9M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.44B revenue, $166.9M net income) through FY2025, FOR scaled operating cash flow to -$197.7M and free cash flow to -$199.9M, backed by $3.18B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 29/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -15.65% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 6/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $22.81 – $32.06 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 7.6x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Supply_chain is NONE, butterfly_links is empty, and proprietary_signals is empty. No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks are recorded in the source data.

  • Key Question #1: Can FOR sustain or expand its — operating margin and 9.4% ROIC against Real Estate peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.66B and free cash flow of -$199.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is FOR's 7.1x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

FOR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Forestar Group Inc (FOR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to FOR Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

FOR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $24.55?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON FOR 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on FOR:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $29.69 (+24.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Trades at a 7.6x trailing P/E and 7.1x forward P/E with a 9.4% ROIC and 10.1% net margin.

Here is why I am bullish on FOR here at $23.94: Trades at a 7.6x trailing P/E and 7.1x forward P/E with a 9.4% ROIC and 10.1% net margin.. Compare FOR's 0.0% operating margin and 9.4% ROIC against the rest of Real Estate. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $22.74 are getting bought.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@DeltaGamma_99 Agree on the RQD 29/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $23.94 and keeping dry powder in case we test $22.26.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $19.87 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $23.94

Free cash flow was negative in FY 2025 (-$199.9M) and FY 2024 (-$160.6M), with a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 and an E-grade RQD rating.

I respect the product at Forestar Group Inc, but the stock at $23.94 is a different story. Free cash flow was negative in FY 2025 (-$199.9M) and FY 2024 (-$160.6M), with a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 and an E-grade RQD rating.. FCF yield is -15.65% and RQD sits at 29/100 (E) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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