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Stock Ratings / Utilities / FRVO / earnings
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Fervo Energy Company (FRVO) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

$8.25 -0.30% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.23

Fervo Energy Company (FRVO) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $2.44B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on FRVO Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FRVO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Fervo Energy Company (NASDAQ: FRVO) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $8.25 (-0.30% 1D, market cap $2.44B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Active quantitative signal LIQUIDITY_TAILWIND (BULLISH, conviction undefined/100) notes: undefined.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FRVO compare to RNW and KEN in the Utilities sector?
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Within the Utilities sector (Electric Utilities: Central), FRVO carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 38.5%. By comparison, RNW (ReNew Energy Global plc (Class A)) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.50B) and KEN (Kenon Holdings Ltd.) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $3.34B). Among the 5-stock peer group, OTTR leads on earnings multiple (13.8x) while FRVO leads on capital efficiency (38.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FRVO?
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Per FRVO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001853868), Fervo Energy Company generated $573.4M in revenue, $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $1.37B in total assets and $172.8M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.23 (-0.24%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
025507510059
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C
Cash (14)Whales (4)SEC (18)Macro (8)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.5% Base Target
$45 Bull$8 Base$6 Bear
📬 FREE FRVO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FRVO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY FRVO SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (31% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.72 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
67
Grade B-$10.94-17.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
64
Grade C+$9.02-7.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
62
Grade C+$8.33-1% Next Q
Current
59
Grade C-$8.25+0.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (67) → C- (59)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FRVO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, FRVO faces multiple-compression risk if 32.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($13.41) or 200D SMA ($22.57) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($8.29) toward Bear Floor ($6.47).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FRVO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “FRVO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$1.03 Expected Swing
$7.22 (-12.5%)Spot $8.25$9.28 (+12.5%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

FRVO Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 59/100

Trailing EPS: $0.27 • YoY Revenue Growth: 4.4%

Model Bullish Setup (59/100)Model Risk Weight (41/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$573.4M$0$052%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating FRVO & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on FRVO
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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FRVO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -77.42%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $8.99H $8.99L $8.25C $8.25VOL 7.23M
RES: $11.15SUP: $6.49SMA50: $13.41SMA200: $22.57
$45.10$34.97$24.84$14.71$4.58RES $11.15SUP $6.49$8.252026-05-132026-06-262026-08-102026-09-222026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FRVO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FRVO Butterfly Map → + Track FRVO →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
25.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FRVO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FRVO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FRVO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FRVO)

Utilities Rank #35 of 116 ⚔️ RNW vs FRVO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Utilities Peer Comparison (FRVO vs. RNW, KEN, CEPU, OTTR)

Industry: Electric Utilities: Central (56 Tracked Issuers)

Across 116 tracked Utilities securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Fervo Energy Company (FRVO) ranks #35 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #71 by equity capitalization ($2.44B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OTTR leads on earnings valuation at 13.8x trailing P/E, while FRVO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 38.5% ROIC and — gross margin. OTTR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with FRVO at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
FRVO ACTIVE
Fervo Energy Company
C- 59/100 32.8x — 38.5% -0.30% $2.44B Benchmark Subject
RNW
ReNew Energy Global plc (Class A)
D+ 57/100 — — — 0.00% $2.50B /rnw-vs-frvo →
KEN
Kenon Holdings Ltd.
D 47/100 — — — +1.54% $3.34B /ken-vs-frvo →
CEPU
Central Puerto S.A. (each represents ten )
D 44/100 — — — -2.45% $1.61B /cepu-vs-frvo →
OTTR
Otter Tail Corporation
B- 71/100 13.8x — 18.5% +1.28% $3.79B /ottr-vs-frvo →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2025–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001853868 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Fervo Energy Company (FRVO) reported GAAP revenue of $573.4M , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, FRVO closed FY2025 with $1.37B in total assets against $172.8M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.72, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $573.4M $0 $0 $0 $1.37B $172.8M

3. FRVO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FRVO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Fervo Energy Company (NASDAQ: FRVO) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $8.25 (-0.30% 1D, market cap $2.44B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Active quantitative signal LIQUIDITY_TAILWIND (BULLISH, conviction undefined/100) notes: undefined.

