First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 38/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
As of 2026-11-03, First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (NASDAQ: FWRG) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $12.95 (+1.65% 1D, market cap $786.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, FWRG ranks #753 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), FWRG carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 39.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.6%. By comparison, CNNE (Cannae Holdings Inc.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -10.6%, cap $743.4M) and BLMN (Bloomin' Brands Inc.) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 111.1x, ROIC 10.7%, cap $905.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FWRG leads on earnings multiple (39.7x) while BLMN leads on capital efficiency (10.7% ROIC).
Per FWRG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28, CIK 0001789940), First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. generated $1.22B in revenue (+20.3% YoY), $19.4M in net income, and -$31.0M in free cash flow against $1.74B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±11.9% realized swing band)
Altman Z-Score 1.06 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9
Capital intensity & 2.3% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table
While FWRG currently carries a cautious 38/100 (D-) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($11.38) and Max Pain ($13.60) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $19.71.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) advanced +1.65% to $12.95, trading at 35% of its 52-week range ($9.88 – $18.77). Stretched risk/reward at 40x P/E (4% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Yahoo Finance report covering First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Simply Wall St report covering First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stock Titan report covering First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Wingstop (WING) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of +5.88% and -4.23%, respectively, for the quarter ended September 2026. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +20.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FWRG today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FWRG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) ranks #753 by composite RQD confidence (38/100, grade D-) and #536 by equity capitalization ($786.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FWRG leads on earnings valuation at 39.7x trailing P/E, while BLMN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.7% ROIC and 70.2% gross margin. BH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with FWRG at 38/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FWRG
ACTIVE
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. | D- | 38/100 | 39.7x | — | 3.6% | +1.65% | $786.2M | Benchmark Subject |
| CNNE Cannae Holdings Inc. | E | 34/100 | — | 15.5% | -10.6% | +2.39% | $743.4M | /cnne-vs-fwrg → |
| BLMN Bloomin' Brands Inc. | C- | 60/100 | 111.1x | 70.2% | 10.7% | +3.12% | $905.0M | /blmn-vs-fwrg → |
| BH Biglari Holdings Inc. (Class B) | C- | 61/100 | — | 59.2% | -7.2% | -1.39% | $916.0M | /bh-vs-fwrg → |
| HDL SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD. | D | 46/100 | — | — | — | 0.00% | $643.8M | /hdl-vs-fwrg → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28), First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) reported GAAP revenue of $1.22B (+20.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.02B , and +37.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $19.4M, operating cash flow of $125.9M, and free cash flow of -$31.0M (-153.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, FWRG closed FY2025 with $1.74B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.06, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-28 | $1.22B | $19.4M | $125.9M | -$31.0M | $1.74B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-29 | $1.02B | $18.9M | $115.7M | -$12.2M | $1.51B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $891.6M | $25.4M | $95.3M | $95.3M | — | — |
As of 2026-11-03, First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (NASDAQ: FWRG) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $12.95 (+1.65% 1D, market cap $786.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, FWRG ranks #753 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), FWRG carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 39.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.6%. By comparison, CNNE (Cannae Holdings Inc.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -10.6%, cap $743.4M) and BLMN (Bloomin' Brands Inc.) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 111.1x, ROIC 10.7%, cap $905.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FWRG leads on earnings multiple (39.7x) while BLMN leads on capital efficiency (10.7% ROIC).
Per FWRG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28, CIK 0001789940), First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. generated $1.22B in revenue (+20.3% YoY), $19.4M in net income, and -$31.0M in free cash flow against $1.74B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
FWRG last traded at $12.95 (+1.65% on volume of 4,185,299 shares), positioning the stock +13.80% above its 50-day simple moving average ($11.38) and +4.52% above its 200-day simple moving average ($12.39). Across its 52-week range of $9.88 to $18.77, FWRG sits at the 34.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 69.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.9% ($11.41 to $14.49).
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 38/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $12.95 (+1.65% 1D, market capitalization $786.2M).
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector and Restaurants industry..8B. — for further business detail.
In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-28), First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) reported $1.22B in annual revenue (up from $1.02B in FY2024, +20.3% YoY) and $19.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($891.6M revenue, $25.4M net income) through FY2025, FWRG scaled operating cash flow to $125.9M and free cash flow to -$31.0M, backed by $1.74B in total assets against $0 in total debt.
Upstream and downstream dependencies are — Sector correlation and 2nd-order bottlenecks are — beyond the Consumer Discretionary / Restaurants classification.
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
Yahoo Finance report covering First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Simply Wall St report covering First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stock Titan report covering First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
The street is overcomplicating First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG). Revenue expanded from $891.6M in FY 2023 to $1.22B in FY 2025 and the stock rose 8.31% on the latest session.. With an RQD score of 38/100 (D-) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 10/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $13.76.
Both sides have a point here — FWRG's 10/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.
I respect the product at First Watch Restaurant Group Inc., but the stock at $12.74 is a different story. Free cash flow was negative at -$31.0M in FY 2025 with an FCF yield of -4.01% and a Roarable Sell rating of 37.. FCF yield is -4.01% and RQD sits at 38/100 (D-) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?
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