How profitable is First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), FWRG converted $1.2B of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 2.3% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / FWRG / financials

CNNE (34) BLMN (60) BH (61) HDL (46) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

Q: Where is FWRG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FWRG last traded at $12.95 (+1.65% on volume of 4,185,299 shares), positioning the stock +14.10% above its 50-day simple moving average ($11.35) and +4.52% above its 200-day simple moving average ($12.39). Across its 52-week range of $9.88 to $18.77, FWRG sits at the 34.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 63.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.9% ($11.41 to $14.49).

$12.95 +1.65% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.96

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 38/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (38/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $786.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on FWRG Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FWRG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (NASDAQ: FWRG) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $12.95 (+1.65% 1D, market cap $786.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, FWRG ranks #755 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FWRG compare to CNNE and BLMN in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), FWRG carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 39.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.6%. By comparison, CNNE (Cannae Holdings Inc.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -10.6%, cap $743.4M) and BLMN (Bloomin' Brands Inc.) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 111.1x, ROIC 10.7%, cap $905.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FWRG leads on earnings multiple (39.7x) while BLMN leads on capital efficiency (10.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FWRG?

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Per FWRG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28, CIK 0001789940), First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. generated $1.22B in revenue (+20.3% YoY), $19.4M in net income, and -$31.0M in free cash flow against $1.74B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.96 (+0.11%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (38/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FWRG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (38/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY FWRG SCORES 38/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (32% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±11.9% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.06 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 2.3% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$12.04-0.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$11.97-7.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$11.09+16.8% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$12.95-7.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (30) → D- (38)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a FWRG Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While FWRG currently carries a cautious 38/100 (D-) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($11.35) and Max Pain ($13.60) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $19.71.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FWRG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “FWRG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 27, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 38%NO 62%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How FWRG Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $891.6M

FY24

Rev $1.02B

FY25

Rev $1.22B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$1.22B	52%	2.3%	$19.4M	-$31.0M	3.6%
FY 2024	$1.02B	52%	3.8%	$18.9M	-$12.2M	5.5%
FY 2023	$891.6M	52%	4.6%	$25.4M	$95.3M	3.6%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FWRG)

✓Walkthrough of FWRG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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FWRG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.06%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-03O $12.51H $12.95L $12.51C $12.95VOL 2.16M

RES: $13.13SUP: $9.85SMA50: $11.35SMA200: $12.39

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FWRG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FWRG Butterfly Map → + Track FWRG →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

30.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +20.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FWRG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FWRG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FWRG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FWRG)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #755 of 1011 ⚔️ CNNE vs FWRG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (FWRG vs. CNNE, BLMN, BH, HDL)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) ranks #755 by composite RQD confidence (38/100, grade D-) and #538 by equity capitalization ($786.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FWRG leads on earnings valuation at 39.7x trailing P/E, while BLMN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.7% ROIC and 70.2% gross margin. BH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with FWRG at 38/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
FWRG ACTIVE First Watch Restaurant Group Inc.	D-	38/100	39.7x	—	3.6%	+1.65%	$786.2M	Benchmark Subject
CNNE Cannae Holdings Inc.	E	34/100	—	15.5%	-10.6%	+2.39%	$743.4M	/cnne-vs-fwrg →
BLMN Bloomin' Brands Inc.	C-	60/100	111.1x	70.2%	10.7%	+3.12%	$905.0M	/blmn-vs-fwrg →
BH Biglari Holdings Inc. (Class B)	C-	61/100	—	59.2%	-7.2%	-1.39%	$916.0M	/bh-vs-fwrg →
HDL SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD.	D	46/100	—	—	—	0.00%	$643.8M	/hdl-vs-fwrg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-28 • CIK 0001789940

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28), First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) reported GAAP revenue of $1.22B (+20.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.02B , and +37.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $19.4M, operating cash flow of $125.9M, and free cash flow of -$31.0M (-153.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, FWRG closed FY2025 with $1.74B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.06, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-28	$1.22B	$19.4M	$125.9M	-$31.0M	$1.74B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-29	$1.02B	$18.9M	$115.7M	-$12.2M	$1.51B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$891.6M	$25.4M	$95.3M	$95.3M	—	—

3. FWRG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FWRG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does FWRG compare to CNNE and BLMN in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FWRG?

Where is FWRG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FWRG last traded at $12.95 (+1.65% on volume of 4,185,299 shares), positioning the stock +14.10% above its 50-day simple moving average ($11.35) and +4.52% above its 200-day simple moving average ($12.39). Across its 52-week range of $9.88 to $18.77, FWRG sits at the 34.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 63.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.9% ($11.41 to $14.49).