How does FRVO compare to RNW and KEN in the Utilities sector?

Within the Utilities sector (Electric Utilities: Central), FRVO carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 38.5%. By comparison, RNW (ReNew Energy Global plc (Class A)) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.50B) and KEN (Kenon Holdings Ltd.) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $3.34B). Among the 5-stock peer group, OTTR leads on earnings multiple (13.8x) while FRVO leads on capital efficiency (38.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FRVO?

Per FRVO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001853868), Fervo Energy Company generated $573.4M in revenue, $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $1.37B in total assets and $172.8M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FRVO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FRVO last traded at $8.25 (-0.30% on volume of 5,030,030 shares), positioning the stock -38.48% below its 50-day simple moving average ($13.41) and -63.45% below its 200-day simple moving average ($22.57). Across its 52-week range of $7.72 to $42.65, FRVO sits at the 1.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 33.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($7.22 to $9.28).

Direct Sub-Reports: FRVO RQD Cockpit FRVO 12M Forecast FRVO Earnings & Move FRVO Dividends & DRIP FRVO Insiders & 13F FRVO Whale Options FRVO Profit Sankey FRVO News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 59/100 (C-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

FRVO — Fervo Energy Company: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Fervo Energy Company (FRVO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 59/100, corresponding to a C- letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $8.25 (-0.30% 1D, market capitalization $2.44B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 38.5%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 13.9%, and free cash flow yield of 2.21%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (18/20): Incorporates a 0.63x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 4.72, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.85x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Fervo Energy Company is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Utilities sector, specifically the Electric Utilities: Central industry. The profile identifies its market capitalization as $2.6B. The recent news items reference a power project using engineered underground heat, described as the first newly built project of its kind in commercial operation, per the news wire headlines, but no further operational detail is provided in the source data.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Fervo Energy Company (FRVO) reported $573.4M in annual revenue and $0 in GAAP net income. Operating cash flow reached $0 and free cash flow totaled $0, backed by $1.37B in total assets against $172.8M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C- • RQD 59/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $7.72 – $42.65 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 32.8x trailing P/E and 17.9x EV/EBITDA against 13.9% operating margins and a 0.63x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The supply_chain field is NONE and the butterfly_links array is empty. No upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or peer links are provided in the source data. The graph does identify the sector as Utilities and the industry as Electric Utilities: Central. The only quantified cross-market linkage is the liquidity-elasticity relationship described above, which is a statistical sensitivity to net liquidity rather than a supply-chain dependency. Investors should note that the absence of mapped supply-chain links means second-order bottleneck analysis cannot be performed from these sources.

  • Key Question #1: Can FRVO sustain or expand its 13.9% operating margin and 38.5% ROIC against Electric Utilities: Central peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $573.4M and free cash flow of $0, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $172.8M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is FRVO's 30.5x forward P/E multiple to Utilities capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.63x)?

FRVO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Fervo Energy Company (FRVO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to FRVO Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

FRVO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $8.25?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON FRVO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on FRVO:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $9.60 (+15.9%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance sheet scores 18 of 20 with an Altman Z-Score of 4.72, cash of $461.8M above debt of $172.8M, and a 6.00x net liquidity

Picked up a starter position in FRVO in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $8.28. Forensic balance sheet scores 18 of 20 with an Altman Z-Score of 4.72, cash of $461.8M above debt of $172.8M, and a 6.00x net liquidity beta under a BULLISH 96/100 macro tailwind signal.. Trading inside a $7.72–$42.65 52-week range with 2.21% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Electric Utilities: Central multiples expand this quarter.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Fair point on 32.8x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Electric Utilities: Central. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $6.79 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $8.28

Whale 13F Flow scores only 5 of 20 and a securities fraud investigation is referenced in the news set, while trailing P/E sits at 32.8

Fading this rally in FRVO at $8.28. Whale 13F Flow scores only 5 of 20 and a securities fraud investigation is referenced in the news set, while trailing P/E sits at 32.8 and the 52-week range has fallen from $42.65 to $7.72.. With a beta of 0.63 and the stock sitting at $8.28 (52-wk range $7.72–$42.65), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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