Direct Sub-Reports: FWRG RQD Cockpit FWRG 12M Forecast FWRG Earnings & Move FWRG Dividends & DRIP FWRG Insiders & 13F FWRG Whale Options FWRG Profit Sankey FWRG News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 38/100 (D-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

FWRG — First Watch Restaurant Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:33:03Z

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

FWRG scores 37 out of 100, earning a D- grade and the verdict "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." The five pillars are:

Fundamental Cash Engine (4 / 20): The rating cites ROIC of 3.6% and FCF yield of -4.01%. Investor implication: the business is not currently converting capital into free cash for shareholders, which weakens the case for paying today's valuation on cash generation.
Whale 13F Flow (11 / 20): Institutional accumulation and options positioning are scored as moderate. Investor implication: some institutional interest exists, but it does not offset the fundamental weakness.
Insider Conviction (7 / 20): SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow is scored below midpoint. Investor implication: insider signaling is not a strong confirming factor.
Macro Regime Fit (5 / 20): Beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity are scored low. Investor implication: the stock tracks market risk without a distinct regime tailwind in the rating's framework.
Forensic Balance Sheet (10 / 20): Altman Z of 1.06, Piotroski F of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5 are cited. Investor implication: the Altman Z reading sits in a range the source does not interpret for us; the Piotroski score is mid-range.

Valuation tradeoff: the market data shows P/E (TTM) of 39.7 and Forward P/E of 33.3 against EV/EBITDA of 4.7 and EPS (TTM) of 0.31. The high earnings multiple and low enterprise-value multiple point in different directions, so the valuation picture depends heavily on which earnings base is trusted. Upside drivers would need to come from margin recovery or cash-flow improvement, neither of which the rating currently sees.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector and Restaurants industry..8B. — for further business detail.

Revenue grew from $891.6M (FY 2023) to $1.22B (FY 2025), while operating income declined from $41.3M to $27.5M over the same span. Market data shows operating margin of 2.3%, net margin of 1.6%, and gross margin of 0% (as listed in source). ROIC is 3.6%. Per the forensic inputs cited in the RQD rating, Altman Z is 1.06, Piotroski F is 5/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. FCF has been negative in the two most recent periods shown.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case: Revenue expanded from $891.6M in FY 2023 to $1.22B in FY 2025 and the stock rose 8.31% on the latest session. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 4/20 (ROIC 3.6%, FCF yield -4.01%) and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $9.88 – $18.77 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case: Free cash flow was negative at -$31.0M in FY 2025 with an FCF yield of -4.01% and a Roarable Sell rating of 37. Investors must weigh 39.7x trailing P/E and 4.7x EV/EBITDA against 2.3% operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies are — Sector correlation and 2nd-order bottlenecks are — beyond the Consumer Discretionary / Restaurants classification.

Key Question #1: What is the company's EPS for each reported fiscal year, given that the financials show EPS as N/A?
Key Question #2: What is total debt for each period, since debt is listed as N/A across all periods?
Key Question #3: Why does cash fall from $33.3M to $21.2M while FCF remains negative, and how is the gap funded?

FWRG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to FWRG Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 20h ago

Are Options Traders Betting on a Big Move in First Watch Restaurant Group Stock?

Yahoo Finance report covering First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 23h ago

First Watch Restaurants: New Restaurants Are Having A Honeymoon (NASDAQ:FWRG)

Seeking Alpha report covering First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Estimates – NASDAQ:FWRG

TradingView report covering First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

First Watch Restaurant Group (NASDAQ:FWRG) Stock Price Up 5.4% - Here's Why

MarketBeat report covering First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Earnings To Watch: First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG) Q3 2026 -- GF Value Sees 102% Upside

Yahoo Finance report covering First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

Insiders At First Watch Restaurant Group Sold US$1.4m In Stock, Alluding To Potential Weakness

Simply Wall St report covering First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

First Watch earnings: what to look for from FWRG

TradingView report covering First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

Vanguard reports a passive stake in First Watch (FWRG), with voting power over 473,104 shares.

Stock Titan report covering First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

FWRG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $12.95?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON FWRG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

MI MidwestValue Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $14.91 (+17.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Revenue expanded from $891.6M in FY 2023 to $1.22B in FY 2025 and the stock rose 8.31% on the latest session.

The street is overcomplicating First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG). Revenue expanded from $891.6M in FY 2023 to $1.22B in FY 2025 and the stock rose 8.31% on the latest session.. With an RQD score of 38/100 (D-) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 10/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $13.76.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — FWRG's 10/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SK SkepticalCFA Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $10.32 (-19.0%)

Spot @ $12.74

Free cash flow was negative at -$31.0M in FY 2025 with an FCF yield of -4.01% and a Roarable Sell rating of 37.

I respect the product at First Watch Restaurant Group Inc., but the stock at $12.74 is a different story. Free cash flow was negative at -$31.0M in FY 2025 with an FCF yield of -4.01% and a Roarable Sell rating of 37.. FCF yield is -4.01% and RQD sits at 38/100 (D-) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?